The prestigious $1 million Pennsylvania Derby has attracted a group of 10, with a notable five having encountered the challenges of competing against Sovereignty and/or Journalism in the Triple Crown series or subsequent graded stakes engagements.
The absence of what many consider the nation’s top two 3-year-olds adds a layer of betting intrigue to this year’s Pennsylvania Derby, presenting potential value despite a still highly competitive field. So Sandy enters the race on the heels of a peak performance, achieving a 101 Equibase Speed Figure in a close defeat to Chancer McPatrick during the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. Altobelli is listed with long odds of 50-1, undertaking a significant rise in competition following a last-place result in his prior two appearances at the optional claiming and starter-optional claiming tiers. Magnitude was temporarily sidelined due to an injury sustained after a commanding 9 ¾ length victory in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes in February. He has since returned from surgery to repair a bone chip, showcasing similar dominance with a 9 ¼ length win in the Iowa Derby. Most recently, he finished third behind Sovereignty in the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes and aims to replicate his career-high 111 speed figure from the Iowa Derby in July. David of Athens is the least experienced contender, with only three career starts, each accompanied by increasing Equibase Speed Figures. He secured a win in an allowance race at Ellis Park in his most recent outing, prevailing by 7 ¼ lengths. Happily Delusional enters the race with one victory from 11 career starts and seeks to provide an upset win for local connections Louis Linder Jr. and Paco Lopez. Goal Oriented has achieved three consecutive triple-digit Equibase Speed Figures, having finished behind Gosger in both the Preakness Stakes and NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes. He aims to give trainer Bob Baffert his fifth Pennsylvania Derby victory, extending his record. Baffert has a strong history at Parx/Philadelphia Park, with five wins from just 13 starts. Big Truzz is coming off a significant performance, winning the Ellis Park Derby by seven lengths and achieving a career-best 105 speed figure. Baeza is the morning-line favorite at 2-1, following three consistent performances behind dual classic winner Sovereignty. He posted a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure – tied with Magnitude for the highest in the field – for his runner-up finish in the Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun at Saratoga on July 26. Gosger holds a favorable position at post nine, coming off two strong showings where he finished second to Journalism by a narrow margin of a half-length, earning a 108 Equibase Speed Figure in both the Preakness and Haskell. Mo Plex completes the lineup, also exiting the Jim Dandy Stakes.
Assessment and Primary Competitors:
Gosger, a colt by Nyquist, conditioned by Brendan Walsh, enters the Pennsylvania Derby demonstrating peak condition, evident from a swift five-furlong workout completed in :59.60, marking the fastest among 40 observed workouts at that distance on September 12 at Churchill Downs. The Harvey A. Clark Racing Stables homebred has showcased remarkable consistency, highlighted by two wins and three runner-up finishes across five career races. Following a maiden victory over a mile on the dirt track at Gulfstream Park in February, Gosger quickly established his presence at the graded-stakes level, securing a win in the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April. Subsequently, in the Preakness a month later, Gosger drew considerable attention at odds of 15.50-1, narrowly missing the win by a half-length to Journalism. More recently, Gosger reaffirmed his capabilities by mirroring his Preakness performance in the Haskell Stakes, once again finishing second to Journalism by a half-length and registering a second consecutive 108 speed figure. Walsh has achieved noteworthy success at Parx in the past, with three wins from 12 career starts and eight top-three placements. Luis Saez, who has guided Gosger in his two most recent races, remains in the saddle for Saturday’s event. Over the past year, Saez and Walsh have demonstrated a 27% win rate in all races together, achieving 10 wins from 37 starts. With his ongoing advancement, strong recent form, and the absence of Journalism and Sovereignty, Gosger appears well-positioned for a Grade 1 victory.
Baeza has emerged as a consistent performer among a particularly talented group of 3-year-olds. Following a maiden victory in his third career start at Santa Anita by a margin of 4 ¾ lengths, marked by a sharp 104 Equibase Speed Figure, Baeza has consistently faced top-tier competition. He secured a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, just three-quarters of a length behind Journalism, before achieving third-place results in both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, trailing the formidable duo of Sovereignty and Journalism. Baeza recently delivered what may be considered his best performance in the Jim Dandy, finishing just a length behind Sovereignty while posting a career-high 111 speed figure. Sovereignty subsequently dominated the Travers by a significant 10-length margin. Data indicates that over the past year, horses participating in graded stakes races on the dirt, possessing the highest last-race Equibase Speed Figure in the field, have won at a 30% rate across 308 starts. Notably, there was a jockey change from Flavien Prat to Hector Berrios between the Belmont and the Jim Dandy, and Berrios will resume riding on Saturday. Regardless of Prat’s proven skill, Berrios appears to bring out the best in Baeza. As a half-brother (sharing the same dam, but with a different sire) to both the 2023 Kentucky Derby victor Mage and the 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, Baeza possesses the pedigree, class, and speed figures to justify his position as the morning line favorite at 2-1.
Mo Plex introduces potential value on the outside, trained by Jeremiah Englehart, with Joe Ramos resuming the jockey duties. As a bay colt sired by Complexity, Mo Plex has displayed remarkable consistency, recording five wins, a runner-up finish, and two third-place finishes across nine career races, with his only unplaced result occurring in his most recent start, finishing fourth behind Sovereignty and Baeza in the Jim Dandy. Originally a sprinter, Mo Plex quickly gained prominence with a 10-length victory in his career debut at Belmont at the Big A, subsequently sweeping the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes and Funny Cide Stakes at Saratoga during his two-year-old campaign. He followed this with three consecutive top-three finishes at the stakes level before securing a win in the Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct in his second race as a 3-year-old, achieving a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure. Mo Plex further solidified his record by adding the Grade 3 Ohio Derby to his accomplishments, defeating Chunk of Gold, who subsequently won the West Virginia Derby by 4 ¼ lengths in his next race. Exhibiting sharp training leading up to this event, Mo Plex completed a rapid four-furlong workout in :48.00 flat, the fastest among 99 observed workouts at that distance at Saratoga on September 13. With a proven record at the graded stakes level and entering the race in strong current form, Mo Plex is a credible contender for a top placing at a favorable price on Saturday.
The remaining contenders (with highest Equibase Speed Figure in comparable races): So Sandy (101), Altobelli (96), Magnitude (111), David of Athens (103), Happily Delusional (87), Goal Oriented (109), and Big Truzz (105).
Projected Order of Finish:
Gosger
Baeza
Mo Plex
