The Atlantic Coast Conference’s worst-case scenario probably won’t materialize.
Sorry, James Madison, we don’t share your optimism about your unlikely bid for the College Football Playoff. Would it be amazing for the sport if conferences outside the power structure got two of the five automatic bids into the expanded 12-team playoff? Certainly. But let’s be honest. It’s improbable the selection committee would permit this. And, if it did occur, envision the maneuvers that would unfold to prevent its recurrence.
That’s precisely why we’re not concerned by the idea that the ACC could be shut out of the playoff, and neither should you.
First, let’s clarify: Miami needs a specific set of outcomes in the ACC’s eight remaining conference games to reach the conference championship game. Despite holding the highest ACC position in the CFP rankings, the Hurricanes will likely require some favorable circumstances to secure an at-large berth.
Yet, the ACC boasts four other teams featured in the latest AP poll. The numbers in Tuesday’s CFP rankings are unlikely to deviate significantly, despite Georgia Tech’s playoff prospects appearing slim.
Pitt, SMU and Virginia have a solid opportunity to compete in the conference title game. If one of those programs wins the ACC title — by far the most probable outcome — that team will most likely rank higher than James Madison in the final CFP rankings.
Below is our updated CFP projection with only one week remaining in the regular season.
1. Ohio State (11-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes didn’t have to depend on WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to easily dispatch Rutgers. Still, they’ll need them against Michigan on Saturday and once more in the Big Ten title game — assuming Ohio State wins against the Wolverines.
It’s simple to determine the receivers’ absence against the Scarlet Knights was precautionary, but if they’re limited or unavailable against Michigan, it greatly benefits the Wolverines. Ohio State doesn’t have as much depth after their star wide receivers … although few teams would, given how dominant they are.
2. Indiana, (11-0, at-large)
Indiana stands as the safest pick of the three undefeated squads to reach 12-0. Yes, it’s a rivalry match, but the Hoosiers are heavily favored by four touchdowns over Purdue. There’s a complicated scenario involving the Big Ten’s tiebreakers that might lead to a Michigan vs. Ohio State title game following their Week 14 contest. However, that would entail the biggest upset of the season. We don’t foresee that occurring.
3. Texas A&M (11-0, projected SEC champion)
The Aggies engaged in a straightforward game against Samford. Marcel Reed contributed three touchdown passes in the initial quarter before exiting, and the Aggies held a 31-0 advantage at halftime. Samford — standing at 1-11 overall at the FCS level — managed 77 total yards across 48 plays.
The challenge escalates on Friday as the Aggies visit Texas. A defeat might remove A&M from the SEC championship game for the second straight season.
4. Georgia (10-1, at-large)
Georgia faced an FBS opponent in Week 13; however, Charlotte stands as one of the weaker teams at the highest level of college football. Gunner Stockton’s statistical performance wasn’t remarkable, yet it didn’t need to be. Crucial games against Georgia Tech and, potentially, the SEC title game might still propel him to New York as a Heisman finalist.
The Bulldogs may likewise encounter a dilemma. Naturally, they aspire to compete for an SEC title. Yet, they could receive a first-round bye at 11-1. A bye at 11-2, coupled with a loss in the SEC title game, probably isn’t in the cards.
Here’s the latest College Football Playoff projection. (Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports)
No. 12 Tulane (9-2, projected American champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (10-1, projected Big 12 champion)
The Green Wave appear well-positioned to host the American title game. Based on tiebreakers, Tulane will host the conference title game with a home win against Charlotte on Saturday — assuming, of course, they remain the conference’s top-ranked team in the CFP rankings. Regardless of whether Tulane faces North Texas or Navy, the Green Wave should be favored due to home-field advantage.
Tech had the week off in Week 13 and travels to West Virginia on Saturday. The path to secure a spot in the Big 12 title game is uncomplicated. A win for the Red Raiders means they will be vying for the conference title and a possible first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
No. 11 SMU (8-3, projected ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1, at-large)
Welcome SMU to the playoff conversation. The Mustangs visit Cal on Saturday evening in a game that is no guaranteed victory. Nonetheless, a win propels SMU into the ACC title game, where it might face Virginia if the Cavaliers defeat Virginia Tech at home.
Ole Miss travels to Mississippi State on Black Friday for a game that seemingly has become secondary to the questions surrounding Lane Kiffin’s potential coaching move. And that is unfortunate for Ole Miss’ players. This is a remarkable season, and one can argue that Ole Miss is a national title contender, especially given a favorable playoff seeding.
No. 10 Alabama (9-2, at-large) at No. 7 Oregon (10-1, at-large)
Distinct from Georgia, the sole scenario that prevents Alabama from reaching the SEC title game is a loss to Auburn. And a loss to Auburn would knock the Tide out of the playoff picture entirely. The situation could become complex for Alabama if the Tide lose in the SEC title game and end at 10-3, but that is a concern to address should it occur.
Oregon likewise has a challenging game in Week 14 as they travel to Washington. The Huskies haven’t been ranked since their rainy loss to Wisconsin, yet they are a strong football team capable of making that game significantly closer than Oregon’s victory over USC.
We’re keen to observe how the committee interprets that win over USC, as well. Oregon has been ranked below Ole Miss and Texas Tech due to a lack of victories over top-25 teams; however, they now hold wins over teams the committee ranked in each of the past two weeks. Will they receive a boost on Tuesday evening for defeating the team that the committee had ranked at No. 15?
No. 9 Oklahoma (9-2, at-large) at No. 8 Notre Dame (9-2, at-large)
Indeed, we’ve dropped Oklahoma one spot following a home victory over Missouri. Oklahoma is a good team. Oklahoma’s defense excels. However, Notre Dame presents a more complete team — even if Syracuse is not currently the ideal football team — compared to the Sooners.
And we anticipate the committee will penalize Oklahoma should its offense falter again against LSU. Should Notre Dame dominate Stanford and Oklahoma defeat LSU by 10 or fewer points, it warrants consideration. We wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of the committee swapping Notre Dame and Oklahoma this week.
