The seventh week is approaching, and analysts are suggesting that we should target two specific games for potential fantasy football opportunities: the contest between Washington and Dallas, and the matchup between Tampa Bay and Detroit. These games have substantial projected point totals, with 53.5 and 52.5 points, respectively.
I’ve compiled a list of my preferred sleeper picks from each of these games. If you’re struggling to decide which players to include in your lineup, prioritizing players from these games might be a smart strategy, as they present increased potential for scoring.
On the other hand, statistical models don’t seem to favor the Giants, who have the lowest projected score this week at just 17.0 points. By comparison, the Tennessee Titans have the second-lowest projected total at 17.5, even though the Titans offense has struggled and they’ve recently appointed a new interim head coach.
Regarding the Giants, they’re playing the Broncos on the road. I think that Cam Skattebo is a viable option because he’s getting a lot of touches, but aside from him, I wouldn’t feel confident playing anyone else from the Giants, including Jaxson Dart. Although Dart has been good for fantasy due to his rushing scores, he’s thrown for under 200 yards in two of his three starts.
With the Broncos defense improving, I anticipate Denver will curb Dart’s recent success.
Here are my Week 7 sleeper picks, based on matchup analysis (and some other considerations).
QUARTERBACKS
Caleb Williams vs. NO
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The Saints are allowing the fourth-highest average of fantasy points to quarterbacks.
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Williams hasn’t been flawless, but he’s improving. In his first two weeks, he averaged 208.5 passing yards and had four total touchdowns with one interception. In his last three games, Williams has increased his passing numbers, averaging 254.0 yards per game and scoring seven total touchdowns with one interception.
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His EPA per dropback has risen from -0.06 in his first two games to 0.18.
Spencer Rattler vs. CHI
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The Bears have conceded two or more touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in four of their five games and give up the second-most total touchdowns per game to the quarterback position.
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Chicago is also fourth-worst in how often they pressure opposing QBs while the 73.6% completion rate allowed is the second-worst in the NFL.
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Rattler has been performing admirably! Since Week 2, he has accumulated over 1,000 yards and has six TDs against one INT while completing 71.3% of his passes.
FADE: Sam Darnold vs. HOU
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It’s difficult to rely on Darnold even though he’s been playing well. The Texans are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
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While matchups are important and the Texans have faced Cooper Rush and Cam Ward, only Baker Mayfield has managed to score more than 15 fantasy points against them. His 19.9 fantasy points are the highest against them, meaning Houston has yet to allow any QB to score 20+ points against it. That’s impressive!
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The 58.8% completion rate allowed is third-best while the three touchdowns allowed (yes, just three!) are the fewest in the league. DeMeco Ryans has his players well-prepared.
RUNNING BACKS
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. TEN
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We have to stop expecting TreVeyon Henderson to break out. He hasn’t performed well enough to justify the requests for more playing time. According to Sports Info Solutions, Henderson is one of only two qualifying running backs who haven’t recorded a single broken tackle (minimum of 25 carries).
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That being said, I see the counterargument that Rhamondre hasn’t played well enough to justify a 70% snap share. Both arguments can be valid, but we have to analyze the current situation. For some reason, Stevenson continues to receive a significant snap share.
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This week, he’s up against a Titans defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Jordan Mason vs. PHI
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Philly has a strong pass-rushing defensive line, but they’re not as effective at stopping the run. The Eagles rank in the bottom 10 in yards after contact allowed and explosive run rate allowed, and they’re last in run stuff rate. Consequently, five of the six starting running backs they’ve faced have scored at least 15 PPR points against them.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. DAL
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Bill underperformed against the Bears last week, but he has another favorable matchup this week against the Cowboys.
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The ‘Boys have allowed 30+ PPR points in two of their last three games (Rico Dowdle: 33.9 FP, Josh Jacobs: 31.7 FP).
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I’d rather advise starting him and seeing him “disappoint” with 9-10 points than leaving him on the bench and watching him score 20+ points, which is certainly possible in this matchup.
J.K. Dobbins vs. NYG
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The Giants are allowing 5.49 yards per carry to running backs, which ranks as the third-worst.
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Last week was rough, but if we ignore the strange London game, Dobbins was averaging 5.2 ypc at the beginning of the season.
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The Broncos have relied on Dobbins in goal-to-go situations. His eight carries from inside the 10-yard line are tied for the 13th most. He’s tied with James Cook, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, and Ashton Jeanty, among others.
SMASH SPOT: Quinshon Judkins vs MIA
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Here’s a crazy stat: The Dolphins have allowed an opposing running back to score 20+ PPR points in four of their last five games. Breece Hall is the only starter in that span who didn’t reach 20 points; he scored 16.1 fantasy points.
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Miami is last in yards before contact and explosive run rate allowed to the position. As a result, they have allowed the most rushing yards and the most scrimmage yards to running backs.
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Expect Judkins to bounce back after last week’s letdown.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Troy Franklin vs. NYG
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The Giants have allowed the sixth-most receptions and the third-most yards to receivers lined up in the slot. Overall, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to inside pass catchers.
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Franklin has played 60% of his snaps inside, and his only touchdown of the season occurred when he was lined up in the slot.
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I also like that the G-Men have allowed the second-most receptions and yards on deep passes this year. If Franklin can make a big play down the field, he might score his second touchdown of the season.
DEEP SLEEPER: Chris Moore vs DAL
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This is a Sleeper King special, but if Terry McLaurin is unavailable, and you’re desperate in redraft, or looking for some high variance in DFS, consider Chris Moore.
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He’s facing Dallas, which struggles to defend against wide receivers. It’s allowing the most fantasy points per game to outside receivers, and Moore played 65% of his snaps out wide last week. He ran the second-most routes among all Washington receivers; he ran more routes than Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane combined.
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The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points per game on deep passes this year. This seems to match Jayden Daniels’ ability to throw the long ball.
Hollywood Brown vs. LV
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Following his huge performance last week, it might feel like we’re just chasing points with Hollywood, but I want to invest in this Kansas City passing game. Mahomes is getting hot, and he typically dominates the Raiders.
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Vegas is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers.
TIGHT ENDS
Mason Taylor vs. CAR
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Starting tight ends have scored at least 11.9 ppr points against the Panthers in four of their last five games. Overall, they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.
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Taylor had a poor performance last week (one reception, two yards), but the entire Jets team struggled.
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Returning home this week, Taylor has become a reliable target for Justin Fields. Plus, with Garrett Wilson potentially limited, Taylor should see an even larger target share.
