The U.S. national squad is four months away from its 2026 World Cup appearance on home soil, yet details about its path to the 2030 World Cup are already emerging.
On Friday, CONCACAF, the regional football governing body, revealed the qualification structure for the subsequent competition.
A key revelation is that the intense qualifying matches between the United States and its major rival, Mexico—where the “Dos a Cero” phenomenon originated—are likely coming to an end.
The expansion of the World Cup is the reason. With the event growing to 48 teams, the confederation now has six direct qualification spots, double its previous allocation. Consequently, CONCACAF’s customary six-nation final phase, historically called the “hexagonal,” is no longer viable.
Instead, the concluding phase will comprise three groups of four teams, with both the first and second-place finishers gaining entry to the World Cup. The 2030 championship will be hosted by Spain, Portugal, and Morocco, alongside centennial celebration games held in Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay.
Barring an unusual turn of events in CONCACAF’s initial qualifying stage, the United States and Mexico are unlikely to be placed in the same final-round group. This implies an end to the spirited contests in front of American supporters in MLS venues or the significant encounters at Mexico City’s renowned Estadio Azteca, known for its high altitude.
The United States defeated Mexico by a score of 2-0 in four consecutive World Cup qualification campaigns in Columbus, Ohio, before suffering a loss there in 2016. Half a decade later, the “Dos a Cero” scoreline reappeared, this time in Cincinnati.
The American team has never secured a victory in a qualifying match held in Mexico.
Naturally, the teams from the U.S. and Mexico will still compete in tournaments like the Gold Cup, Nations League, and exhibition games — however, these encounters will probably not have a World Cup qualification spot on the line.
Should everything proceed as anticipated, the United States, Mexico, and Canada are expected to lead each of the three groups in the final stage.
The competitive rivalry between the U.S. and Mexico might soon lack the crucial element of World Cup qualification.
(John Dorton/ISI Photos/USSF via Getty Images)
As designated host nations, none of those particular teams were required to participate in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Panama, Haiti, and Curacao secured their spots via CONCACAF, while Jamaica and Suriname are set to contend in an upcoming six-nation FIFA playoff.
Due to logistical complications stemming from the global pandemic, CONCACAF found it necessary to modify the 2022 World Cup qualification structure. Rather than a hexagonal, the confederation organized an octagonal, where eight teams vied for three direct entries into the 32-team championship. (Canada clinched the top position, with Mexico and the U.S. trailing).
The enlarged World Cup, however, instigated more substantial modifications.
For the 2030 tournament, CONCACAF nations positioned between 14th and 35th in the rankings will participate in two-match playoff series (determined by their current standings) during September-October 2027. The 11 victors from these matchups will then advance to the second round, alongside the region’s 13 highest-ranked teams, with this phase scheduled for late 2027 and early 2028.
These 24 squads will be segmented into six quartets, where each team will compete against every other team in its respective group, both at home and away, totaling six contests per side. CONCACAF did not outline the methods for group formation, but according to standard FIFA rankings, the United States and Mexico would likely spearhead different groups and be strong contenders to secure first place.
Presently, the U.S. stands at 15th in the rankings, Mexico at 16th, with Canada at 29th and Panama at 33rd. No other team from the CONCACAF region appears within the top 50.
The teams that secure first and second place in their second-round groups will progress to the concluding phase scheduled for 2028-29. Should both the United States and Mexico emerge victorious in their respective second-round groups, they would, with near certainty, be the top seeds in separate final-round groups. (However, CONCACAF has not yet specified the exact procedures for group allocation.)
If one of them falters in that second stage and concludes group play in second place, the U.S. and Mexico might find themselves together in the same final-round four-team group.
In that particular scenario, arrange your travel logistics for Ohio and Mexico City.
