Every so often, team officials in professional baseball will concede that a transaction did not pan out as expected. Certain player acquisitions simply fail to achieve the desired results, and executives may acknowledge this reality. However, it is exceedingly rare to witness a team executive publicly express regret over a trade less than one week after its completion.
Jed Hoyer, the president of baseball operations for the Chicago Cubs, found himself in uncharted territory on Tuesday, a mere five days following the acquisition of starting pitcher Michael Soroka from the Washington Nationals prior to the trade deadline. In exchange, the Nationals received outfield prospect Christian Franklin and right-handed pitching prospect Ronny Cruz, considered the Cubs’ 13th and 14th-ranked prospects, respectively, according to MLB Pipeline.
Soroka’s debut with the Cubs occurred on Monday, but his outing was cut short after just two innings due to what was described as discomfort in his right shoulder. The subsequent day, he was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a shoulder strain.
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Hoyer addressed the media in the aftermath of the situation and admitted that the trade already appeared considerably less appealing than it had previously:
“We devoted a significant amount of time to evaluating the situation. We were aware that his velocity was declining. We thoroughly discussed this issue. Considering the existing market conditions, the asking price, and various other factors, we believed it was a worthwhile risk to take. However, following his performance last night, it currently does not appear to be a favorable outcome.”
“Our role involves assessing and taking calculated risks on these types of decisions. This does not necessarily mean that he will be unable to contribute to the team for the remainder of the season. We are still awaiting further medical evaluations.”
As Hoyer highlighted, a notable cause for concern was Soroka’s pitching velocity. After consistently registering around 94 mph during the initial three months of the season, his average velocity on four-seam fastballs experienced a significant decline in recent weeks, dropping from 93.7 mph on July 10 to 91.7 mph on July 18 and further to 90.9 mph on July 23. His average velocity was 90.8 mph before being removed from the game on Monday.
A substantial decrease in velocity often serves as a warning sign of an underlying medical condition, not to mention the general reduction in effectiveness. Soroka also has a noteworthy history of injuries, having missed the entirety of the 2021 and 2022 seasons due to two Achilles tendon tears and a significant portion of 2023 due to inflammation in his right elbow.
Despite these concerns, the Cubs proceeded with the trade and relinquished two prospects in the process. Hoyer openly explained the team’s rationale for proceeding with the trade while also acknowledging the sometimes impersonal nature of MLB roster decisions:
“Earlier in the season, his velocity was significantly higher. It had been decreasing, and we were attempting to determine the underlying cause. He underwent an MRI examination prior to the trade. The inherent risk was known, and we concluded that, considering the asking price and the fact that we considered him to be superior in terms of talent and developmental potential compared to the other pitchers we were considering, it was an appropriate risk to take.
“We are essentially making educated guesses on human beings, and occasionally they do not pan out as expected. We conducted extensive due diligence and research, and if the outcome is unfavorable, the responsibility rests with me. It is part of the job.”
Regarding the results of Soroka’s pre-trade MRI, Hoyer acknowledged that “pristine MRIs are rare” for veteran MLB pitchers, whose ligaments have endured years of stress and are susceptible to unexpected failure.
Chicago was likely more attracted to Soroka’s underlying performance metrics than his superficial statistics, as his 4.87 ERA in D.C. hardly suggested a significant upgrade at the deadline. Baseball Savant had his xERA (which utilizes strikeout, walk, and batted ball data to estimate a player’s expected ERA) at 3.32 at the time of the trade, and it was reasonable to anticipate improved performance with the Cubs’ above-average defense compared to the Nationals’ below-average defense.
Soroka’s path forward now hinges on the findings of his latest round of medical imaging. Even if the results are positive, a transition to the bullpen may be in his future, considering his performance on the mound and the persistent risk of injury.
