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Pamela Maldonado
The passage of each season brings its share of surprises. A subpar performance is easily dismissed as an anomaly, fostering optimism for a subsequent improvement.
That is the situation Illinois currently finds itself in. A number of individuals placing bets appear to view the overwhelming defeat to Indiana as an isolated incident. This sentiment is reflected in the betting market, as the point spread for the upcoming game against Ohio State has narrowed from an initial 16 points to 14.5. It is possible that this represents a pivotal moment, or perhaps that game provided a glimpse into the true nature of the Fighting Illini team: a team that is competent and competitive, yet still not quite on par with the sport’s upper echelon.
Regardless, the truth will soon be revealed when they compete against the nation’s top-ranked team.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, Noon ET, FOX
Line: Ohio State -14.5
Money line: Ohio State (-750), Illinois (+475)
Over/Under: 49.5 (O -120, U Even)
Illinois is structured for victories, not breakthroughs
My initial assessment of the Illini from the preseason continues to hold true. I did not embrace the widespread excitement surrounding them back in August. I adopted a skeptical stance towards the heightened perception of their capabilities, and the season has unfolded in precisely that manner through the first six weeks of competition.
Illinois is a reliable and capable football team. This is an undeniable fact. They possess the discipline, talent, and depth necessary to triumph over a substantial portion (80%) of their opponents. They effectively handle their responsibilities against teams they are expected to defeat, maintain control of the ball, and benefit from strong coaching. However, when confronted with more formidable competition and a reduced margin for error, their limitations become evident.
It mirrors the recurring narrative observed with Penn State over the years. They consistently defeat the middle-tier and bottom-tier teams in the conference with relative ease, but encounter difficulties when facing teams with comparable or superior talent. Illinois is exhibiting indications of fitting into a similar category.
The Illini have yet to discover a dependable game-changer in their rushing attack, have struggled to exert sufficient pressure against proficient offensive lines, and their most statistically impressive performances have largely occurred against teams with minimal chances of success.
Indeed, Illinois’ defensive unit has only managed to record five sacks in their previous three games. The majority of their pressure production occurred in Week 1 against an FCS opponent (Western Illinois) and during a 38-0 victory over Western Michigan in Week 3.
Furthermore, when they faced a defense as talented as Indiana’s, the offense faltered significantly, achieving only one third-down conversion and accumulating a mere 161 total yards, 59 of which were gained on a single play.
They remain a team capable of winning games, but that is where the conversation about limitations begins. Illinois resembles a heavyweight boxer who consistently defeats opponents in training but falters when the championship bout arrives.
Until Illinois demonstrates the ability to compete with the top contenders, they will remain a program that is commendable but not yet exceptional.
And this weekend’s game against Ohio State serves as a critical benchmark.
Betting consideration: Ohio State -14.5
If the outcome hinges on performance within the red zone, the disparity is significant.
Illinois has conceded 13 touchdowns in 18 red zone incursions this season. In contrast, Ohio State’s defense has not allowed a single red zone touchdown throughout the entire season. Over the course of four quarters, this difference is a crucial factor in how substantial favorites cover the spread.
To even contemplate a red zone score, Illinois must first gain entry into that area of the field. While they may be reliable and efficient, possessing a top-20 passing offense, they are also constrained by their one-dimensional offensive approach. They are ranked 72nd in rushing proficiency. Indiana has demonstrated the effective strategy: halt the run and force Illinois into predictable passing scenarios.
While Luke Altmyer has not thrown an interception, this is attributable more to the offensive scheme than to exceptional quarterback play. More than half of his passes are either short or thrown behind the line of scrimmage. Altmyer’s ability to protect the football sounds remarkable until it is recognized that the Illini seldom attempt to advance the ball deep downfield.
This approach proves effective against average defensive backfields, but against Ohio State’s pass rush and top-20 coverage unit, it restricts explosive plays and limits their scoring potential. If Altmyer and his teammates fall behind, they lack the offensive power to recover.
I am strongly inclined to favor Ohio State -14.5, particularly at the reduced line from the initial 16-point spread, as Illinois’ scoring output is likely to peak around 17 points. Throughout the four quarters, the discrepancy in red zone performance, the mismatch in the secondary, and the difference in overall depth will distinguish these two teams.
This game centers less on Ohio State’s capabilities and more on whether Illinois can muster enough points to remain competitive. At this juncture, the answer appears to be negative. Monitor the spread closely. Given the early influx of money on Illinois, you might be able to secure a clean 14 or better by the time the game commences.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Illinois is 5-1 ATS this season, including 3-0 ATS at home. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS this season.
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Ohio State has covered seven straight against ranked teams.
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Illinois is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against top-5 teams (since 2002). The last five of those games went under the total.
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Illinois is 19-10 ATS as an underdog under Bret Bielema.
