The journey to the Kentucky Derby proceeds this Saturday at Churchill Downs with the $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, a Grade 2 competition granting 10 qualifying points to the victor. The group of seven encouraging 2-year-old colts will assemble as a component of the Stars of Tomorrow II program. Traditionally, this contest has been a substantial steppingstone on the Derby route, generating three Kentucky Derby champions from 1976, though only Super Saver has accomplished the uncommon double in that duration.
This year’s group showcases an engaging combination of homebreds, costly yearling acquisitions, and all facets in between, establishing a competitive betting race brimming with value. Winchell Thoroughbreds’ homebred Spice Runner attracted the rail for conditioner Steve Asmussen with Joel Rosario piloting him for the initial occasion. Subsequent to securing the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes two starts prior on the Churchill main track in September and acquiring an 80 Equibase Speed Figure, the Gun Runner colt possesses 11 Kentucky Derby points and a graded stakes conquest beneath his belt. Cherokee Nation, a $1.15 million yearling acquisition, is pursuing his initial excursion to the winner’s enclosure. He journeys in from the West Coast for conditioner Bob Baffert with red-hot Flavien Prat arranged to pilot him for the initial occasion. Dr. Kapur propelled unequivocally to a 2 ¾-length maiden conquest recently in his subsequent career commencement and will be attempting a dirt route for the initial occasion for conditioner Saffie Joseph Jr. Soldier N Diplomat enters off a nine-length romp traversing one mile on the dirt at Churchill for Asmussen. Very Connected garnered his initial triumph in his third career commencement in September on a sloppy track at Churchill. He possesses three points on the Derby route adhering to a third-place conclusion in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes recently for conditioner Kenny McPeek. Further Ado fractured his maiden by an extraordinary 20 lengths in his third commencement in October at Keeneland. One of the most intensely anticipated runners in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he makes his stakes debut for conditioner Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. retaining the mount. Universe, another McPeek trainee, attracted the exterior post and enters the contest off consecutive top-three conclusions in graded stakes.
Assessment and Key Rivals:
Even though Cherokee Nation is still pursuing his initial career triumph, this Not This Time colt procured for $1.15 million at the 2024 Keeneland September yearling transaction seems to be incredibly gifted. Cherokee Nation initiated his debut in early September in a 5 ½-furlong dirt sprint at Del Mar and concluded a distant fourth, surpassed by 11 lengths while garnering an uninspiring 68 Equibase Speed Figure. In his subsequent commencement at Santa Anita Park in mid-October, the Baffert trainee enhanced considerably when attempting a two-turn route for the initial occasion. Traversing a mile on the dirt, Cherokee Nation was swiftly hurried to the lead and battled along the backstretch, establishing strong quarter-mile fractions of :22.83 and :46.94. On the concluding turn, 3-5 favorite Mr. A. P. assumed command but Cherokee Nation was not proceeding anywhere. The pair battled down the stretch and Cherokee Nation retaliated on the inside, narrowly missing by a nose while concluding 12 ¾ lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. This was ultra-impressive to retaliate as a 2-year-old subsequent to establishing the tempo, specifically considering winner Mr. A. P. subsequently operated second by a length to undefeated Ted Noffey in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. Cherokee Nation garnered a career-best 106 speed figure for that endeavor at Santa Anita and journeys to Kentucky with a mission to not only fracture his maiden but also score some points on the Route to the Kentucky Derby. An enormous positive for this horse is the addition of Prat, who triumphed at an extraordinary 50% recently on 28 mounts. Historically, Baffert and Prat are nearly unstoppable collectively, triumphing at 40% (19-for-48) and 71% in-the-money in graded stakes races over the previous three years. Cherokee Nation has been operating effectively at Santa Anita since the runner-up conclusion and ranks second by late tempo with a 112.0 behind Further Ado’s massive 120.5. Even though Cherokee Nation would normally be intensely favored in these conditions, the presence of Further Ado adds significant value.
The return of Further Ado subsequent to his 20-length runaway victory has rightfully developed into the focal point of this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The Gun Runner colt was a $550,000 acquisition by Spendthrift Farm at the OBS Spring 2-year-olds in training transaction. He debuted at Saratoga in July, concluding fifth by 3 ½ lengths behind fellow Kentucky Jockey Club entrant Soldier N Diplomat, then seized a slight step backward in his subsequent commencement, dropping from a 78 Equibase Speed Figure to a 69 when third in another dirt sprint in August at Saratoga. Everything altered recently at Keeneland. Stretching out to two turns for the initial occasion, Further Ado delivered a jaw-dropping performance while garnering a career- and field-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. The figures all indicate Further Ado. Cox triumphs at a sharp 30% clip with recently maiden champions over the past two years, and Further Ado enters with both the highest late tempo rating and the highest last-out speed figure in the field. Over the past year, horses with that combination in graded stakes dirt routes have triumphed at 29% with 61% in-the-money conclusions from 190 starts. Further Ado has persisted to train forwardly since that breakout endeavor, including most recently a strong five-furlong breeze in :59.60 at Churchill on Nov. 15. He could incredibly well run away with this contest, though it is a tall task for a 2-year-old to replicate such an extraordinary performance.
Soldier N Diplomat enters the Kentucky Jockey Club off a commanding performance in late October, drawing off by nine lengths in an allowance-optional claiming contest at Churchill while garnering a career-best 91 speed figure traversing a mile on the dirt. The Asmussen-conditioned colt will again be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for that triumph. Soldier N Diplomat made an immediate impression in his career debut at Saratoga, defeating Further Ado in a maiden special weight contest with an 85 Equibase Speed Figure prior to a big jump in class in the Grade 1 Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes, where he concluded a distant fourth behind Ted Noffey. His most recent victory marked his initial attempt at a dirt route in a one-turn mile, leaving the two-turn question still to be answered. Even so, Soldier N Diplomat has demonstrated tremendous talent in all three of his starts. With a proven affinity for the Churchill surface and a strong record of discovering the winner’s enclosure, Soldier N Diplomat possesses every opportunity to deliver another big endeavor on Saturday.
The remainder of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races): Spice Runner (88), Dr. Kapur (88), Very Connected (88), and Universe (92).
Triumph Rivals in Preference Order:
Cherokee Nation
Further Ado
Soldier N Diplomat
