Fantasy Football: Chase Brown Revival & Theo Johnson Surge

Each week during the NFL calendar, I examine the passing-game statistics and endeavor to identify meaningful patterns among wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. Let’s delve into the data and observe what insights emerge.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals

The influence of the Cooper Kupp acquisition on Matthew Stafford and Tutu Atwell is undeniable. However, let’s also acknowledge its positive effect on Brown’s performance this year.

Brown encountered difficulties in the initial weeks, ranking as RB21, RB34, RB49, RB37, and RB28. The last three games coincided with Carson Wentz as quarterback, all resulting in Cincinnati defeats. With Kupp’s arrival, the Bengals have scored 117 points in the last three games. The offense has become engaging once more.

Brown has regained his form from 2024, securing RB20, RB17, RB5, and RB8 rankings in recent starts. Notably, he garnered 14 targets and eight receptions in the Chicago game, following a productive 3-32-1 receiving performance the week before. Kupp frequently launches deep throws but readily involves Brown, both intentionally and when plays are disrupted. Furthermore, with Alexander Mattison managing an ankle sprain, Brown’s role as a pass-catching back appears secure.

Perhaps Joe Burrow will return later in the season, or perhaps not. This may hinge on the Bengals’ ability to remain competitive in the playoff race. However, even with Kupp starting for the remainder of the year, I am willing to endorse the key components of this offense, including Brown.

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts

We have extensively discussed Pierce on this platform recently, as he has begun to excel. He has amassed 17-366-1 in the past four games, though Yahoo managers have been slow to recognize his potential. He remains rostered in just 46% of Yahoo leagues, and while some of this may be due to the Colts’ bye week, the percentage seems low.

Let’s analyze Indy’s previous four games to understand the distribution of usage.

Pierce has run 141 routes during this period, mirroring Michael Pittman Jr. Rookie TE Tyler Warren has 132 routes. Pierce has received 34 targets (Pittman 31, Warren 25) in that span, reflecting the offense’s design. First-read targets are allocated as follows: 31.8% for Pierce, 26.2% for Pittman, and 20.6% for Warren.

Of course, Pierce is adept at long gains, but such plays do not always materialize. His aDOT is 20.9 for this month-long sample, exceeding Pittman (8.9) and far surpassing Warren (5.0). However, considering Pierce’s track record since 2024, he has earned credibility. And for the most part, Daniel Jones has provided correct answers this year, apart from the debacle in Pittsburgh.

I regret that Indy’s schedule is unfavorable after the bye: Chiefs, Texans, Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars. Three of the initial four matchups are challenging. Yet, having witnessed Pierce achieve double-digit fantasy points three times in October, I am assigning him at least WR3 status moving forward.

Theo Johnson, TE, Giants

I had prepared a segment promoting Darius Slayton, but Slayton’s hamstring injury will prevent him from playing this week. Unfortunate. Nevertheless, I remain interested in identifying who will emerge with Jameis Winston in his Week 11 start, and I believe that Theo Johnson may be the one.

Recall that David Njoku experienced a surge in performance last year when Winston assumed the starting role in Cleveland. In their six games together, Njoku recorded a 36-274-4 stat line, sufficient to rank as TE6 in points per game. For weekly data: TE8, TE21, TE7, TE28, TE2, TE2. These are impressive numbers.

Johnson is coming off a season-high for catches and targets, and he’s spiked five times in seven weeks. I already liked him with Jaxson Dart, but I also think the temporary Winston appointment will be good for him.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills

It’s disheartening to witness Kincaid sidelined again; he’s listed as week-to-week due to a hamstring injury. I intend to retain him where feasible, as he’s demonstrating third-year growth that’s being overlooked.

The Buffalo offense requires a dominant pass catcher, and Kincaid has occasionally appeared to be that player this year. He has caught 29 of 36 targets, increased his YPC to 15.4 (exceptional for a wide receiver; extraordinary for a tight end), and scored four touchdowns. Nearly every metric related to Kincaid is noteworthy.

However, one statistic stands out – when Kincaid is targeted this year, Josh Allen has a 155.6 passer rating. For context, the maximum rating is 158.3. Unsurprisingly, this is the highest among NFL tight ends (only Kayshon Boutte surpasses it among wide receivers).

With Buffalo experiencing a slight dip in performance recently, it’s time to rely on their top players. Kincaid hasn’t received more than six targets in any game this year, but he has maximized his opportunities. Should he recover quickly, there are favorable matchups ahead, including games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in Weeks 13 and 14. Consider holding onto Kincaid, or acquiring him if someone is compelled to make a Week 11 roster reduction.

Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 10

Wide Receiver

Running back

Tight end