The English Red Roses have been the leading team in the World Rugby Women’s Rankings for nearly half a decade, but their place in the summit is now in jeopardy as they approach the WRWC 2025 semi-finals.
Under the leadership of Simon Middleton, and presently John Mitchell, who remains undefeated as the Red Roses’ head coach, England has appeared invulnerable in the standings.
In October of 2024, after securing consecutive WXV 1 championships, the Red Roses achieved the highest rating ever recorded – across both men’s and women’s teams – in the system designed to rank the world’s elite teams.
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Their WXV 1 title-clinching victory over Canada propelled their rating to 97.56 points, surpassing the achievements of the esteemed All Blacks team from 2011-15 and the current Springboks squad.
They became the first team to surpass the 97-point threshold and have maintained their position above that mark, even increasing their rating slightly to 97.76.
However, their position at the top of the rankings is now at stake as the four highest-ranked teams globally are preparing to compete at Ashton Gate in Bristol.
Current world champions New Zealand will face Canada, ranked second behind England, in the first of the two semi-final matches, while England will reignite their rivalry with France on the subsequent day.
England possesses a substantial lead of 7.63 points over Canada, but with Rugby World Cup matches carrying double the weight in the rankings, there exists a possibility, albeit a slim one, that they could relinquish their long-held, number one status.
For a change at the top to occur for the first time since November 2020, France must overcome their rivals from across the English Channel by a margin exceeding 15 points.
A victory of this scale would result in six rating points being awarded to France and six points being deducted from England’s total, with the overall effect of the 12-point shift potentially seeing Les Bleues claim the top spot for the first time – provided that Canada does not defeat the Black Ferns by a similarly significant margin. Should Canada also achieve a victory exceeding 15 points, they, not France, would supplant England at No.1.
Considering England’s unbroken streak of 16 victories against France since 2018 and their ongoing 31-match winning streak against all opponents, the likelihood of this scenario materializing is minimal.
However, should they experience such an unexpected setback and fail to achieve their objective of securing a first Women’s Rugby World Cup title since 2014, England would equal their lowest-ever position of third place.
New Zealand is also susceptible, as a defeat exceeding 15 points would cause them to fall to an all-time low of fourth.
If the semi-finals unfold as predicted, with England and New Zealand both securing victories to set up a rematch of the RWC 2021 and 2017 finals, England will retain their top ranking with an unchanged rating.
In the meantime, the Black Ferns would ascend to second place, with the margin between first and second potentially shrinking to 5.59 points.
