Significant shifts in regulations typically result in wider performance disparities within Formula 1. Both the competing teams and the FIA anticipate a greater divergence in car performance compared to the previous year, despite the governing body implementing various provisions to avert a recurrence of the 2014 season.
When the hybrid era commenced, Mercedes introduced an exceptionally powerful engine, securing a period of sustained advantage for many seasons. The upcoming 2026 overhaul presents the potential for a similar situation, but the FIA has taken lessons from previous experiences and incorporated safeguards into the rulebook.
Concerning the power units, the ADUO system stands out as a crucial element. This mechanism stipulates that following every six-race interval (from races 1–6, 7–12, and 13–18), the FIA will assess the horsepower generated by the internal combustion engines. Manufacturers whose ICE performance lags between 2% and 4% behind the leading unit will be granted a single supplementary upgrade, whereas those falling short by over 4% will receive authorization for two extra upgrades.
A significant distinction for this upcoming period is that the modifications extend beyond just the power unit regulations; the entire technical framework is being reset, encompassing fresh engine rules, a revised set of chassis regulations featuring active aerodynamic systems, and a transition to entirely sustainable fuel sources.
This brings forth the inquiry into what will emerge as the primary factor distinguishing performance in 2026.
“My anticipation is that the engine, specifically the ICE, will be the dominant element at the outset. With new entrants and revamped ICE rules, we foresee some initial disparities,” stated Nikolas Tombazis, the FIA’s single-seater director, to a group of journalists, including Autosport.
Nikolas Tombazis, Head of Single Seater Technical Matters, FIA
Photo by: Mark Sutton
“However, we are confident that mechanisms have been established to allow teams to progressively close the performance gap. Therefore, we view any performance divergence as a provisional state,” he further elaborated.
“Furthermore, we have entirely new aerodynamic rules. It’s only natural that some design approaches will prove superior to others. I anticipate an initial period of convergence within approximately six months to a year,” he added.
This trend was previously observed with the 2022 regulations, which initially showcased around three distinct sidepod designs: the downwash concept by Red Bull, Ferrari’s inwash approach, and Mercedes’ zeropod. Eventually, the majority of teams gravitated towards Red Bull’s downwash design, though frequently adapting it with their unique modifications.
Will 2026 Feature Wider Performance Spreads?
Regarding the disparities among teams, the FIA’s forecast is dual: while the initial performance gaps are expected to be larger than in the prior year, the long-term outlook, assuming the regulations function as designed, anticipates an even tighter competition than the preceding cycle.
“For the 2026 season, I do not foresee the grid being as tightly contested as it was last year. However, I do anticipate that once the field converges, it will be more competitive than in 2025,” Tombazis commented.
Concerning the performance variations among teams for 2026, Pirelli reported that preliminary downforce simulations provided by the teams showed substantial discrepancies. Nevertheless, in December, Pirelli acquired a fresh set of simulation data, encompassing estimated loads for the close of the 2026 season. The Italian tire manufacturer stated that these later projections exhibited considerably less variation than previously, leading to the question of whether this boosts Tombazis’s assurance.
2026 FIA F1 car render
Photo by: FIA
“To a certain extent, yes, but absolute certainty is elusive as we lack comprehensive data from the teams, meaning we are unaware of their current downforce levels or engine output,” he clarified. “Initially, some fluctuations are probable, but we are quite confident that the eventual convergence in performance will result in a more consolidated, or compact, grid.”
Lastly, Tombazis emphasized a critical aspect: the level of excitement for spectators isn’t exclusively dictated by the performance difference separating the quickest and slowest teams.
“In my view, the grid’s competitiveness isn’t solely defined by the chasm between the front and rear of the field,” he asserted. “Should a couple of teams face initial difficulties, I don’t believe that single-handedly dictates the thrill of a championship.”
“Typically, excitement is generated by the proximity of competitors within the top half, specifically those vying for points and victories. In that segment, I expect to see a fairly tight contest,” he concluded.
