Following the declaration that Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas will be competing for the nascent Cadillac team, there are six vacant positions remaining on the 2026 F1 starting grid.
While some teams are anticipated to uphold their existing driver pairings, even if after considerable behind-the-scenes negotiation, others are understandably the subject of considerable speculation. Within the broader Red Bull organisation, only Max Verstappen possesses a contract extending beyond 2025; the remaining three drivers’ futures are uncertain due to internal conflicts, executive whims, and Red Bull’s perpetually present policy of promoting or dismissing young drivers.
Pierre Gasly will remain with Alpine, but the identity of the driver in the second seat appears to largely hinge on Flavio Braitore’s disposition on any particular day.
Mercedes
George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Formula 1 via Getty Images
Treating individuals sternly to maintain their enthusiasm? Not precisely, but Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff prefers to maintain flexibility and rarely rushes into long-term agreements. As you may remember, he engaged in protracted contractual negotiations with Lewis Hamilton throughout 2023, culminating in a ‘one plus one’ arrangement that Lewis ultimately found unsatisfactory. Consequently, he now races in red.
Currently, both Mercedes seats are vacant for 2026, with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli’s current agreements nearing their conclusion—in Antonelli’s instance, a one-year contract. Wolff is known to have been in discussions with Verstappen and his representatives, but Max has judiciously decided to remain in his current position for the upcoming year and assess the competitive landscape under the updated technical regulations.
Russell, starting from a disadvantageous position, discovered himself in a stronger bargaining position during the summer, stating in Spa that he has “nothing to be concerned about.” He remains “somewhat managed and controlled by Mercedes,” therefore securing a contract for 2026 and beyond is believed to be simply a matter of resolving minor details.
Considering his performance thus far this season in an unpredictable vehicle, it would be presumptuous to suggest that any other driver could perform better.
Antonelli is on less secure ground performance-wise, but Mercedes’ return to a previous rear-suspension geometry appears to have boosted his confidence. Wolff and Mercedes have invested considerable time and effort in Antonelli’s career, and despite the sunk cost fallacy, it would be premature to dismiss him after only one season.
‘Benching’ Antonelli for a season and hiring a more seasoned driver to partner Russell is among the less probable scenarios. It would further erode his long-term confidence – and, as with Russell, there are few alternatives who could step in and perform better.
A comeback for Mick Schumacher is highly improbable, and current reserve driver Frederik Vesti’s future in single-seaters is more likely to involve exclusively electric power.
Red Bull
Yuki Tsunoda, RB F1 Team
Photo by: Peter Fox / Getty Images
Yuki Tsunoda is currently navigating a precarious situation in the second Red Bull racing seat. Despite the abundance of insincere pronouncements made by senior figures within the organisation, including former team principal Christian Horner, the events of this season have only served to reinforce the perception that this is a team focused on one car and one driver.
Moreover, the team has developed an unfortunate and unwarranted habit of unfairly criticising the second driver, holding them accountable for its own shortcomings. In the past year alone, Sergio Perez and Liam Lawson have been publicly criticised, and Tsunoda has only avoided joining them due to the dwindling pool of potential replacements.
Consequently, Tsunoda perseveres, still burdened with an older specification of a challenging and problematic car.
During the final week of the summer break, segments of the internet became intensely interested in the prospect of four-time IndyCar champion Alex Palou – currently entangled in a $30 million lawsuit with McLaren – replacing Tsunoda next season. The story originated from a speculative piece in the Indianapolis Star, citing unnamed “sources” who claimed Red Bull was interested.
Palou is known to aspire to an F1 drive, but both he and his management team have swiftly denied any such discussions. Is he so determined to transition to F1 that he would terminate his 2026 Chip Ganassi Racing IndyCar contract and accept one of the least desirable seats on the grid?
Isack Hadjar is another possibility, but he has already openly expressed his reluctance. Red Bull’s next option in terms of its driver-development program is Arvid Lindblad – but, while he secured the ‘rookie’ slot in FP1 at Silverstone this year due to a superlicence exemption, he is more likely to be initially promoted to Racing Bulls.
Could Liam Lawson have a second opportunity?
Racing Bulls
Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team, Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls Team
Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool
Both Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson are currently under one-year agreements, Lawson as a result of his unsuccessful association with Red Bull’s main team, and Hadjar because certain individuals within the broader organisation held reservations about his capabilities.
Following a shaky start in Melbourne, Hadjar has delivered several humble pie packages via express delivery to those who doubted him earlier in the season. He has benefited from a relatively well-behaved car, and he has outperformed Lawson, who is still in the process of regaining his confidence.
It is believed that Hadjar is strongly opposed to being promoted to the main team at this time – and rightfully so. However, despite partnering with the 22 Ventures management company, which also oversees the careers of footballers Kylian Mbappe and Bukayo Saka, he remains a product of the Red Bull system and may be compelled to accept the position.
Alpine
Franco Colapinto, Alpine
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images
Among the undesirable opportunities available in Formula 1, an Alpine ride is second only to the Red Bull garage alongside Verstappen. Gasly, a previous consumer of that dangerous substance, has signed up for 2026, however, the second seat is potentially available for anyone with a strong enough character.
Jack Doohan remains part of the Alpine setup, but it is thought that he is doubtful to return to the cockpit any time soon. Franco Colapinto, who replaced him early this season, was initially believed to be on a five-race evaluation deal, but those counting on their fingers will soon run out.
De facto team principal Flavio Briatore remains hard to read when asked what the deal is, giving a different response each time, like a malfunctioning set of kitchen scales. It’s understood that Colapinto, whose confidence seems to diminish every time he drives the A525, is effectively on a race-by-race arrangement – so he could find himself going the way of Doohan at any moment.
It’s like F1’s equivalent of The Pit and the Pendulum, albeit with Briatore rather than Vincent Price at the controls.
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