Midseason MLB Awards Update: MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year Races

As the MLB regular season enters its second phase on Friday, with a little over two months remaining before the postseason commences in October, it’s an opportune moment to evaluate the current state of the awards competitions.

Presented here is an updated assessment of the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races in both the American League and National League, highlighting the top three contenders for each accolade as the season progresses into its latter half.

American League MVP

1. Aaron Judge, Yankees
2. Cal Raleigh, Mariners
3. Tarik Skubal, Tigers

Cal Raleigh dominated discussions during the All-Star week. He achieved a resounding victory in the Home Run Derby, supported by his entire family. The primary focus was on his hitting ability, particularly his impressive tally of 38 home runs as a catcher before the break.

And yet, Aaron Judge remains the frontrunner for this award. The Yankees’ captain, a two-time AL MVP winner in the past three years, is currently showcasing his most potent offensive capabilities. Judge is projected to reach 12.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs. Should he accomplish this, it would represent the most impactful season since Barry Bonds in 2002. Excluding Bonds, one must revert to 1927, featuring Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, to find a comparable level of performance.

Nevertheless, there exists a possibility that Raleigh could surpass Judge, an outcome that seemed improbable just a few months prior. He has already delivered an extraordinary offensive season for a catcher while maintaining an elite defensive presence behind the plate. If Raleigh sustains this level of play and Judge experiences a slight decline, the Big Dumper stands a chance of claiming the honor.

Beyond these two, the offensive landscape is varied, leading me to position Skubal at No. 3. A pitcher (excluding Ohtani) hasn’t secured a top-three MVP finish since Clayton Kershaw’s NL victory in 2014. However, Skubal is undeniably the premier pitcher globally, and he may capitalize on Bobby Witt Jr.’s relatively subdued year to secure a finalist position.

Dark horses: Bobby Witt Jr., Jeremy Peña, Byron Buxton, José Ramírez

National League MVP

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs
3. Juan Soto, Mets

Given Ohtani’s current capacity to both pitch and hit effectively, securing his fourth consecutive MVP award will prove challenging for others. While Ohtani’s offensive output has slightly decreased from the previous season, where he achieved a 50/50 milestone and maintained an adjusted OPS 86% above the league average, his current .276 batting average and projected 54 home runs and 20 steals are still impressive. His return to pitching — allowing one run in nine innings across five appearances — is the primary differentiating factor.

Based on the performance demonstrated thus far, Crow-Armstrong merits second place. The youthful and charismatic Cubs center fielder has made a significant impact this season with his exhilarating combination of power and speed. PCA would be a valuable asset even with subpar hitting; such is the quality of his defensive play in center field. However, he has markedly improved his batting this season, with his 25 home runs ranking among the top five in the National League.

In third place, I’ve selected Juan Soto, who did not participate in the All-Star Game, although several other players could have been reasonably considered. Soto’s overall statistics — which contributed to his All-Star Game absence — are still influenced by his atypically slow start. However, these struggles appear to have subsided, as Soto has performed exceptionally well over the past two months. I anticipate that he will maintain this high level of performance.

Dark horses: Will Smith, Kyle Tucker, James Wood, Pete Alonso

AL Cy Young

1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
3. Hunter Brown, Astros

Statistically, the competition is tighter than one might assume, considering Skubal’s ongoing ascent to the pinnacle of pitching. Crochet has logged more innings and strikeouts than Skubal (with one additional start) in the first half, and both pitchers share an identical 2.23 ERA. Skubal holds an advantage over Crochet in walk rate (16 walks compared to 34).

Currently, Skubal holds a slight lead because leading qualified starters in both walk rate and strikeout rate is an exceptional achievement. In many other seasons, Brown could contend for the top spot, but this appears to be a two-horse race. Nevertheless, Jacob deGrom warrants monitoring; his strikeout numbers have progressively increased as he continues his recovery.

Dark horses: Jacob deGrom, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Kris Bubic

NL Cy Young

1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
2. Paul Skenes, Pirates
3. Logan Webb, Giants

Another closely contested battle features a contrast between youth and experience. Wheeler leads in innings per start, WHIP, strikeout rate, and walk rate, while Skenes excels in ERA and home run rate. In a different era, Skenes’ relatively low win total might negatively impact his Cy Young candidacy, but contemporary awards voters are unlikely to penalize him for Pittsburgh’s subpar offensive output.

I anticipate a very close decision between two highly deserving candidates. However, Wheeler receives the edge, fairly or not, due to his status as the best pitcher of his generation who has yet to win a Cy Young, while Skenes should have ample opportunities to secure his in the future.

Dark horses: Robbie Ray, Christopher Sánchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Matthew Boyd

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Jacob Wilson, A’s
2. Nick Kurtz, A’s
3. Carlos Narváez, Red Sox

A showdown between teammates in Yolo County! While the A’s struggle, their offense possesses promising elements for future development. Wilson surprisingly surpassed Bobby Witt Jr. in All-Star fan voting, becoming the first rookie in MLB history to start at shortstop in the Midsummer Classic. He boasts the second-highest batting average in baseball, trailing only Judge, and demonstrates adequate defensive capabilities at a critical infield position.

Kurtz is the sole AL rookie with a higher OPS and more home runs than Wilson. However, the powerful hitter has played 29 fewer games than his teammate, so the disparity between the two could diminish over time.

Dark horses: Roman Anthony, Cam Smith, Noah Cameron, Jasson Domínguez

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Drake Baldwin, Braves
2. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers
3. Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers

Baldwin leads all NL rookie position players in batting average, OPS, and fWAR. Additionally, he has performed as an average defensive player, a notable achievement for a first-year catcher. Baldwin’s primary obstacle is the shared catching duties with Sean Murphy, compounded by the presence of Marcel Ozuna at Atlanta’s DH spot. A Murphy trade before the deadline could significantly enhance Baldwin’s prospects for winning this NL award.

Misiorowski has only made five starts — and was selected for the All-Star Game — but his exceptional performance and apparent potential make him a strong candidate for NL ROY. At his current rate, he will likely accumulate around 18 starts, which could suffice in a relatively weak field if he continues to dominate opposing hitters.

Dark horses: Caleb Durbin, Cade Horton, Augustin Ramírez, Isaac Collins