When the initial schedule dropped, be honest, skepticism arose.
A ‘Sunday Night Football’ vibe for an NFC East face-off wasn’t exactly thrilling, especially considering the Cowboys’ performance in 2024.
Maybe the matchup is still as unexciting as initially perceived, but I’ll reluctantly concede that it’s evolved into one of the more intriguing Week 1 contests from a wagering standpoint.
Odds are presented by BetMGM.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 47.5)
We’re presented with a point spread practically begging for inclusion in a “6-point teaser!”
Consider the choice: Philadelphia at -2.5 at the teaser cost of roughly -280 (coupled with another strong teaser selection later in Week 1), or opting for the Eagles moneyline at -430?
This scenario suggests the potential for the line to edge upwards, surpassing the critical -9 threshold, before Thursday, as bettors – despite having ample time – rush to place wagers on the NFL season’s curtain-raiser.
The fact that the line has surpassed the key figure of -7 is due to the Cowboys’ recent trade involving Micah Parsons.
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We can only speculate on Parsons’ potential impact on Thursday night had he secured a new contract or ended his hold-in, particularly as we remain uncertain if a back issue will sideline him for the Packers’ Sunday game. However, had contract negotiations been successful, and he was absent solely due to injury, would the line have escalated from -6.5 to -8.5 as it has?
Like any contest, the point spread mirrors the market’s assessment of each team. At THE WINDOW, we employ a user-friendly scale out of 100 to gauge market evaluations of each team.
A point spread of -8 positions the Eagles in the upper-60s (ranking third in the NFL, trailing the Ravens and Bills). While this may seem to underestimate the reigning champions, it factors in some leeway given the talent Philadelphia shed during the offseason. With Philadelphia firmly in that elite tier, the visiting team would need a mid-40s rating (below league average) to be a greater than touchdown underdog.
The largely unfavorable perception of Jerry Jones’ decision to trade Parsons may resonate with your own assessment of each side, but Parsons contributed just two tackles and zero sacks in Cowboys-Eagles matchups last year. Against a run-oriented team, what significant impact could he have, even at peak performance? Hypothetically, for this particular game, acquiring Kenny Clark to bolster the defensive line’s interior might benefit Dallas more, given the emphasis on stopping the run in this encounter.
Finally, the last instance of the Cowboys being perceived as a below-average team occurred last season… but that was without Dak Prescott. With Prescott at the helm, even amidst sub-.500 starts, the Cowboys were typically regarded as an above-average squad.
Despite lingering concerns about the depth of the Dallas offensive line, Prescott should be capable of keeping the Cowboys competitive longer than many anticipate. Especially those bettors preoccupied with the fallout from the Parsons trade.
Bet: Cowboys +8.5
Cowboys-Eagles player props
Dak Prescott over 6.5 rushing yards (-110)
During their impressive 12-5 season in 2023, Prescott rekindled his use of his legs, a year removed from suffering a fracture in 2022. He surpassed 10 rushing yards in 11 contests and recorded three or more carries in nine games (indicating that, on two occasions, a single carry was sufficient to exceed 6.5 yards), suggesting that the injury hadn’t affected his approach.
In his shortened 2024 season, Prescott appeared less eager to scramble, possibly dealing with lingering discomfort that ultimately resulted in a hamstring tear during a Week 9 game where he ran three times for 30 yards.
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Merely reading about that injury might deter some from running altogether, but if the betting market is setting this line low as a result, we’ll back Prescott to take off a few times to evade the Eagles’ pass rush.
Jake Ferguson longest reception over 15.5 yards (-115)
If there’s a vulnerability to exploit in the Eagles’ defense, it’s through the middle of their secondary. Second-round pick Andrew Mukuba is listed on the injury report with a hamstring issue, potentially leaving Sydney Brown as the default victor of the camp battle at safety. Brown’s 83 total snaps in 2024 inspire limited confidence in his ability to effectively cover against stronger opponents.
Ferguson was targeted 52 times in the seven games he played while Prescott was healthy, but when Cooper Rush took snaps, Ferguson saw just 21 targets in the final seven games. We anticipate a return to a respectable volume on Thursday. Even among those 21 targets from Rush, Ferguson broke free for a long reception on four occasions.
Combine Prescott’s willingness to target him with Ferguson’s knack for stretching the middle of the field, and we’ll wager that a long reception is likely.
A.J. Brown under 71.5 receiving yards (-115)
Towards the latter portion of last season, Brown’s receiving yardage line gradually decreased from the high-80s down through the 70s, eventually settling at 64.5, 68.5, and 67.5 in the Eagles’ final three playoff games. This adjustment occurred as Brown averaged 57.2 yards per game over the Eagles’ final nine games, hitting the under at a 6-3 rate.
Dallas Goedert’s return from injury reduced the available receiving yardage for Brown, who was also dealing with an injury late in the season. Moreover, we’re anticipating a surge in production from DeVonta Smith this season.
Perhaps a preseason hamstring injury is insignificant (Brown is no longer on the injury report), but if he’s frequently matched up against Trevon Diggs, Jalen Hurts will have more favorable options elsewhere in the passing game, especially early in the season as offenses catch up to defenses.
Anytime touchdown
Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson (+260 or better)
We’d love to “kill two birds with one stone” by wagering on Ferguson to score a long TD, as the same reasoning regarding the matchup applies to both his likelihood of scoring and his chance of a long reception. Surprisingly, Ferguson didn’t find the end zone last season but scored five TDs in his breakout second season in 2023, when Prescott was fully healthy. That 29.4% hit rate translates to implied odds of +240, and Ferguson can be found as high as +333, which would represent a margin exceeding 6%.
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (+155 or better)
Quick – who led the Eagles in receiving TDs last season?
It was indeed Smith, who tallied eight touchdowns in 13 regular-season games, adding another in the Super Bowl. If Brown is drawing the attention of the Cowboys’ top cornerback, Smith’s agility should overwhelm the combination of DaRon Bland and Kaiir Elam, particularly near the goal line, making him a scoring target that Hurts became accustomed to targeting last season. Widely available for +180, that’s a price worth pursuing on Smith, who is a more probable scorer than his higher-profile teammate.
Long shot: WR KaVontae Turpin (+450 or better)
The Cowboys only provided Turpin with a pair of receiving touchdowns in 2024, but the 16 carries he received towards the end of last season indicate the Cowboys were actively seeking ways to get the ball into the speedster’s hands by any means necessary.
Based on simple math, over the past two seasons, Turpin has registered six offensive touchdowns in 33 games, resulting in a rate of 18%. Even without adjusting for his involvement in late-season game plans and Prescott’s health, the implied odds on that number are +450. Considering that a reasonable starting point, Turpin can be found for as long as +850, and we haven’t even considered the pair of return touchdowns (one punt, one kick) that enhance the value of our lone touchdown long shot for Thursday night.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
