Pierre Gasly, Daniel Ricciardo, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, victors of the previous five grand prix events at Monza, share a trait beyond their status as Formula 1 drivers who’ve secured triumphs at the Italian GP.
Not one of them commenced the race from the foremost grid position.
As a matter of fact, victories originating from pole position represent a minority at Monza, a venue that has hosted a world championship grand prix annually, with a single exception, since 1950.
It would be imprudent to base predictions solely on such a broad statistical examination spanning Monza’s extensive history, given the track’s numerous alterations since 1950. Prior to 1972, the absence of a chicane on the pit straight amplified speeds leading into the Curva Grande, thus heightening the impact of slipstreaming before the initial braking point.
Furthermore, the initial chicane swiftly gained notoriety as an accident hotspot: in 1978, Ronnie Peterson tragically lost his life following a collision at the first turn, widely (though inaccurately) attributed to Riccardo Patrese, yet stemming from the race’s commencement before all cars had fully halted on the grid. The configuration has undergone multiple revisions since then to mitigate the bottleneck effect, with the current track layout being in effect only since 2000.
The distance separating the start line from Turn 1 spans slightly over 470m, sufficient to generate a moderate slipstreaming effect. However, the scrutiny of competitors has intensified in recent years, leading drivers to exhibit less inclination towards taking liberties into Turn 1.
Charles Leclerc, the last polesitter to win the Italian GP, leading the pack into the first corners in 2019
Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images
Since the introduction of the updated Turn 1 configuration in 2000, 14 events at Monza have witnessed victories from pole position, yet the period spanning 2020 to 2024 marks the most prolonged stretch without such an occurrence.
Does this signify a trend, or are those forecasting a subpar outcome for Verstappen today falling prey to the Gambler’s fallacy – the cognitive predisposition wherein individuals overestimate the likelihood of an event predicated on the frequency of analogous results in the recent past? The latter appears more plausible.
Even beyond the timeframe under consideration, numerous instances of pole sitters relinquishing their lead at Monza arose due to mechanical failures (e.g., Juan Pablo Montoya in 2002) or suboptimal starts (Lewis Hamilton in 2016).
In 2020, eventual victor Gasly commenced the race from 10th place on the grid and remained on the periphery in the race’s initial stages, during which Hamilton maintained his lead from pole. Two safety car deployments and a subsequent red flag influenced the outcome: Gasly executed his pit stop advantageously during the first instance, while Hamilton incurred a penalty for entering the pit lane while it was closed, owing to Kevin Magnussen’s Haas experiencing a breakdown there.
Gasly gained track position and subsequently assumed the lead following the restart when Lance Stroll committed an error, and Hamilton served his penalty.
The 2021 event adopted a sprint weekend format, thereby slightly skewing circumstances due to the grid’s determination by the sprint race’s outcome. Valtteri Bottas was slated to start from pole position but was unable to do so due to a penalty incurred for utilizing new power unit components. Commencing from second on the grid, Ricciardo executed a marginally superior start compared to substitute polesitter Verstappen, thereby securing the lead into Turn 1.
His prospects were further bolstered by a contentious collision involving Verstappen and Hamilton, who occupied the second and third positions, respectively, later in the race.
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, crash out of the race
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
In 2022, Leclerc maintained the lead from pole position during the initial lap, yet Verstappen possessed a demonstrably swifter car in terms of race pace – he was situated slightly unfavorably on the grid (seventh due to a penalty for incorporating new power unit components) and maneuvered through the field to legitimately assume the lead when the race concluded under safety car conditions.
The subsequent year witnessed Verstappen similarly benefiting from a car advantage, though he had inadvertently ventured into the gravel during Q3 and commenced the race from second position on the grid. Carlos Sainz initially helmed the race from pole position for Ferrari, yet visibly struggled to fend off Verstappen; on lap 15, he experienced a lock-up at Turn 1, thereby enabling Verstappen to capitalize on the opportunity for an enhanced exit. Subsequently, he steadily distanced himself from the Ferrari.
Last season, Lando Norris secured pole position and maintained the lead through Turn 1, only to be overtaken by his own teammate, Oscar Piastri, later in the lap, a maneuver that facilitated Leclerc’s opportunistic advancement to second place. Leclerc then executed an early pit stop for hard tires and gained track position when Piastri pitted.
Diverse circumstances, therefore, characterize the past five victories at Monza, precluding any certainty regarding the perpetuation of this purported trend…
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