Fantasy Basketball: Karabell’s “Do Not Draft” List (Ball, Morant, Embiid)

Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball achieved an individual best of 25.2 points per game during the last season, alongside 7.4 assists per game and 3.8 three-pointers per game. Those statistics hold significant appeal in the realm of fantasy basketball, though a broader view is required.

Other players, like David Nwaba and MarJon Beauchamp, managed to accumulate a higher point total last season. Dalano Banton and Frank Jackson contributed more assists. Cameron Reddish successfully landed more three-point shots. In the final count, 297 individuals participated in more NBA contests than Ball over the past season, with 177 accumulating more on-court minutes.

This recurring pattern of prolonged absence is not unfamiliar to Ball, who displays an impressive level of talent, orchestrating the offense with finesse and demonstrating numerous strengths, even if maintaining consistent health and availability isn’t among them. During his rookie year, having been selected as the No. 3 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, he appeared in 51 matchups, followed by an unexpected showing of 75 contests in his subsequent season. Over the three most recent seasons, Ball has participated in 105 total games. His 2024-25 season came to an end during March, with surgical interventions addressing concerns with both his ankle and wrist.

Ball, at 24 years of age, demonstrates high productivity, though, frankly, a total of 105 games over three seasons? When factoring in playoff games, Indiana Pacers substitutes James Johnson and Isaiah Jackson played a combined total of 102 games last season alone!

We’ve addressed Ball sufficiently, with current projections placing him as a third- or fourth-round selection. Though it is somewhat optimistic, I intend to pass, given the substantial array of reliable and effective players accessible. We are all well-aware of Ball’s exceptional skillset, but exceptional players alone are not always enough when it comes to fantasy sports. Considering our goals in basketball, even in daily competitions where intensive management and volume manipulation are possible, we still require heightened volume and consistency.

Of course, Ball certainly is not alone in his challenges with missed games. Presented further are others to avoid, based on their ADP implying “this will be the year for full participation!”

• Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP 28.4): Ranging from physical setbacks to personal difficulties, Morant has been present for 59 games across the previous two seasons. He is yet to exceed 68 games in any single season. However, there is more. Differing from Ball, Morant’s scoring, rebounding, and assisting figures were diminished in the previous season compared to the 2022-23 season. Although it is probable that his numbers could elevate given the departure of Desmond Bane, the third-round ADP stays overly optimistic given the totality of factors. Morant shows talent and delivers nightly highlights, though not frequently enough.

• Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP 35.3): Williamson participated in just 30 more games than the average spectator during the last season. He demonstrates excellence in scoring output for each minute played, but, of course, we need more minutes as compared to what Nathan Knight and Olivier-Maxence Prosper offer. Williamson was present for 70 games two seasons prior, but his scoring output was significantly reduced. This is not a 30-point-per-game choice. Williamson has never been impactful for rebounds or blocked shots, and he negatively impacts fantasy teams due to his free throw percentage. Dismiss him in the initial five rounds, at minimum, and consider LA Clippers SF Kawhi Leonard similarly. It’s not just concerning the missed games. Leonard simply doesn’t offer the fantasy statistics as many may anticipate.

• Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP 56.6): Anticipate this ADP increasing during October because it regularly does. The 76ers are projected to declare their MVP-caliber player as healthy, only for something to arise. Embiid was present for 19 games the previous season, mostly due to a left knee injury that seemed persistent, and his performance was lacking while playing. Even if he is available by opening day, the team should proceed carefully throughout the season. I can affirm that securing Embiid in the sixth round signifies a significant accomplishment, even if he plays in merely 50 games. Even so, allocate this to someone else. Cs Walker Kessler and Dereck Lively II are picked later. Select them.

• We are uncertain when we will see Dallas Mavericks PG Kyrie Irving, but it is unlikely to be in the near future. It is probable that you may keep Irving on the injured list, though avoid investing with the initial 100 picks in redraft formats. Irving suffered a tear to his left ACL in March, and even with a return before the All-Star break in February, he probably won’t participate close to every game for a team aspiring to the playoffs. Irving last participated in more than 60 games during the 2018-19 season.

• Pelicans PG Dejounte Murray sustained a tear to his right Achilles on New Year’s Eve, with initial reports proposing a likely delayed debut to January. Fantasy managers should anticipate modifications to the typical stats when he returns. Murray’s scoring dropped to 17.5 points per game during his initial season with the Pelicans, in spite of our appreciation for the assists and steals. Proceed with caution when considering expectations. While there is a place for keeping an injured player, a good number of fantasy managers will likely become impatient by Christmas, resulting in a wasted draft pick.

  There is consolation that Boston Celtics PF Jayson Tatum, Portland Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard, and Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton, each suffered an Achilles tear during the NBA playoffs, and we have the ability to dismiss them on draft day with the knowledge that they will probably miss the entire season. There is no justification for keeping them. Don’t be misled by anyone projected to miss the first few months. Typically, their absence is longer.

• The inaugural season with the 76ers was less than ideal for veteran PF Paul George. As he is already not a very durable player, we may emphasize his absence for half the season, alongside his struggles with adjustment in his new offensive system. Don’t attribute blame to Embiid, either. They played minimally together. Overall, George was passive, averaging only 13.9 field goal attempts and scoring 16.2 points per game. Conditions are not likely to improve with relative health within the 76ers. George is recovering from summer knee surgery, and this will extend his launch date and move his ADP out of the top 100. We are comfortable investing in Ball, Morant, Williamson, Embiid, George, and others if their ADP dips. Drafts depend on value. George may possess value.

• The advantage with New York Knicks SF Mikal Bridges lies in his consistent availability. He is, quite literally, present for every single game, and that carries weight in fantasy settings. The challenge is that the fantasy numbers do not stand out. Bridges has infrequently contributed significantly in rebounds and assists, and though he is a strong defender, it isn’t reflected in steals and blocked shots. Volume is beneficial, specifically for points formats, though a Round 5 ADP is still too much. His Villanova/Knicks teammate Josh Hart rebounds and passes significantly more, making him the better value.

• The new Atlanta Hawks PF Kristaps Porzingis lacks durability and could be placed in the category of injured players, although he isn’t injured as of this moment, to our understanding. Porzingis probably isn’t reaching 20 points per game or 7 rebounds per game on the Hawks, given the high-usage point guard in Trae Young and C Onyeka Okongwu leading in rebounds. Porzingis is no longer carrying a top-50 ADP, while likely discouraging investors several rounds later, as well.

• Afford new Clippers PF John Collins credit for averaging 19.2 PPG and 8.2 RPG for the Jazz last season (even if only 40 games), though it is difficult to see that production with his new team. The Clippers are also equipped with James Harden who demands possessions, scorers in Bradley Beal and Kawhi Leonard, and C Ivica Zubac led the NBA in rebounds last season. Collins might average numbers similar to his final season with the Hawks (13.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG), reasonable if selected beyond the first 10 rounds.

• The new Trail Blazers PG Jrue Holiday has been met with a successful career, earning defensive honors and achieving NBA titles. Though he is no longer a fantasy option, even with an ADP after the 10th round. PG Scoot Henderson (No. 3 pick in 2023) may never become a star, though the Blazers should assess the potential. When Portland makes the choice to trade Holiday to a contender, the numbers won’t resemble those from his seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks. We emphasized this sentiment a year earlier when describing Mavericks SG Klay Thompson, and Thompson offered his weakest season since his rookie campaign.

• Mavericks SF/PF Cooper Flagg is going to matter in fantasy right away, although he is a rookie exception. Most fail to present fantasy relevant stats in their first season. The previous season, San Antonio Spurs PG Stephon Castle secured the Rookie of the Year award, and most of his figures came after the All-Star break, not ending up among the top 100 on the Player Rater. Flagg will. He demonstrates uniqueness. Avoid expecting Spurs PG/SG Dylan Harper, 76ers SG VJ Edgecombe, or other top draft picks to provide relevant fantasy stats in Year 1. There is a likelihood that Flagg may be overdrafted in most leagues, given the unexpected possibility of matching initial Duke stats (19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG), and he should be good enough.