With many of the world’s finest golfers utilizing the holiday weekend for relaxation, the 2025 John Deere Classic bestows a golden opportunity upon players aspiring to a noteworthy triumph. Following the initial round on Thursday, two prominent figures, Max Homa and Rickie Fowler, have strategically placed themselves to potentially secure their inaugural victory of 2025 and their seventh overall on the PGA Tour.
Fowler initiated the tournament with an impressive 6-under 65, positioning him a mere three strokes behind Doug Ghim, who seized the 18-hole lead with a remarkable 9-under. Fowler’s start was nothing short of dramatic, commencing with a birdie-birdie-double bogey sequence on the back nine, ultimately concluding with an even-par 36. However, he unleashed his prowess on the front side at TPC Deere Run, carding a stunning 6-under 29, propelling him up the leaderboard and establishing himself as a force to be reckoned with throughout the weekend.
Despite his stellar performance, Fowler wasn’t the lowest scorer in his group, as Homa delivered an outstanding 8-under 63, ascending to T2 as Friday approached. Homa discovered a rhythm off the tee and displayed exceptional putting skills, propelling him into contention during what has been a challenging year. Homa is currently without a top 10 finish this season and has openly expressed his frustrations with his swing. However, Thursday was a different story, and while there are still three rounds remaining on a course known for yielding low scores, Homa expressed his satisfaction after the round, stating that he would relish the opportunity to string together another day of exceptional golf.
“It won’t linger in my thoughts as I depart today,” he remarked when questioned about the sustainability of his opening-round performance. “I executed a solid round of golf; each day presents unique challenges. I do believe we’ve identified a solution with the driver, all the long clubs, and it was gratifying to sustain that for 18 complete holes. I didn’t execute a single errant shot today, which was encouraging.”
Homa and Fowler will once again be paired with Jake Knapp (-3) on Friday afternoon, with the trio aiming to maintain their positive momentum. When asked about competing on a course where the winning score is anticipated to be in the 20-under range, Homa emphasized the importance of patience and avoiding forced plays, as ample opportunities will inevitably arise.
“Patience is paramount, even when scores are exceptionally low,” he stated. “Consider Rickie’s round today. He encountered a couple of setbacks early on but regained his composure and carded a remarkably low score. While it may feel like a race against the clock in your mind, it’s crucial to remain composed and patient because birdie opportunities abound on this course.”
The aforementioned duo will be pursuing Ghim, who delivered an exceptional ball-striking performance, resulting in a score of 62. Ghim successfully hit 12 of 14 fairways and an impressive 17 of 18 greens in regulation. Notably, he completed the entire day without a single bogey, despite experiencing a deficit in strokes gained with the putter. It’s uncommon to witness a player leading without accumulating strokes on the green, reminiscent of Scottie Scheffler, but Ghim’s tee-to-green game was truly exceptional. If he can replicate that swing sensation throughout the week and achieve any level of success with his putter, the Texas native will undoubtedly be a contender for his first PGA Tour victory.
The leader
1. Doug Ghim (-9): Despite having more missed cuts than top 25 finishes this season, he entered the tournament following a respectable T19 at the Rocket Classic, indicating his best form of the year. The challenge lies in sustaining this momentum throughout the weekend and maintaining a scoring pace that, as Homa noted, will be essential given the typical winning scores at the John Deere. Ghim emphasized that he isn’t overly concerned with the putting statistics, highlighting potential biases in the data and emphasizing the positive aspect of his ability to score despite not sinking many long putts.
“I hit it close, found a lot of fairways, and rarely missed greens. I had to chip it off a green on 17, which probably affected the stats. I didn’t get it up and down because I had to maneuver over the corner of the bunker,” Ghim explained. “Statistically, it might appear worse than it actually was. I consistently hit it close throughout the day. I probably didn’t gain much on tap-in birdies. I two-putted for birdie a couple of times. That’s just how the stats can be sometimes. I hit it exceptionally well, holed out a wedge. Any time you can shoot 9 under without really making a putt, it’s a positive sign.”
Contenders
T2. Max Homa, Austin Eckroat (-8)
T4. David Lipsky, Sam Stevens, Justin Lower, Michael Kim (-6)
T8. Rickie Fowler, Si Woo Kim and seven others (-6)
All of the top 7 players on the leaderboard commenced their rounds as part of the morning wave, benefiting from favorable conditions with soft greens and calm winds before the course firmed up in the afternoon. Friday will reveal whether there is a significant advantage for the early wave or if the late-early groups will experience the same benefit during the second round. As of now, it appears that those who teed off early on Thursday have a slight advantage.
Eckroat joins Homa in T2 at 8 under and is pursuing his third career win after securing two titles in 2024. Meanwhile, Kim lingers in the extensive group at 6 under, alongside Fowler, Matt Kuchar, and others, all hoping to secure their first victories of 2025. Given the potential for low scores at TPC Deere Run, the competition is far from over for those at the top of the leaderboard. Players slightly further back, such as Denny McCarthy at 5 under or SaJake Knapp and Sungjae Im at 3 under, are only one exceptional round away from propelling themselves into contention as the weekend approaches.
2025 John Deere Classic updated odds, picks
Odds via BetMGM
- Doug Ghim (10-1)
- Max Homa (12-1)
- Austin Eckroat (14-1)
- Kevin Yu (16-1)
- Michael Kim (16-1)
- Sam Stevens (16-1)
- Si Woo Kim (16-1)
- Denny McCarthy (20-1)
- Emiliano Grillo (25-1)
- Rickie Fowler (25-1)
This week’s tournament hinges on the ability to consistently card low rounds, as the event is typically won with a score exceeding 20 under par. Among the players at the top of the leaderboard, Eckroat exhibits remarkable staying power and presents value at 14-1. His iron play was second only to Ghim on Thursday, and I anticipate that he will maintain a strong performance on Friday. Further down the leaderboard, McCarthy, the pre-tournament favorite, is only four strokes off the lead after a respectable 66. If there were ever an opportune moment to capitalize on a skilled iron player and putter, it would be now at 20-1.
