The prevailing expectation for the 2025 season had, for several months, centered on a two-way contest for the title between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, both piloting for McLaren. Nevertheless, the team principal at McLaren has consistently avoided dismissing the prospects of the reigning champion, Max Verstappen.
He reiterated this stance after Verstappen secured a consecutive pole position, maintaining composure amidst the turbulent qualifying session in Baku. Verstappen’s performance allowed him to surpass Carlos Sainz of Williams, while other leading contenders faltered. This included McLaren’s own Oscar Piastri, who encountered an accident at Turn 4, and Lando Norris, who struggled with control at Turn 15 during a challenging final lap, having initially aimed to avoid being caught out by another qualifying interruption.
With Verstappen starting from pole position, Norris in seventh, and Piastri further back in ninth, the odds heavily favor the Dutchman to achieve a second successive victory, an outcome that seemed unlikely not long ago.
Verstappen’s chances appeared slim when Red Bull faced difficulties following a disappointing Hungarian Grand Prix. However, after the Milton Keynes team convincingly outperformed the McLarens in terms of race pace at Monza, it seemed they regained momentum. Red Bull is optimistic that Monza marked a turnaround, aided by a revised engineering strategy and an enhanced floor. Helmut Marko expressed confidence that Verstappen could be competitive on all circuits, particularly those that don’t accentuate McLaren’s strengths in long, medium-speed corners.
McLaren’s analysis following Monza aligns with this view. “The key takeaway from the Monza race, and our subsequent internal reviews, has shaped our approach for the remaining part of the season. We believe Red Bull’s showing at Monza shouldn’t be dismissed as a one-off result of the track or low-downforce configuration,” Stella explained.
“They introduced a new floor at Monza, and they might be adjusting their car settings slightly. We now hear Verstappen mentioning grounding more frequently than before, indicating they might have unlocked additional performance. I wouldn’t be surprised if Red Bull continues their current form. Securing pole position and victory at Monza, and now another pole position here, suggests Red Bull is a serious contender for race wins and the drivers’ championship.”
Motorsport.com questioned Stella about what seemed like a generous, off-the-cuff comment praising the competition. Does Stella, with his engineering background, genuinely believe this?
“Absolutely, YES. Please emphasize that with capitals, because it was expressed in capitals,” he replied jokingly.
Even considering Verstappen’s current deficit at this stage? The gap between the four-time world champion and Piastri is currently 94 points, with only 224 points left to be contested.
“Undoubtedly, yes,” he affirmed. “We mustn’t forget that he is Max Verstappen, the world champion for the past four years, driving a fast car. As I mentioned earlier, there will be races where McLaren might not have a competitive advantage.
“Lando and Oscar are consistently performing well, which means they might not always maximize the available points. At times, Lando might gain slightly more points, and at other times, Oscar might. This could potentially take points away from each other. We are aware of this dynamic, but we allow them to race freely because they both deserve to pursue their goals. Therefore, yes, Verstappen and Red Bull are in contention for the drivers’ championship.”
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Formula 1 via Getty Images
Could it actually happen?
Based on Stella’s comments, overcoming a 94-point deficit in the remaining eight race weekends seems highly improbable, even if Verstappen were to win every remaining race. As Stella notes, Verstappen lacks a teammate capable of taking points away from his competitors, while Piastri and Norris are closely matched.
Even if Verstappen were to win all eight remaining races and the three Saturday sprints in Austin, Brazil, and Qatar, Piastri would need to score less than 131 points for Verstappen to win the title. This means Piastri could finish third on average and still maintain a seven-point lead.
Piastri needs 130 points to tie Verstappen, but in the event of a tie, Verstappen would have more race wins. Norris, who leads Verstappen by 63 points, has even less room for error, which also impacts his battle with Piastri.
At this stage of the season, such a comeback would surpass Vettel’s recovery of 44 points against Alonso in 2010 and Kimi Raikkonen’s overcoming a 20-point deficit against Lewis Hamilton in 2007. Raikkonen’s comeback was particularly impressive as he gained 17 points in the final two weekends alone.
However, in an era of high reliability, exemplified by Norris’s retirement at Zandvoort being McLaren’s first technical DNF in two and a half seasons, Verstappen would need Piastri to experience similar misfortune. Verstappen himself has already dismissed any title aspirations.
A definitive ‘Yes’? Given the current calculations, barring an unexpected series of events, it appears to be a definitive ‘No’.
Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images
