The approaching Thanksgiving timeframe of horse racing at Churchill Downs presents a unique opportunity for enthusiasts craving top-tier competition after the Breeders’ Cup World Championships have concluded. From Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 27) through Sunday, Nov. 30, the Louisville venue will feature nine stakes races, with the $600,000 Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare highlighting Friday’s program beneath the track’s iconic spires.
This 1 1/8-mile dirt contest for horses aged 3 years and up has attracted a competitive field of nine, notably including last year’s champion #6 Rattle N Roll (at 7-2 morning-line odds) and the 2025 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline victor #3 Hit Show (at 3-1). In the Grade 3 Hagyard Fayette Stakes held at Keeneland on Oct. 25, Hit Show edged out Rattle N Roll by a length and the 2025 Preakness Stakes second-place finisher #4 Gosger (at 4-1) by a length and a quarter over the same distance.
Gosger made his debut against more seasoned competitors in the Fayette and performed respectably. Joining him are fellow 3-year-olds #9 Magnitude (at 9-2), who won the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes, and #5 Chunk of Gold (at 10-1), the West Virginia Derby victor, both encountering older horses for the first time in the Clark.
My expectation is that the quality of the entrants and a recent subpar performance might lead to more attractive odds for #2 First Mission (at 5-1). This 5-year-old, sired by Street Sense, finished second in the 2023 Clark and has secured a couple of graded stakes victories over this distance, namely the 2024 Essex Handicap and the 2025 Oaklawn Handicap, both at Oaklawn Park. The performance he delivered in winning the Oaklawn Handicap by two lengths in April would likely suffice for a victory here, especially with trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat, who have an impressive 36% win rate together since the start of 2024, and 30% at Churchill.
After a promising spring, First Mission’s form declined, finishing second as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes in August, followed by a distant fourth-place finish behind Nevada Beach in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes in September. However, his record at Churchill Downs is strong, and he has shown positive signs in training for this race after a brief break. He should benefit from a favorable position behind several horses that prefer to run on or near the front. I plan to bet on First Mission to win if the odds are 4-1 or higher and include him in an exacta box with Rattle N Roll.
Betting Approach with a $10 Bankroll
$10 to win on #2 First Mission ($10)
How to place the bet: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $10 to win on #2
Betting Approach with a $30 Bankroll
$20 to win on #2 First Mission ($20)
How to place the bet: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $20 to win on #2
$5 exacta box: #2 First Mission, #6 Rattle N Roll ($10)
How to place the bet: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $5 exacta box 2,6
