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Bill Connelly
We’ve entered what’s commonly referred to as the “data analysis phase” of the 2025-26 European football schedule. It’s generally accepted (by data enthusiasts, naturally) that it requires around 10 games for expected goals (xG) metrics to offer a reasonably dependable, predictive overview of a particular team. While this is more of an approximate range of eight to fifteen games, the European campaign has certainly moved into that zone. The French Ligue 1 and Spanish LaLiga have each completed 12 game weeks so far, while the English Premier League and Italian Serie A are at 11, and the German Bundesliga has reached 10.
It’s mid-November, we’re in the midst of the third international break of the year. As we anticipate whether Nigeria and Congo DR can maintain their aspirations for World Cup qualification or if the determined Faroe Islands can engineer an improbable qualification, this is a great time to take a breath and examine what the statistical insights reveal about the club season thus far.
Acknowledging that the top-tier teams often possess superior finishers (and might, as a result, slightly surpass their xG statistics), that I’m opting for overall xG data (rather than non-penalty xG) for the sake of simplifying data management, and that injuries clearly influence what the data indicates, here’s a league-by-league assessment of the current situation, roughly 30% into the 2025-26 season.
Premier League: Arsenal exhibit explosive form, while Haaland-dependent Man City could pose a threat
Liverpool exemplifies perfectly the rationale for waiting until the approximate 10-game mark before forming judgments. Back in August, they defeated Newcastle United 3-2, even though they had a minus-0.3 xG difference (xGD), and edged out Arsenal 1-0, despite an xG margin that was practically negligible (plus-0.04 xGD). In October, they were defeated by Chelsea and Manchester United with identical 2-1 scores, despite a combined xGD of plus-2.4.
Chance has played a significant role at Anfield, but with 11 games recorded, we can assert that Liverpool’s current league placement is relatively fair: They’re fifth in xGD, and with 18, they currently possess the fifth-highest point total.
As demonstrated in the graph above, which contrasts teams’ xGD against their points per game, Liverpool have essentially attained what xG analysis suggests they should have. Although they’re currently eighth due to goal differential, the other four teams within the 18-point range have exceeded expectations thus far, as have fourth-placed Sunderland with 19 points. All are likely to see their performance levels adjust downwards.
The league’s top three positions are held by the teams with the three highest xG differentials, which is logical. But Liverpool’s primary competition for a top-four spot may actually be Crystal Palace.
The Eagles are currently in 10th place with 17 points, only two points away from the top four. Their plus-6.6 xGD to date is remarkably similar to third-placed Chelsea (plus-7.0). Their relationship with xG has been quite peculiar this year: They’ve only converted 14 goals from shots valued at 19.3 xG, but they’ve also conceded just nine goals from shots valued at 12.7. This has led to some strange outcomes, including draws against Bournemouth (plus-2.4 xGD), Sunderland (plus-1.4), and Chelsea (minus-1.0). Regardless, they’re only slightly behind where their performance suggests they should be, and if they keep creating and allowing the same quality of opportunities, they’ll be contenders for a Champions League position.
At the summit, Arsenal are in a strong position, leading the league by four points with a cumulative plus-4.5 difference over Manchester City in xGD. It’s clear that they’ve been the league’s (and potentially Europe’s) best team so far. However, trends indicate that City are rapidly improving: Their average xGD over their first five games was plus-0.60, but it’s increased to plus-0.96 over the last six. Six games aren’t definitive, but considering the consistent dominance of City, with six titles in eight seasons, we might tend to give them the benefit of the doubt.
City have relied heavily on Erling Haaland thus far — he’s scored 14 league goals, while no other City player has scored more than one (excluding Burnley’s Maxime Estève, who unfortunately scored two own goals in City’s 5-1 victory). However, his scoring rate isn’t excessively high, considering his track record and the quality of his shots. He’s converted those 14 goals from shots worth 11.1 xG, indicating that he’s outperformed xG by about 26%, a level he maintained throughout the 2022-23 campaign.
There could still be a regression — and the impact of a Haaland injury is uncertain — but if he’s on the field, City could challenge Arsenal.
German Bundesliga: Bayern are exceeding expectations, and the top-four battle could be intense
In the Premier League chart above, we observed a consistent trend line. In the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich’s dominance has been so profound that it … disrupted the chart slightly.
Based on their impressive plus-2.0 xGD per game, Bayern should be averaging roughly 3.1 points per game, which is, of course, unattainable. They were unbeaten in all competitions until their recent 2-2 draw against Union Berlin, and even that performance, considered subpar by their standards, resulted in a plus-0.5 xGD.
We’re accustomed to Bayern’s dominance in the Bundesliga, but they seldom reach this level, and when they do, it’s generally due to their victories against the league’s weaker teams. Perhaps the most intimidating aspect of their current form is that they’ve already played the teams currently in second (RB Leipzig), third (Borussia Dortmund), fifth (Bayer Leverkusen), sixth (Hoffenheim), seventh (Eintracht Frankfurt), and eighth (Werder Bremen). They won those six games by a combined score of 22-2.
Since Bayern essentially broke the chart, let’s examine how the Bundesliga appears without them:
That’s somewhat clearer, indicating that, despite their fifth-place position, Bayer Leverkusen are probably the league’s second-best team — particularly given their xGD of plus-1.0 per game since dismissing Erik ten Hag on Sept. 1 (and plus-1.3 against teams other than Bayern). However, they’ve dropped more points than their performance suggests, and there should be at least four other teams significantly involved in the competition for a top-four finish.
Borussia Dortmund are in a reasonable position, but their xGD over the past five league games is only plus-0.2. That’s a small sample, but it’s not encouraging. Should they drop a few more points moving forward, they could find themselves in a tight race with Leverkusen and slightly underachieving Eintracht Frankfurt, as well as current overachievers RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart.
At the other end of the standings, xG could offer some hope for Mainz. They’ve only gained five points from their first 10 games and have fallen from nearly reaching the Champions League last season to 17th in the table. However, their xGD is a relatively healthy 11th, suggesting that their results may improve going forward.
Spain’s LaLiga: The top of the table lacks excitement
LaLiga consistently offers compelling individual narratives, and this season is no exception. Xabi Alonso’s efforts to establish a structured team dynamic at Real Madrid, a club historically known for prioritizing individual talent, have been (and will continue to be) captivating. Similarly, Hansi Flick’s attempts to maintain his risky high defensive line at Barcelona, despite midfield injuries and the second-year regression issues he previously encountered at Bayern, are noteworthy.
Atletico Madrid have alternated between impressive and disappointing performances for nearly three months, while Villarreal have surged to third place, partly due to a late-career resurgence (in all aspects except finishing) from 30-year-old Nicolas Pépé. Espanyol are on track for their best season in years, and although Santi Cazorla and Real Oviedo are struggling, their return to the top division remains a remarkable story.
The league offers numerous narratives, but it can occasionally produce uninspiring competitions, and this season is following a similar pattern.
Real Madrid are only three points ahead of Barcelona, but their comfortable xGD advantage suggests that their lead is legitimate. Meanwhile, there’s already a five-point gap between the fourth- and fifth-place teams. The data suggests that third-place Villarreal have overachieved and could regress, but they lead Real Betis by six points, Espanyol by eight, and Athletic Club and Getafe by nine.
With eight teams within six points of the relegation zone, we might witness a desperate battle at that end — and if xGD is any indication, ninth-place Sevilla, the league’s biggest xG overachiever, could join that struggle as well. However, the hierarchy is quite clear at the top.
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Yamal situation playground stuff’ from Barcelona and Spanish FA
Julien Lauren believes the Lamine Yamal situation could be “easily figured out” if both Barcelona and the Spanish FA “speak to each other” to sort it out.
Italy’s Serie A: Inter are clearly the best team … and managerial changes may boost Juventus and Atalanta
Statistical analysis doesn’t seem to hold much sway in Serie A. Aside from Inter’s dominance at the top, there’s little correlation between the league table and the xG differentials.
Inter (with a plus-12.0 xGD for the season) lead by a significant margin, but they’re tied at 24 points with an exceptionally overachieving Roma (plus-2.2), who have conceded just five goals from shots valued at 12.4 xG. The teams in third (AC Milan), fourth (Napoli), and fifth (Bologna) have also been underwhelming based on their underlying metrics.
Conversely, Juventus rank second in xG differential but sixth in points and seventh in goal differential, while Atalanta are fourth in xG differential but 13th in the table, due to an extraordinary seven draws in 11 games. (They had a positive xGD in six of those seven draws.) Both clubs have already dismissed their managers — Juve replaced Igor Tudor with Luciano Spalletti on Oct. 27, and Atalanta replaced Ivan Juric earlier this week. If both teams simply perform closer to their expected levels and convert their chances, their new managers will appear to be geniuses, regardless of whether that’s actually the case.
Further down the table, Genoa are currently in 18th place with an xGD (plus-2.4) that’s better than Roma’s! In fact, all three of the teams currently in the relegation zone (Genoa, Hellas Verona, and Fiorentina) rank 11th or higher in xGD.
This is somewhat illogical, but if data becomes a more significant factor in Italy, we could witness considerable shifts in the standings. Current projections certainly suggest this. Inter are heavily favored to win the Scudetto, but five other teams have at least a 33% chance of finishing in the top four, and three more, including Atalanta, have an 8.3% chance or higher. That’s nearly half the league with a legitimate opportunity to qualify for Champions League play. Meanwhile, last-place Fiorentina only have a 29.2% chance of being relegated, and six teams are all between 46.8% and 54.2%.
Serie A should provide all the drama that LaLiga lacks, even if we don’t have a compelling title race.
Ligue 1: Marseille are playing like strong contenders … but it might not matter
It’s safe to assume that we won’t believe Ligue 1 has a genuine title race until March or perhaps even April. Until then, Paris Saint-Germain will remain overwhelming favorites. Even now, with just a two-point lead over Marseille and Lens, statistical models give them a 93.6% chance of winning their 11th title in 13 years.
This is understandable. We recognize PSG’s immense talent, and due to a significant number of injuries and coach Luis Enrique’s continued focus on developing exciting teenage talents, only three PSG players have started at least 10 of 12 league games, and only four have played more than 61% of the total minutes. They’re taking “squad rotation” to unprecedented levels, yet they still lead the league. That speaks volumes.
While Lens appear to be performing at an unsustainable level, Marseille are consistently playing exceptionally well.
Marseille’s performances have varied significantly. They’ve played five games with an xGD of at least plus-1.7 (all wins), struggled in losses to Lens (minus-1.1 xGD) and Lyon (minus-1.6), and were fortunate in a win over Auxerre (minus-0.7). Despite this inconsistency, Marseille’s xGD is nearly two goals higher than PSG’s for the season, and their 1-0 win over PSG was well-deserved (plus-0.5 xGD). Considering the season began with significant squad turnover and coach Roberto De Zerbi has also rotated his squad extensively — no one has started more than 10 of 12 games, and 25 have started at least once — this is quite impressive.
Is it enough to dethrone PSG? Probably not, but I anticipate they’ll remain in contention for some time.
We’ve examined the major five leagues, but let’s go a step further. I wanted to look at Portugal’s Primeira Liga and the Netherlands’ Eredivisie, partly because I appreciate charts and partly because I wanted to check on Ajax.
Ajax have been in an unusual situation recently. After four consecutive Eredivisie titles between 2018-19 and 2021-22, they fell to third in 2022-23, then fifth in 2023-24, failing to make a significant impact in UEFA competitions in either season. Last season, they rebounded and appeared poised to secure a surprising league title before earning just five points from their final five games and finishing one point behind PSV Eindhoven.
The effects of that disappointing finish seem to have lingered, as they’ve earned zero points from four Champions League games, with a combined score of 14-1 against them. Their domestic form has been nearly as poor.
Ajax are currently fourth in the table, and although they’re already 11 points behind league-leading PSV, they’re also fortunate — they’re eighth in xG differential. They’ve had a positive xGD in only six games, and they were fortunate to earn six points from the six games in which they had a negative xGD.
This appears to be an even weaker Ajax team than the one we saw in 2023-24; you might have to go back to the mid-1960s to find an Ajax team this average.
