In recent times, the Las Vegas Raiders haven’t showcased exceptional performance in the realm of football. Their combined victories over the past three seasons amount to a mere 18 games, placing them among the teams with the fewest wins in the NFL. The previous season witnessed only four victories, tying them for the fourth-worst record in the NFL, surpassed only by three teams with three wins each. Looking at a broader perspective, the Raiders’ performance has been even more underwhelming. Since 2002, they’ve only secured two playoff appearances, with only the Cleveland Browns exhibiting a poorer record during that period.
However, Maxx Crosby, the team’s prominent edge rusher, perceives optimism in the Raiders’ current circumstances, drawing inspiration from another team that, in the not-so-distant past, struggled with numerous losses but ultimately ascended to championship glory: the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder.
“We witnessed it firsthand in the NBA: OKC, just a short while ago, languished as one of the league’s weakest teams,” Crosby remarked, as reported by The Athletic. “Yet, they possessed a core of young talent, maintained faith in their developmental journey, and nurtured their skills. Now, they stand as world champions. Our aspiration is to achieve victory. I harbor an intense desire to win and dedicate my utmost efforts towards that goal. I aspire for everyone to share this mindset. My objective has been to rally as many individuals as I possibly can to embrace this vision.”
Crosby’s assessment holds merit. The Thunder endured a 22-50 record during the abbreviated 2021 season due to COVID-19, followed by 24-58 in 2022. In 2023, they displayed a remarkable surge in performance, achieving a 40-42 record and participating in the play-in tournament. Over the subsequent two years, they secured the top seed in the Western Conference, boasting records of 57-25 in 2024 and an impressive 68-14 in 2025. The latter season saw them attain the highest point differential in history, culminating in their inaugural title victory in OKC, spearheaded by the league’s MVP (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and a defense renowned as one of the most formidable in recent times.
The Raiders … do not mirror the Thunder’s situation, at least not the Thunder’s trajectory leading up to the 2024-25 season. Oklahoma City had recently celebrated a 57-win season and a second-round playoff appearance, bowing out to the eventual Western Conference champions. They boasted a player who had narrowly missed out on the MVP award (SGA) and two promising teammates with All-Star potential (Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren). Furthermore, they possessed arguably the deepest roster in the league, featuring players such as Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, and others capable of making significant contributions not only during the regular season but also in the playoffs. They had cultivated all this talent while remaining one of the youngest teams in the NBA.
Undoubtedly, it’s unlikely that Crosby was drawing a direct comparison between last season’s Raiders and this season’s Thunder. Such a comparison would be unrealistic. As previously noted, the Raiders posted a mere 4-13 record last season, reminiscent of the 2022 Thunder’s 24-58 showing. Therefore, it’s plausible that Crosby simply aspires for his team to emulate the Thunder’s progress in 2023, where they unexpectedly entered the periphery of the playoff conversation.
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The Thunder commenced that season with an over/under of just 23.5 wins and shared the lowest odds for winning the NBA title. Expectations for their success were minimal. Similarly, the Raiders enter this season with an over/under of just 5.5 wins at FanDuel Sportsbook. Their odds of making the playoffs stand at +310, while their chances of winning the Super Bowl are assessed at +10000, ranking sixth-worst and seventh-worst, respectively, in the league. Few anticipate their success.
The key distinction lies in the Raiders’ lack of a player comparable to SGA. Geno Smith represents a significant upgrade at quarterback compared to the Raiders’ previous options, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder, but his skill level is more aligned with a league-average quarterback rather than an MVP-caliber player. Vegas likely harbors hopes that Ashton Jeanty can emerge as a similar transformative force, but the impact of running backs on NFL success pales in comparison to the influence of superstars in the NBA. Their performance is heavily contingent on the team’s overall context, which, in the Raiders’ case, is admittedly underwhelming.
To even contend within the AFC West, let alone the broader conference, the Raiders will need a stroke of extraordinary luck. They share a division with the Kansas City Chiefs, perennial division champions, as well as the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, both of whom secured playoff berths last season. The Raiders face these teams six times, in addition to four games against the NFC East. They benefit from playing the AFC South, but this offers limited solace for a team that struggled mightily last year and faces a demanding schedule.
While it’s conceivable that the Raiders defy expectations and vie for a wild-card spot, it seems improbable. However, unforeseen events have occurred in the past. Currently, it’s challenging to envision a scenario where they rapidly transform into one of the NFL’s elite teams and Super Bowl contenders. Smith will reach 35 years of age in October and is likely entering the twilight of his career. If the Raiders fail to achieve significant success soon, it’s more likely that they will be embarking on another rebuilding phase rather than celebrating a Lombardi Trophy victory. Given their current predicament, the notion of them winning in the near future appears far-fetched.
