The 2025 NFL season’s sixteenth week has commenced following a significant NFC West clash where the Seahawks triumphed over the Rams in an extended session on Thursday evening. We will now review essential information for the remaining fifteen fixtures scheduled. Our NFL commentators provide late-breaking insights concerning games from Saturday to Monday.
To begin, statistical expert Seth Walder examines three statistical patterns with potential influence this weekend. Next, fantasy football author Eric Moody identifies five athletes, held in less than half of ESPN’s fantasy competitions as of Saturday, who could serve as viable starters in urgent situations. Subsequently, NFL expert Ben Solak presents three possible unexpected outcomes, NFL pundit Matt Bowen outlines a crucial game pairing to observe, and sports wagering specialist Pamela Maldonado reveals her preferred wager for the fifteenth week. Additionally, we solicited responses from our NFL Nation journalists regarding notable quarterback circumstances across the league.
Is it possible for the Packers to establish a strong pass rush in the absence of Micah Parsons? Might signal-callers J.J. McCarthy and Tyler Shough deliver impressive fantasy football results? Will the Eagles experience an unexpected defeat against the Commanders? Could Bears’ first-year running back Kyle Monangai achieve an outstanding game? What wager is most prominent in the Patriots-Ravens game? And how has a complete week of readiness unfolded for Colts’ quarterback Philip Rivers? We explore these topics thoroughly.
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Statistical insights | Underrated fantasy players
Likely upsets | Crucial confrontation
Top wager | Quarterback discussions
Walder: Three significant statistical patterns that might influence Week 16 victors
Can the Packers’ defense create pressure on the quarterback when facing the Bears, despite the absence of edge rusher Micah Parsons?
Undoubtedly, the Packers will experience the impact of Parsons’ season-ending torn ACL, yet the extent of the squad’s performance variations with and without him is astonishing. When Parsons has played this season, Green Bay achieved a 43.9% pass rush success rate, placing them approximately third in the NFL. In his absence, this figure declines to 23.4%, which would position them 32nd. Their allowed Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback rose from 0.06 to 0.15. Furthermore, opposing teams’ pass rate above expectation against them shifted from a deficit of 10% to a surplus of 2%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Consequently, Green Bay must discover a method to pressure the passer when confronting Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, who has recently proven difficult to sack. Should edge defender Lukas Van Ness be able to participate following a week of restricted practice due to a foot ailment, it would provide considerable assistance. He boasts the highest pass rush success rate (12.7%) among all Packers players, excluding Parsons, who have accumulated at least 100 pass rushes; however, even his rate is roughly half of Parsons’ metric (24.6%).
Will the Steelers be able to neutralize Detroit’s use of play-action fakes?
As is typical, the Lions employ play-action frequently, ranking among the league’s top users. They utilize it on 30% of their passing plays, which is the fourth-highest frequency in the NFL. This approach is logical, as play-action generally boosts offensive effectiveness. However, this advantage may not hold true when they face the Steelers.
Pittsburgh stands out as one of the few squads whose defense performs more effectively when opposing play-action (allowing a minus-0.10 Expected Points Added per dropback, ranking third) compared to non-play-action scenarios (plus-0.07, ranking twentieth). Should Pittsburgh successfully disrupt one of Detroit’s preferred offensive strategies, it would provide a significant advantage in this match-up between two teams vying for a postseason berth.
What performance can be expected from Titans’ signal-caller Cam Ward when confronted with the Chiefs’ aggressive defensive blitz schemes?
The Titans confront a game that has unexpectedly become more favorable against the Gardner Minshew-captained Chiefs, subsequent to Kansas City’s removal from playoff contention and Patrick Mahomes’ complete tear of his left anterior cruciate ligament. Nevertheless, the Chiefs pose a particular challenge for the Titans that is independent of their starting quarterback.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit sends extra rushers on 35% of plays, positioning them as the third-most blitz-heavy team in the league. This strategy has proven to be a specific vulnerability for Ward. Although his current 31.2 QBR places him last in the NFL, this figure falls to 13.7 when he faces a blitz. Even with slight enhancements in Ward’s play over the last fortnight (achieving a 46.9 QBR since Week 11), his QBR against the blitz remains a mere 9.5. For the Titans to overcome the struggling Chiefs, Ward may need to successfully complete passes when Kansas City applies additional pressure.
Moody: Five underrated fantasy players worthy of acquisition — and viable for starting this week
J.J. McCarthy, Quarterback, Minnesota Vikings (owned in 34.3% of leagues)
McCarthy has demonstrated strong play recently, accumulating a minimum of 20 fantasy points in back-to-back contests. He gains an advantage from premier receiving talents like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and he further contributes through his capacity to run. McCarthy is now set to encounter a Giants’ defensive unit that has conceded the second-highest average fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Additionally, New York has permitted the highest number of rushing attempts and rushing yardage to players at this position.
Darren Waller, Tight End, Miami Dolphins (owned in 29.1% of leagues)
Waller recorded his highest target count (eight) and fantasy point total (25.6) for the season during Monday’s game against the Steelers. Despite starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s recent benching due to a league-leading 15 interceptions, rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers is still in a position to exploit a beneficial pairing for Waller. This season, the Bengals’ defensive unit has yielded the highest average fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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Schefter to McAfee: Tua benching the first step in Miami moving on
Adam Schefter joins Pat McAfee to break down the Dolphins’ options after benching Tua Tagovailoa.
Michael Carter, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals (owned in 24.7% of leagues)
Carter is expected to serve as the Cardinals’ primary running back when they face the Falcons, as Bam Knight has been placed on injured reserve following an ankle ailment sustained in Week 15. Carter assumed Knight’s role after his departure from the Houston game, concluding with 18 offensive touches and 13.4 fantasy points. This was a notable performance against a top-tier defensive unit. The Falcons’ defense is average when defending against running backs, positioning Carter as a reliable choice for fantasy managers in less common league structures.
Tyler Shough, Quarterback, New Orleans Saints (owned in 8.8% of leagues)
Shough represents a compelling choice due to his recent fantasy football output and his potential for rushing yardage. Over the last trio of games, the first-year player has achieved a 70% completion rate and accumulated a minimum of 17 fantasy points in each contest. During this period, Shough also averaged 35.5 rushing yards per game, tallying two rushing scores. He is poised for a favorable outcome when facing a Jets’ defensive unit that permitted Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence to register 44.3 fantasy points in Week 15.
Jalen Coker, Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers (owned in 5.5% of leagues)
Coker has been targeted at least four times in five consecutive games and has attained a minimum of 11 fantasy points in three of those matchups. The sophomore wideout is showing an upward trajectory at an opportune moment for fantasy team managers in more specialized league settings. Since Week 12, the Buccaneers’ defense has been significantly vulnerable to quarterbacks, surrendering 1,098 passing yards and eight touchdowns. Atlanta’s quarterback Kirk Cousins recently recorded 26.9 fantasy points against their porous secondary in Week 15. Coker is favorably positioned to receive passes from Bryce Young this week.
Solak: Anticipate the possibility that …
Bears’ backfield player Kyle Monangai secures the top rushing yardage across the league this week. D’Andre Swift’s availability for Saturday’s contest is uncertain, and the Packers’ defensive unit will be missing not only Parsons but also premier run-stopping safety Evan Williams. Furthermore, Chicago has two wide receivers (Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze) officially sidelined for this match, indicating a probable heavy reliance on their ground game. Monangai might receive the predominant portion of handoffs, setting the first-year player up for his third 100-yard performance this season.
The Commanders achieve an unexpected victory over the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offensive unit appeared revitalized when facing the Raiders, contrasting with the Commanders’ pass defense, which ranks among the league’s least effective (29th in passing yards conceded per game). However, Washington’s offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has previously found success against Philly’s defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s schemes. Under coach Dan Quinn, the Commanders have also maintained intense effort despite a season already decided. Divisional surprises in the final month of the year are always a possibility, and the Eagles do not inspire unwavering confidence.
Shough secures the Offensive Rookie of the Year accolade. Initially considered a massive longshot for this recognition at 200-1, his odds have now improved to 14-1, placing him fifth. Shough will confront a significantly weakened Jets’ defensive backfield on Sunday, and given the opposing team’s struggling offense, he could be afforded sufficient possessions and advantageous field positions to achieve scores exceeding 30 points and total yardage beyond 300. His performance trajectory is clearly ascending.
Bowen: Essential confrontation to observe
The adaptability of Chicago’s ground attack against Green Bay’s defensive unit
During the second half of their Week 14 encounter with the Packers, the Bears accumulated 90 rushing yards. Swift and Monangai executed numerous forceful runs, employing a combination of zone, power, and deceptive running schemes. Furthermore, coach Ben Johnson’s deployment of tight ends, predominantly utilizing pre-snap shifts, afforded the Bears both numerical advantages and favorable blocking angles at the point of engagement. Expect Chicago to frequently employ 12 personnel (comprising one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers) in Saturday night’s game against Green Bay.
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How important is a Bears victory vs. the Packers on Saturday?
Kimberley A. Martin, Louis Riddick, Peter Schrager and Domonique Foxworth discuss how important a Bears win would be over the Packers.
Maldonado: My preferred wager for Week 16
New England Patriots receiving 2.5 points against the Baltimore Ravens
Regarding offensive play volume and effectiveness, the Patriots demonstrate greater consistency compared to the Ravens. New England habitually executes a higher number of offensive plays, thereby reducing statistical variability and restricting the margin by which opponents can distance themselves. Conversely, Baltimore’s red zone touchdown conversion rate of 44% ranks as the second lowest in the league, hindering their capacity to gain a decisive lead against teams that maintain ball control, even if they manage to advance downfield. I favor the Patriots with the +2.5 point spread, but I also envision a scenario where they achieve an outright victory.
NFL Nation: Quarterback inquiries
How has Philip Rivers’ initial complete week of readiness unfolded for the Colts?
Rivers has participated in the vast majority of primary team practice repetitions, and the objective this week is to implement a more assertive offensive strategy compared to Rivers’ debut game last Sunday. Rivers passed for 120 yards against the Seahawks, which made it challenging for the Colts to keep pace with Seattle’s scoring. He stated, “Our strategy for that game was precisely what we executed.” He added, “I perceive no genuine constraints when advancing the ball deep. Will I launch it 60 yards? No, but truthfully, I seldom achieved that feat throughout my career.” — Stephen Holder, Colts journalist
What is the current outlook regarding Tyler Shough’s potential to begin as the Saints’ starting quarterback for the upcoming season?
Shough has recently substantiated his capabilities. He rushed for two scores in a victory over Tampa Bay and subsequently orchestrated two rallies against Carolina just last week. He has managed these feats despite the Saints’ reliance on fourth-string wideouts and running backs due to injuries. Given that the Saints’ recent successes have lowered their position in the draft order, it appears logical to allocate their draft selection towards constructing a team around Shough for the subsequent season. — Katherine Terrell, Saints journalist
What was the most noteworthy observation gathered from Bo Nix’s performance, which included four scoring throws against Green Bay?
Over the last quartet of games, Broncos’ coach Sean Payton has utilized his quarterback from under center more frequently than in the season’s initial stages, coinciding with Nix’s three highest annual passing totals occurring within that timeframe. This adjustment has refined Nix’s footwork and somewhat boosted the effectiveness of the Broncos’ ground attack. This week, Broncos’ offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi remarked, “I believe his footwork has considerably improved.” Nix has recorded three of his four games this season with a minimum of 295 passing yards during those recent four contests, including the four-score performance against the Packers. — Jeff Legwold, Broncos journalist
After two impressive starts, has J.J. McCarthy truly “unleashed his full potential”?
Since recovering from a Week 13 concussion, McCarthy has unmistakably appeared less agitated and more assured in his choices, and his two most recent performances are unequivocally the finest of his professional tenure. Across that fortnight, his 82.1 QBR places him fifth in the NFL. A significant contributing factor: He has released the football, on average, 2.77 seconds post-snap, marking the eighth quickest release time in the league during that period. However, widespread celebration is not yet underway. These victories were achieved against defensive units that rank 30th (Commanders) and 32nd (Cowboys) in terms of expected points added per play. — Kevin Seifert, Vikings journalist
