Last Monday night’s double feature delivered intriguing outcomes in our regular dive into the NFL’s primetime conclusion.
We succeeded with five out of six individual player predictions (+3.9 units) and added 1.9 units from a collection of potential touchdown scorers. In spite of possessing sufficient insight to thrive in the supplementary markets, neither wager on the main outcome was successful. Houston (-2.5) couldn’t subdue Baker Mayfield on the decisive drive, and Geno Smith politely declined the Chargers’ repeated opportunities for a late, inconsequential score.
Looking ahead to the present week, the Monday contest is noteworthy enough to warrant attention, eliminating the need for extra caffeine consumption on Tuesday morning. However, knowledgeable individuals have already scrutinized it, leading to adjustments in the initial odds.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 53.5)
Following a Sunday night introduction of Ravens -6, the line for this game has moved down to the current -4.5. The central question is whether there is remaining advantage in supporting the Lions.
There are three fundamental considerations when analyzing the betting community’s diminished view of the Lions this year:
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The departure of their offensive and defensive strategists, potentially resulting in decreased effectiveness on both sides of the field
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The growing enthusiasm for the Eagles as the dominant team in the NFC East in 2025, due to the signing of several new players, making Philadelphia the favorite in the NFC East
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The common sentiment that repeating an extraordinary season with only two losses is unlikely
Number 3 is rather self-evident and hard to dispute, as no team maintains that level of superiority. The Lions’ exceptional record was due to both favorable circumstances and a schedule that worked in their favor.
Number 2 is irrelevant to the Lions, except during their games against Philadelphia.
Number 1 (the absence of both strategists) necessitates continuous monitoring. Unfortunately, both the Lions’ offense and defense had to face the Eagles in Week 1, which initially caused confusion about the impact of Number 1. Subsequently, the Lions played the Commanders at home last week, and the offense suddenly resembled last season’s version—one that instilled fear both on the ground and through the air.
This iteration of the Lions’ offense will present challenges for the Ravens’ pass defense, as did the Bills in Week 1, along with many of the elite quarterbacks Baltimore faced in the previous season. What’s even more concerning for the Ravens is the absence of key defensive player Michael Brockers, who plays a crucial role in stopping the run.
The Lions’ defense will face challenges, which explains the game’s elevated combined score expectation of well over 50. The Detroit defensive unit remains riddled with question marks in its depth chart, a situation that has persisted for over a year. Furthermore, the Ravens’ offense is somewhat less intricate without Mark Andrews and Patrick Ricard.
If the Lions were the favorites, we’d hesitate to anticipate them pulling away from a formidable team. However, needing only to stay within a field goal, we can draw a parallel to last season’s Thursday night clash between the Bengals and Ravens in Week 10 (decided by a late missed 2-point conversion).
Pick: Lions +4.5
Player props
Lions WR Isaac TeSlaa: Under 13.5 receiving yards (-115)
Following an impressive preseason, TeSlaa has secured a couple of receptions that were so remarkable that they required confirmation. While this may earn the rookie third-round pick additional playing opportunities, it’s uncommon for players who have participated in just three and 17 snaps in their two games this season to be featured in individual player betting markets.
TeSlaa’s two catches were the result of two total targets. Had he not made those catches (or if the reviews had gone against him), his name wouldn’t be found in Monday’s betting options.
Both catches exceeded 13.5 yards, but his longest reception is set at 10.5, effectively giving us an extra three yards on a wager that will likely hinge on whether he can secure a single target. This assumes that he’ll even get that chance in a contest that’s projected to be closer than the ones in which he saw most of his playing time against the Eagles and Commanders after the outcomes were already determined.
Jared Goff: Under 34.5 pass attempts (-110)
Brockers’ injury should provide the Lions with a chance to run the ball more effectively than they might otherwise, utilizing both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams to create play-action opportunities for their downfield passing attack. Unless they fall behind by more than two scores, the strategy should be to execute a typical “road game” plan, where minimizing the game clock is a primary goal, reducing the need for Goff to repeatedly drop back and throw.
Lamar Jackson: Over 285.5 passing and rushing yards (-115)
It’s “Prime-time Lamar Jackson,” so, regardless of your prediction for the game’s outcome, we’ll venture into the over on a bet that essentially asks, “Will Lamar be productive?”
Jackson has come close to this total in two games this season. He wasn’t heavily involved late last week, and he likely would have secured the few yards needed to reach this number if Derrick Henry hadn’t been dominating in Buffalo — a common occurrence against the Bills — in Week 1.
Against teams that can keep pace offensively and aren’t overwhelmed by Henry, Jackson has been compelled to amass over 300 total yards against teams like the Bengals, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and 49ers under the lights in recent seasons.
Anytime touchdowns
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (+130 or better)
Odds of +130 for St. Brown to score imply that it should occur roughly 45% of the time to be a sound wager.
Even when factoring in a scoreless playoff game, St. Brown scored in 11 of 18 games last season and has started this season with a 1-for-2 record. Scoring in 63% of your games should make you a likely scorer in any game, especially in one with a high combined score expectation. Furthermore, St. Brown not only scored last week, but he also had three touchdowns, demonstrating that nothing has changed since last season, when he scored in eight consecutive games.
Lions WR Jameson Williams (+225 or better)
The Ravens’ defensive vulnerability lies in the occasional coverage breakdown that a talented quarterback and/or a well-designed play can exploit, and Williams is the last player you want to see running free in your secondary.
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Like St. Brown, Williams’ odds (an implied probability of 31%) don’t accurately reflect his capabilities from the previous season—a standard for Detroit’s offense that we haven’t abandoned solely because Ben Johnson left, and they struggled in a challenging Week 1 matchup.
Scoring in half of his regular season games in 2024, Williams truly came into his own with his first 1000-yard season, adding a 3-yard rushing touchdown. He may not have a 50/50 chance of reaching the end zone, but with the Lions consistently seeking opportunities to unleash one of the league’s fastest players, anything better than +200 is worth considering.
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (+220 or better)
“What has become of Rashod Bateman?” some might wonder while examining the Ravens’ stat sheet, noticing that seemingly all the other receivers have scored TDs so far this season.
After all, Bateman appeared to find the end zone frequently last year, scoring nine times in eight of the Ravens’ 17 regular-season games and in each of their playoff games.
The Ravens discovered something with Zay Flowers’ matchup against the Bills in Week 1, and the lopsided score in Week 2 allowed Baltimore’s depth players to participate in a fourth quarter where the Ravens continued to score against Cleveland.
Overall, Bateman remains second on the team in both receiver snaps and targets. If the betting market chooses to overlook Jackson’s confidence in Bateman in the red zone, we’ll gladly accept a better than 2-to-1 payout on one of his preferred targets to score.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
