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David Schoenfield
Multiple Authors
The National League originated a century and a half ago, specifically on February 2, 1876, reportedly in a room filled with cigar smoke at New York’s Grand Central Hotel.
William Hulbert, then a Chicago White Stockings official, convened with delegates from various clubs to establish what became formally known as the National League of Professional Baseball Clubs. This fresh organization didn’t represent the initial professional league, but instead emerged from the National Association of Baseball Players, which had operated between 1871 and 1875. (The predecessor league was a loosely structured group plagued by issues of competitive fairness – notably, the Boston Red Stockings secured the last title with a 71-8 mark, contrasted by the Brooklyn Atlantics’ 2-42 finish – and faced challenges from financially struggling teams in smaller markets; Hulbert sought to implement a superior operational framework.)
By 1901, the American League asserted its rivalry with the NL, elevating its standing from a minor league circuit (previously known as the Western League). The two organizations committed to holding a World Series in 1903, sustaining a fierce rivalry for the subsequent nine decades. The NL’s commanding performance in the All-Star Game from 1963 to 1982, winning 19 out of 20 matchups, was frequently cited by its athletes and supporters as evidence of its excellence. Both leagues maintained distinct leadership, separate officiating crews, and even adopted differing regulations starting in 1973 with the introduction of the designated hitter.
Fast forward 150 years, and with labor disputes on the horizon as the existing collective bargaining agreement concludes on December 1st, there’s a possibility that Major League Baseball might undergo structural changes upon the ratification of a new accord. Commissioner Rob Manfred, notably, has previously put forth ideas for a geographical realignment, a prospect more probable during any future expansion of the sport.
Consequently, as the 2026 season approaches, and with the Los Angeles Dodgers pursuing their third consecutive World Series championship, an interesting inquiry arises: which league currently demonstrates greater strength?
The impetus for this analysis stems from the Dodgers’ achievements. During the period when the New York Yankees claimed four World Series victories within five years, from 1996 to 2000, the remainder of the American League also elevated its performance. The Boston Red Sox notably boosted their spending to rival the Yankees, creating an imperative for other league members to either improve or face obsolescence.
Has the triumph of the Dodgers produced a comparable impact on the National League’s other teams? We shall investigate.
Results of Interleague Play
During a segment of the previous season, it was plausible to contend that the top five clubs resided in the NL: The Dodgers maintained their strong identity, the Philadelphia Phillies were progressing towards another postseason berth, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs unexpectedly held superior records to Los Angeles by July’s close, and the New York Mets had not yet experienced their downturn. Conversely, within the AL, the Detroit Tigers had cooled off following a strong beginning, the Toronto Blue Jays were only beginning to gain momentum, the Yankees performed without distinction, the Seattle Mariners hadn’t surged, and the Houston Astros grappled with numerous player injuries.
Nonetheless, by the conclusion of the 2025 season, the AL prevailed in interleague competition with 367 victories against 353. Excluding the Colorado Rockies, who posted a 12-36 record in such contests, the NL would possess a marginal advantage; however, the poor performance of the Rockies counts against the NL, much as the White Sox’s struggles affected the AL in 2024.
The NL maintained the superior record in both 2023, the year interleague fixtures increased from 300 to 690 (and then to 720 in 2025), and in 2024. This cumulative effect over the three seasons since the expanded interleague format was implemented gives the NL a 1084-1016 lead.
Focusing solely on the six postseason qualifiers from each conference, AL teams in 2025 compiled a 150-138 record in interleague matchups, whereas NL teams achieved a 162-126 mark. The NL’s superiority is considerably more pronounced across the entire three-season span, with NL playoff contenders securing victories in 58.3% of their games compared to 52.6% for their AL counterparts.
Even more indicative, the six National League playoff teams in 2025 demonstrated strong command over the six American League playoff teams in direct competitions, with the San Diego Padres being the sole team to finish with a losing record:
Phillies: 15-6
Brewers: 10-8
Cubs: 10-8
Reds: 12-9
Dodgers: 13-5
Padres: 8-13
Compiling these figures shows the NL achieved a 68-49 record, which translates to a .581 winning percentage, suggesting a 94-win seasonal tempo. The premier National League squads seemingly exhibited heightened intensity when facing their top American League counterparts. Considering all these indicators, the upper echelon of the NL appears to outmatch the AL, possibly reflecting an effort by leading NL clubs to match the Dodgers’ standard.
Major Free Agent Signings
The link between team spending and on-field success has reached an unprecedented level, with four out of the six highest payrolls in 2025 (comprising the six teams exceeding $250 million, according to Cot’s Contracts) being held by National League organizations. This group included the Padres, a team from a smaller market, who ranked sixth.
This trend is evident in free agent expenditures. Examining ESPN’s top 10 free agents from the 2022-23 offseason reveals their signing destinations:
2022-23: Six joined the NL, four joined the AL
The Yankees secured Aaron Judge and acquired Carlos Rodon from the San Francisco Giants, whereas Jacob deGrom moved from the Mets to the Texas Rangers (subsequently pitching sparingly during his initial two years in Texas). The Mets responded to deGrom’s departure by signing Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga, alongside extending Brandon Nimmo’s contract.
2023-24: Nine to the NL, one to the AL
Shohei Ohtani stood out as the most prominent name among a somewhat underwhelming class of free agents, a move that effectively redirected nearly 10 victories from the AL to the NL. The singular instance of an NL player transferring to the AL involved Josh Hader’s move from the Padres to the Astros. The Dodgers also secured Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while the Giants brought in Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, with Chapman changing leagues. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ acquisitions of Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez, both from American League teams, did not yield successful outcomes.
2024-25: Seven signed with NL teams, three with AL teams
Three of those seven signings went to the Mets, including Juan Soto, along with the re-signing of Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea. The Dodgers again sought talent from Japan by acquiring Roki Sasaki, simultaneously securing Snell from the Giants. The three American League acquisitions included Alex Bregman (from the Astros to the Red Sox), Max Fried (from the Atlanta Braves to the Yankees), and Jack Flaherty (from the Dodgers to the Tigers).
2025-26: Five players headed to the AL, four to the NL, one remains uncommitted.
This latest offseason demonstrates a more balanced distribution, featuring four players who changed leagues: Bregman joined the Cubs, Dylan Cease moved to the Blue Jays, Bo Bichette went to the Mets, and Alonso signed with the Baltimore Orioles. Japanese talents Tatsuya Imai (Astros) and Munetaka Murakami (Chicago White Sox) both found new homes with American League clubs. Although the Dodgers and Mets were prominent in securing top free agents over the preceding three years, the nine players who have committed this winter – with Framber Valdez still available – have distributed themselves across nine distinct organizations.
Signing athletes to lucrative contracts is one aspect, but do these agreements explain why the NL might be considered marginally superior at its pinnacle? We will examine the 2025 playoff contenders and all player contracts valued at $100 million or more on their respective rosters.
American League Teams
• Blue Jays (5): Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Andres Gimenez
• Yankees (5): Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon
• Mariners (3): Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, Cal Raleigh
• Red Sox (2): Trevor Story, Alex Bregman
• Cleveland Guardians (1): Jose Ramirez
• Tigers (1): Javier Baez
Overall players: 17. Mean bWAR: 4.0.
National League Teams
• Dodgers (7): Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Tyler Glasnow
• Phillies (6): Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos
• Padres (5): Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove
• Brewers (1): Christian Yelich
• Cubs (1): Dansby Swanson
• Cincinnati Reds (0)
Overall players: 20. Mean bWAR: 3.2.
The conclusion is that major free agent acquisitions do not account for the NL’s advantage at the elite level. The AL garnered greater aggregate value (67.5 WAR) from its $100 million players compared to the NL (63.2), despite the National League having three more athletes with such deals.
This implies that slight differences exist in other domains, notably in expenditures on mid-level free agents. While the Dodgers’ high-profile signings frequently draw criticism, their investments in mid-tier contracts represent risks few other organizations can undertake – for instance, committing $72 million to Tanner Scott, then following up this offseason by investing $69 million in Edwin Diaz after Scott’s difficult 2025 season. Few teams would commit $74 million to Tommy Edman, a valuable player who is not considered a superstar.
The Phillies initially executed a similar strategy with Kyle Schwarber, securing him on a four-year, $79 million agreement in 2022. A majority of clubs were hesitant to make such an investment for a designated hitter, yet it proved highly beneficial for the Phillies (and with his re-signing this offseason, Schwarber has now joined the ranks of $100 million contract recipients).
The Cubs have, for the most part, steered clear of nine-figure contracts recently – their current list includes Bregman joining Dansby Swanson as their two latest – but they have found success in the intermediate free agent market with players such as Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon.
However, investments in these categories of players can sometimes fail. The Mets’ 2025 outlay of $100 million for Manaea, Starling Marte, Frankie Montas, Senga, Jeff McNeil, and Jesse Winker yielded a cumulative 4.1 WAR. The Phillies spent more than $36 million on Taijuan Walker, Max Kepler, and Jordan Romano, who collectively produced negative WAR (and this figure excludes the $20 million paid to Castellanos, whose WAR was -0.8).
Teams Fully Committing to Rival the Dodgers
Within the National League, the Phillies have routinely maintained elevated payrolls, holding the fourth spot in 2025, yet their strategy has largely centered on preserving their existing roster since securing Trea Turner prior to the 2023 season. Their significant acquisitions since then involved re-signing Aaron Nola and Schwarber, in addition to extending Zack Wheeler. Nevertheless, Ranger Suarez departed this offseason for the Red Sox, and the team failed to acquire the crucial offensive talent needed at third base or in the outfield.
The Mets topped major league payrolls in 2022 and 2023, and despite having the second-highest payroll, they reached the NLCS in 2024 but subsequently failed to qualify for the playoffs in 2025. Their approach has lacked a consistent strategy beyond financial expenditure; however, David Stearns, now in his third year overseeing baseball operations, is finally developing a clear direction, moving away from some long-established team figures and adopting a philosophy centered on pitching and defense. The effectiveness of the Alonso/Bichette transaction remains to be seen, and the Freddy Peralta trade, involving two top-100 prospects for a temporary pitcher, unmistakably represents a high-stakes gamble.
The Brewers excel in their operational methods – indeed, they surpassed the Dodgers in total wins last season – but their typical strategy involves exchanging a star player (like Corbin Burnes or Peralta) for future talent, rather than making aggressive, all-in moves. The Cubs, conversely, stand as a clear instance of a large-market franchise that ought to contend financially with the sport’s highest spenders, but has not. The Cubs held the second-highest payroll in 2019, yet ranked 11th in 2025. They acquired Kyle Tucker via trade but did not pursue his return, though the Bregman signing was somewhat unexpected. While their payroll standing will likely improve slightly in 2026, they remain approximately $150 million behind the Dodgers.
Under the leadership of their late owner, Peter Seidler, the Padres undeniably sought to overcome the Dodgers, expanding their payroll beyond their typical market capacity more than any other franchise, concurrently with A.J. Preller depleting the farm system through trades aimed at immediate success. As certain foundational players age and remain bound by costly, long-term agreements, their competitive window might be narrowing.
The Toronto Blue Jays represent the lone American League team making an aggressive commitment, adding a sixth player with a $100 million contract in Cease, while also securing Japanese third baseman Kazuma Okamoto on a four-year, $60 million deal. Despite losing Bichette to the Mets, their projected payroll, according to Roster Resource, has surged from $217 million in 2024 to $258 million in 2025, reaching $282 million for 2026.
Furthermore, the Yankees secured a sixth $100 million player by re-signing Cody Bellinger.
The Red Sox, after two decades of competing fiercely with the Yankees and maintaining substantial payrolls, have reduced their spending in recent years. Boston commenced 2025 with three players earning $100 million or more but divested Rafael Devers in what was primarily a salary relief transaction for a contract with over eight years remaining. Although the Red Sox saw Bregman depart after he exercised his opt-out clause, they will feature three more $100 million players in addition to Story for 2026: Garrett Crochet’s $170 million contract becomes active, Suarez was signed to a five-year, $130 million agreement, and Roman Anthony’s eight-year, $130 million deal also commences. Nevertheless, the Red Sox are maintaining fiscal discipline: their projected 2026 payroll is approximately $17 million lower than in 2025.
Conceivably, the Blue Jays’ financial commitments might compel other American League organizations to become more active. Despite maintaining strict control over its total payroll, Boston’s group of talented and high-salaried young players enabled the signing of Suarez and the acquisition of Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras through trades, maneuvers that could be classified as “all-in.” The Orioles, following a subpar season, have yet to secure their required ace pitcher – perhaps Valdez will fill that role – but they did sign Alonso and traded for Taylor Ward to enhance their offensive capabilities.
Conversely, the Mariners and Tigers, having both reached the playoffs, have made minimal alterations to their squads; the Mariners opted to re-sign Josh Naylor and bring in Rob Refsnyder, while the Tigers secured closer Kenley Jansen and Korean starter Drew Anderson. The Mariners’ current payroll stands at approximately $157 million, roughly $9 million less than the previous season, whereas the Tigers’ payroll increased by about $16 million to $171 million. It is noteworthy that both franchises possess robust farm systems, suggesting a future influx of talent, but neither has evidently pursued the Padres’ strategy of exceeding their market’s financial limits (the Tigers, once among the top five in payroll, are arguably operating below their market’s potential).
Future Outlook
What follows is somewhat concerning. The most opportune moment to defeat the Dodgers likely occurred in 2024 and 2025 – precisely the seasons they claimed World Series victories. Review their win-loss figures and run differentials since 2017:
2017: 104-58, +190 run differential
2018: 92-71, +194
2019: 106-56, +273
2020: 116-46, +367 (prorated)
2021: 106-56, +269
2022: 111-51, +334
2023: 100-62, +207
2024: 98-64, +156
2025: 93-69, +142
The Dodgers triumphed in 2024 even with a starting rotation decimated by injuries. They secured victory in 2025 despite their bullpen largely faltering during the regular campaign. Based on run differential, these represented the two least formidable Dodgers squads since 2016. Above all, this likely serves as the strongest indication of improvement across the rest of the NL: The Dodgers have not overwhelmingly dominated the regular season in the past two years. However, with a more robust rotation expected in 2026, combined with a highly ranked farm system (fourth in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent assessments), it remains to be seen if the Dodgers will revert to their earlier patterns of exceeding +200 run differentials.
For teams to effectively challenge the Dodgers, a strong core of young talent will be essential. According to FanGraphs WAR, the following teams generated the most value from players aged 26 and under in 2025:
1. Brewers: 23.9
2. Red Sox: 20.9
3. Diamondbacks: 18.0
4. Dodgers: 16.4
5. Athletics: 16.0
One would ideally hope the Brewers would pursue a more aggressive, all-in strategy; instead, they sent Peralta to the Mets. The Red Sox appear positioned for sustained achievement with their field players, alongside pitchers Payton Tolle and Connelly Early who are also prepared. The Blue Jays ranked eighth, though a significant portion of that value was derived from Guerrero, Gimenez, and Alejandro Kirk, who will be transitioning into their age-27 seasons. Nevertheless, their aggressive strategy is understandable, given their core players are in their peak performance years, and Trey Yesavage is now joining the pitching rotation following his notable postseason performance. The Tigers warrant observation, possessing a strong group of young players in addition to promising future talents like Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark.
A contributing factor to the AL’s inability to fully rival the NL is the limited production from the Orioles’ highly touted young players, who placed 23rd in terms of youth player value in 2025. Consequently, their win total declined from 101 in 2023 to 75 in 2025. Similarly, the Minnesota Twins, a team heavily dependent on their internally developed talent, ranked a mere 28th and have also seen their performance wane compared to two years prior.
Currently, all teams are pursuing the Dodgers, despite the fact that their perceived margin of superiority might be somewhat overstated, and the National League appears to hold a minor advantage over the American League. The Dodgers, for their part, will be aiming to make history in 2026, as no NL team has previously achieved three consecutive World Series titles.
