The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has unveiled the men’s and women’s championship tournament pairings. Customarily, the teams positioned as either advantageous or disadvantaged emerged from Sunday’s announcement events.
Regarding the men’s teams, a Southeastern Conference (SEC) team faced disappointment by not qualifying, even after achieving some of the most impressive victories nationwide. Furthermore, two top-ranked No. 1 seeds are considered unfortunate due to the challenging routes they face en route to the Final Four, despite their premier seeding.
Among the fortunate participants are Miami (Ohio), Missouri, and the hosting municipality of St. Louis.
Access details for the women’s teams categorized as advantaged and disadvantaged following Selection Sunday
Fortunate Selection: Miami (Ohio)
The Redhawks have secured their spot. Moreover, they were not the final at-large squad to be included in the competition.
During the regular season, Miami achieved an unblemished 31-0 record; however, a preliminary round defeat against UMass in the Mid-American Conference (MAC) tournament jeopardized its NCAA championship eligibility.
Their flawless regular season record undeniably represented the most outstanding performance in collegiate basketball for the current year. Nevertheless, a fixture list devoid of any Quad 1 encounters and comprising a combined 26 games against Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents cast uncertainty over Miami’s prospects for an at-large berth. This squad did not garner favor in statistical models. Until Sunday, the MAC’s capacity to secure two bids remained unconfirmed.
But Miami eventually gained entry, and the process proved less strenuous than initially anticipated. Although Miami secured one of the final four positions, Keith Gill, chairman of the NCAA men’s basketball committee, informed CBS that Miami was chosen over SMU, Texas, and NC State—all major conference teams that were also vying for the last spots.
As an 11th seed, Miami is scheduled to compete in a First Four contest against SMU to advance to the primary tournament draw. Conveniently, this match will take place just a few hours from their home base in Dayton, Ohio, on Wednesday.
-Jason Owens
Who were the biggest Winners and Losers on Selection Sunday? (Josh Heim/Yahoo Sports)
Disadvantaged: Auburn
Bruce Pearl observed the proceedings directly on the CBS set. Sunday’s announcements brought unfavorable tidings for the former Auburn head coach, whose offspring, Steven Pearl, currently guides the Tigers. Auburn was among the initial four teams excluded from the bracket, marking a shift from their Final Four appearance as a top seed just one year prior.
Auburn commenced the season with ambitions of renewed contention within the SEC, targeting a strong NCAA seeding as the nation’s 20th-ranked team in the preseason. They incurred several notable early defeats against then-top-ranked Houston, 7th-ranked Michigan, and 6th-ranked Purdue during their non-conference schedule.
Nevertheless, the Tigers also secured significant victories that strengthened their argument for NCAA tournament inclusion. They vanquished St. John’s, a 5th seed, in November. During conference play, they triumphed over Arkansas, a No. 4 seed, by a 22-point margin. Their most compelling case for entry was an away victory against the reigning champion and No. 1 seed Florida in January.
These achievements, however, proved insufficient to offset a 17-16 overall record and a 7-11 performance in SEC matchups. Despite advanced analytics placing Auburn at No. 38 in NET rankings and 44th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), these figures could not secure their participation in the tournament.
-Owens
Beneficiary: Missouri
The Tigers concluded their season with a three-game skid, suffering losses to Oklahoma on the road, Arkansas at home, and Kentucky in the SEC tournament. While both the Razorbacks and Wildcats are contenders, this losing streak placed Missouri precariously on the brink of NCAA tournament qualification leading into Selection Sunday.
This perception turned out to be inaccurate. Not only did the Tigers bypass participation in a First Four game in Dayton, but they also secured a highly favorable venue for their initial round. Mizzou entered the tournament as a No. 10 seed and is set to face No. 7 Miami on Friday in St. Louis. Should the Tigers overcome the Hurricanes, they would likely possess a considerable home-court advantage in a subsequent second-round game against No. 2 Purdue.
-Nick Bromberg
Unfortunate Outcome: Duke
Duke holds the top overall seed, even though they enter the NCAA tournament grappling with health worries concerning their starting center Patrick Ngongba and starting point guard Caleb Foster, both of whom were sidelined during the ACC tournament due to foot ailments. Given this, how can the Blue Devils be categorized as disadvantaged following Selection Sunday?
Even with their status as the No. 1 overall seed, Duke encounters the most formidable route among all top seeds. Their East region draw notably features the No. 2 seed UConn, a team that was a strong contender for a No. 1 seed until their defeat in the Big East championship to St. John’s. This particular Huskies squad, under coach Dan Hurley, has claimed two of the last three NCAA titles.
Duke is the No. 1 overall seed, but its path to the Final Four won’t be easy.
(Lance King via Getty Images)
Anticipated opponents for Duke in the Sweet 16 include either St. John’s (a No. 5 seed) or a No. 4 seed Kansas team, which boasts Darryn Peterson, a strong candidate for the top pick in the upcoming June NBA Draft. Should UConn fail to reach the regional final, a formidable No. 3 seed Michigan State squad might pose a challenge to Duke. If the Blue Devils manage to reach the Final Four, it will have been accomplished via an exceptionally arduous route for a top-seeded team.
-Owens
Beneficiary: St. Louis
It is difficult to recall any other host city for the initial two rounds that received such a favorable pairing. Admission costs in St. Louis might reach the highest levels among all venues during the opening weekend.
Beyond hosting Missouri for at least one contest and being conveniently situated a four-hour drive from Indianapolis, home to numerous Purdue supporters, St. Louis will also see both Iowa State and Kentucky competing within its limits. Iowa State enthusiasts customarily inundate Kansas City for the Big 12 tournament and are expected to attend in substantial numbers in St. Louis. Kentucky supporters are likewise known for their extensive travel, with Lexington merely five hours distant and Louisville under four hours away.
-Bromberg
Disadvantaged: Illinois
The Illini could potentially surpass Purdue in terms of an unfavorable geographical setting for a prospective second-round encounter. As the No. 3 seed, Illinois has been allocated to Greenville, South Carolina, for the initial two rounds. Their probable adversary in the second round is No. 6 North Carolina. Greenville is situated under four hours from the Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area and a mere 90 minutes from Charlotte.
Illinois’ sole prospect for a substantial fan presence might derive from Duke, who is likewise competing in Greenville. It’s plausible that a sufficient number of Duke supporters will acquire tickets for the opening and subsequent round games and attend to cheer against North Carolina in the second round. They certainly will not be rooting for the Tar Heels.
-Bromberg
The tournament committee didn’t do Illinois any favors by placing it in Greenville. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Beneficiary: The West Coast Conference
The conference successfully placed three teams in the NCAA tournament, a feat not achieved since 2022 and only the fourth instance in its history. Gonzaga (No. 3 seed), Saint Mary’s (No. 7 seed), and Santa Clara (No. 10 seed) will represent the WCC, with the Broncos notably bypassing the First Four games in Dayton. It would not be unexpected if all three teams emerge victorious in their initial round matchups, potentially seeing either the Gaels or Broncos join the Zags in the Sweet 16.
However, this accomplishment carries a hint of melancholy for the WCC. It is likely the final occasion—at least in the near future—that the conference will field three teams in the championship. Gonzaga is slated to depart next season, joining the reconfigured Pac-12 solely for basketball. The Zags have secured a spot in the NCAA tournament annually since 1999 and have participated in all four instances when the conference managed to send three teams to March Madness.
-Bromberg
Unfavorable Draw: Florida
Partially due to UConn and Houston’s defeats in their respective conference tournament championships, Florida secured its desired No. 1 seed, a position that was jeopardized after a loss in the SEC semifinals. Nevertheless, this final top seed in the bracket includes a notable drawback.
Florida is slated to compete in the South region, facing the No. 2 seed Houston. Should both teams progress, they are set to encounter each other in the South regional final, a game scheduled to take place in Houston.
Rice University has been designated as the formal host for the South regional, which is scheduled at the Toyota Center, the home arena of the Houston Rockets. This arrangement functions as a workaround, permitting Houston to participate within this specific region, despite NCAA regulations generally prohibiting teams from competing in regions they officially host.
It should be clearly understood, however. Should Florida encounter Houston in the Elite Eight, this matchup will effectively serve as a home game for Houston, even though Florida holds the No. 1 seeding in the region.
-Owens
Female Tournament Bracket: Fortunate and Unfortunate Teams
Within the women’s bracket, certain No. 1 seeds were granted notably less challenging routes compared to their counterparts. Concurrently, a UCLA squad, which had vied with UConn for the top overall seed, now faces the most arduous struggle in the tournament to reach the Final Four.
Beneficiary: South Carolina
South Carolina secured the final No. 1 overall seed, yet it potentially enjoys the most straightforward route to the Final Four this March.
The Gamecocks, who faced difficulties against Texas in the SEC championship match, are positioned in the Sacramento 4 region alongside No. 2 Iowa, No. 3 TCU, and No. 4 Oklahoma. It appears none of these teams possess the capacity to genuinely rival South Carolina.
Admittedly, Oklahoma did defeat the Gamecocks several months prior, but that victory occurred in overtime and was a genuine upset, and since then, the Sooners have suffered defeats against three top-10 ranked teams. TCU, featuring the skilled Olivia Miles, has experienced several disappointing losses this season and holds a mere 4-3 record in Quad 1 contests. Iowa, despite being a robust team, was utterly outmatched by UCLA in the Big Ten championship game just last week. Consequently, South Carolina and the Bruins appear to be on relatively comparable ground at this juncture.
The most significant challenge for South Carolina could, in fact, be the cross-country flight to Sacramento for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds. Assuming they manage the journey effectively, the Gamecocks appear to be the primary beneficiaries among the quartet of No. 1 seeds.
-Ryan Young
Unfortunate Draw: UCLA
UCLA presented a strong statistical argument for securing the No. 1 overall seed ahead of undefeated UConn. However, the selection committee was unable to disregard UConn’s commanding performance, which culminated in a 34-0 record and a decisive 90-51 victory over Villanova in the Big East championship game. As a result, UConn received the premier placement in Sunday’s bracket announcement.
UCLA does not commence the NCAA tournament without a loss. Yet, their record is nearly flawless. The Bruins have remained undefeated since a November loss to fellow No. 1 seed Texas and arrive at the NCAA tournament with a 31-1 record, having navigated a significantly more challenging schedule compared to UConn.
UCLA boasts a 19-1 record when facing Quad 1 adversaries, in contrast to UConn’s 9-0, with UConn not encountering any ranked teams in its conference schedule. Conversely, the Bruins achieved a 12-1 record in contests against ranked opponents and concluded their season with a commanding 96-45 triumph over then-No. 9 Iowa in the Big Ten championship game.
In the end, the undefeated Huskies’ visual performance proved decisive. Amanda Braun, who chairs the NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee, informed ESPN that “the discussion was quite tight” between the two teams, but UConn eventually gained the upper hand due to its “tangible aspects.”
-Owens
Advantageous Position: Texas
The top-seeded Texas team will not be required to journey extensively on its route to the Final Four. The Longhorns, consistent with all top four seeds, are slated to host their initial and second-round games within the NCAA tournament competition.
Should they progress, their subsequent destination will be Fort Worth, situated approximately a three-hour drive north on I-35 from Austin. This brief journey from their home base positions Fort Worth as a welcoming venue for Texas, effectively making them the home team in the Fort Worth regional, within a state known for its devotion to the Longhorns.
Phoenix, the host city for the Final Four, is not in immediate proximity. However, should Texas reach that stage, the travel from Austin would be considerably shorter than from Storrs, Connecticut, or Columbia, South Carolina.
-Owens
Disadvantage: NC State
NC State secured a No. 7 seed, and in return, faces arguably the most challenging initial round opponent among lower-seeded teams in the competition. The Wolfpack are set to confront the No. 10 seed Tennessee, a team that began the season ranked 8th nationally and which NC State narrowly defeated 80-77 in a closely fought season-opening game.
Tennessee concluded its season with one of the nation’s weakest performances, enduring a 2-10 run that saw their record fall from 14-3 to 16-13, consequently dropping them out of the national rankings. Nevertheless, the team retains an analytical standing that places it higher in NET rankings (23rd) than NC State (26th).
Should Tennessee manage to rekindle even a semblance of its earlier performance, it portends an extremely formidable first-round contest for the Wolfpack.
-Owens
Fortunate: Minnesota
The Gophers are afforded the opportunity to host the tournament’s inaugural round, commencing with a match against Green Bay on Friday. This represents a substantial benefit for the leading 16 teams in the women’s competition and unquestionably enhances their chances of progressing beyond the initial weekend.
However, Minnesota secured the last hosting privilege, narrowly surpassing Maryland—a team with a strong claim to host its own games. The Terps defeated Minnesota in a surprising double-overtime match in December, and neither squad excelled against Quad 1 opponents. Maryland recorded a 6-8 standing in such games, experiencing significant losses at Michigan, UCLA, and against Iowa. Minnesota managed only a 5-7 record in similar matchups. Nonetheless, the Gophers concluded their season with considerably stronger performances, which appears to have been the decisive factor. They claimed victory in 10 of their final 12 games before a tight elimination by Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals. During the identical period, Maryland achieved a 6-6 record.
On paper, these teams appear quite comparable. Yet, the Gophers emerged victorious in the crucial contest. Whether this triumph suffices to propel them beyond the tournament’s opening weekend—a feat they haven’t accomplished since 2005—is yet to be determined.
— Young
