MLB Pitcher Updates: Cease’s New Pitches, Cavalli’s Debut

The midpoint of the week has arrived, signaling an opportune moment to delve into the world of prominent starting pitchers. Within this recurring piece, we’ll be scrutinizing a select group of pitchers exhibiting upward trajectories, examining the factors contributing to their success and assessing the viability of investing in their current form.

This analysis will mirror a prior series known as “Mixing It Up” (previously “Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?”), where novel pitch introductions were dissected to ascertain whether they represented significant enhancements warranting alterations in a pitcher’s evaluation. Expanding beyond mere pitch additions, our scope now encompasses velocity enhancements, evolving usage patterns, and role adjustments. However, the fundamental goal remains unchanged: to discern whether recent performance spikes are attributable to substantial, enduring changes that merit investment, or whether they are merely fleeting illusions.

Each week, my objective is to dissect the adjustments made by a minimum of four starting pitchers, providing a definitive viewpoint on whether to pursue their acquisition, propose trades involving them, or fully endorse their potential. I hope this exploration proves beneficial as we proceed.

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Dylan Cease – San Diego Padres (Pitch Mix shakeup, New(ish) Sinker)

The expectation of a superior second half for Dylan Cease compared to his initial performance seemed inevitable. Cease faced a challenging reentry, conceding seven earned runs from nine hits across 9.2 innings during his initial pair of outings. He has since demonstrated recovery, boasting a 3.92 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 34.5% strikeout rate throughout his subsequent quartet of starts. Even amidst his early struggles, emerging modifications were brought to light by Eno Sarris during Cease’s notable showing against the Red Sox on Sunday.

Let’s delve into Eno’s observations by dissecting Cease’s pitch mix statistics from both before and after his July 23rd start.

Dylan Cease Pitch Mix
	Four-Seam	Sinker	Slider	Sweeper	Curve	Change
Last 4 starts	38%	9.80%	32.40%	4.80%	14.40%	0.00%
Before July 23rd	41%	2.40%	46.90%	1.20%	6.70%	1.80%

Indeed, the data reveals noteworthy alterations. Previously, Cease predominantly relied on his four-seam fastball and slider, employing them approximately 88% of the time. Though not strictly a two-pitch hurler, his reliance on these offerings was significant. However, over his recent four starts, the combined usage of his four-seam and slider has decreased to 70.4%, with a further reduction to 63% in his latest appearance. Generally, a diversified arsenal is viewed favorably, prompting us to assess the merit of Cease’s adjustments.

The primary shifts in pitch allocation involve an increased utilization of Cease’s curveball, coupled with a decreased reliance on his slider.

During these four starts, the curveball has emerged as a strategic weapon against left-handed batters. It’s been deployed 21% of the time against lefties, compared to a mere 6% against righties. Prior to this stretch, the curve was utilized 10% of the time against left-handed hitters. Cease employs the pitch early in the count roughly 66% of the time against lefties, achieving a favorable 36.4% called strike rate. Maintaining a low trajectory about 68% of the time, he aims to keep it away from left-handed batters. With a 36% zone rate on the curve to lefties, its effectiveness lies in eliciting called strikes early in the count.

The increased curveball usage has seemingly come at the cost of some slider usage against left-handed batters. In his recent four starts, Cease has been throwing the slider to lefties 26% of the time, a decrease from 42% in his first 26 starts. While the slider previously had a 23% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) against lefties, it also yielded a 50% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR), accompanied by a 23.5% HR/FB rate and a 91 mph average exit velocity. By reducing its usage, Cease has complicated matters for lefties attempting to anticipate his slider, as evidenced by a decrease in ICR to 33% and a reduction in average exit velocity to 82 mph.

Another notable modification is the increased employment of his sinker, particularly against right-handed hitters. Cease has been utilizing the sinker 14% of the time to righties during his recent starts, resulting in a corresponding reduction in his four-seam usage to 30%. Employing an up-and-in strategy against righties, the sinker boasts a 57% high-location rate and a 61% inside-location rate. This approach has yielded an 80% groundball rate over his last four starts, with only two singles conceded.

While the sinker may not be a significant strikeout pitch, it allows him to jam right-handed hitters inside before transitioning to his four-seam fastball up in the zone. The integration of the sinker as an early-count option has enabled Cease to utilize the four-seamer 34% of the time in two-strike counts, up from 27% earlier in the season, resulting in a 3% increase in PutAway Rate, which assesses the frequency with which a two-strike pitch leads to a strikeout.

After conducting further analysis, we view these adjustments favorably for Cease. While he maintains significant swing-and-miss potential, a more comprehensive arsenal has the capacity to diminish the hard contact he concedes while simultaneously enabling his primary pitches to thrive by reducing predictability. We remain confident in Dylan Cease’s potential for a strong second half.

Cristian Javier – Houston Astros (Season Debut)

Following Spencer Arrighetti’s return from the injured list, teammate Cristian Javier made his season debut, delivering an impressive performance against the Red Sox. After conceding a single to Roman Anthony and a subsequent two-run home run to Alex Bregman to initiate the game, Javier rebounded by throwing five shutout innings, allowing only one additional hit. Concluding the day, he conceded two runs on three hits, issuing two walks and recording five strikeouts, while maintaining a 25% whiff rate and a 27% CSW.

Were there any significant observations concealed beneath the surface?

The concise response is affirmative. Javier’s four-seam fastball velocity averaged 93.5 mph, representing his highest average velocity on the pitch since 2022. The pitch exhibited 18.7 inches of Induced Vertical Break (iVB), positioning it among the top echelon of starting pitcher fastballs, lending it the illusion of rising as it nears the plate. Retaining a flat attack angle, Javier effectively maintains it high in the zone 72.4% of the time. As the preceding image illustrates, a fraction of these elevated fastballs veered notably high, landing outside the strike zone. This behavior is foreseeable from a pitcher who has been absent for the entire season following Tommy John surgery. Given the option, a high miss is preferable, as it instills confidence in the intended approach.

Statcast has also classified Javier as having incorporated a “sweeper” this season. This pitch registers at 79.1 mph with 17 inches of horizontal movement, whereas his slider from the previous year clocked in at 78 mph with 17.8 inches of horizontal movement. Both pitches exhibit nearly identical spin rates, intimating a classification anomaly. Nevertheless, the sweeper functions effectively and was his most utilized pitch against right-handed hitters on Monday, accounting for 38.6% of his repertoire. While it occasionally appears against left-handed hitters, its low location rate against lefties stood at a surprising 32%. His command may need fine-tuning following his extended layoff. The sweeper also had a 39% low location rate to righties, doing a good job of keeping the pitch away, resulting in a 16% SwStr%. However, one such pitch was left over the plate to Bregman, resulting in a home run.

Lastly, Javier incorporated a sinker, throwing it 27% of the time to right-handed hitters, second only to his four-seam fastball (34%). While not individually remarkable, its integration is noteworthy. Previously, Javier relied heavily on his four-seam fastball and sweeper against right-handed hitters, needing a third pitch to diversify his arsenal. By effectively utilizing the sinker inside against righties, he can strategically set up his four-seam fastball up in the zone, or his sweepers away. Precision in command remains paramount as the season progresses.

Overall, Javier’s debut against a formidable offense was commendable. He demonstrated the potential that defined him as a starting pitcher in 2022 and showcased a more diverse pitch selection. Having thrown 85 pitches in his season debut, it’s a positive sign that the Astros intend to integrate him fully. Therefore, adding him in all leagues is advisable. It may necessitate one or two more starts for his command to fully stabilize, although the upside associated with his talent warrants taking the chance.

Cade Cavalli – Washington Nationals (Season Debut)

The path to recovery has been extensive for Cade Cavalli. Selected as the Nationals’ first-round pick in 2020, Cavalli was ranked as the 39th-best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline entering the 2022 season, surpassing Jackson Jobe, Eury Perez, and Nick Lodolo, among others. Following a 3.71 ERA and a 104/39 K/BB ratio in 97 innings at Triple-A, Cavalli debuted in MLB during the 2022 season.

Cavalli underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2023, followed by a setback in early 2024 characterized by a “dead arm” phase. He also experienced fatigue early in the season during his rehab assignment, leading to a protracted recovery process. Despite this, Cavalli retains his “prospect” status and is currently ranked as the 10th-best prospect in Washington’s system. His first two MLB starts this season suggest untapped potential, prompting a closer examination.

As evidenced by the Pitcher List game log from Cavalli’s start on Monday, the right-hander’s primary offering is his fastball, a 97.6 mph pitch characterized by average extension (6.5 feet) and slightly above-average iVB. While the pitch’s shape is fairly standard, its velocity is impressive. Cavalli has maintained a 63% zone rate on the four-seamer across two starts, demonstrating the ability to locate it in the strike zone and gain early count advantages.

Nevertheless, Cavalli has located 42% of his four-seam fastballs in the middle of the zone (neither up nor down). While not ideal, this may be expected from a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery and a fatigue-related setback, leading to inconsistent command. Cavalli has effectively kept his four-seamer away from righties, yielding a solid 14.7% SwStr% on the pitch against them. While the shape of his fastball is not optimal, his four-seam fastball success can likely be attributed to his sinker, thrown 23% of the time to righties with an 86% inside-location rate. While Cavalli’s sinker command against righties may not be precise, his ability to run it inside effectively backs them off the plate, allowing the four-seamer to be more effective when located on the outside part of the zone.

Cavalli also utilizes his curve 32% of the time against righties, as it is his most reliable offering. Clocking in at 85.6 mph, it exhibits 16 inches of vertical break and seven inches of horizontal movement. This is a substantial amount of vertical movement for a pitch traveling at 86 mph. Effectively keeping it low in the zone, he keeps it away from righties 68% of the time, complementing his strategy of jamming them inside with sinkers before using the four-seam and curve away. Remaining consistent, he keeps his curve low against lefties, focusing on locating it middle and inside. The curve has registered a good SwStr% against both righties and lefties, and has been a more successful two-strike pitch to lefties.

To right-handed hitters, Cavalli showcases a solid approach with his four-seamer and sinker, while a curve serves as his primary secondary. He’ll also mix in a 94.5 mph cutter that has just 1.2 inches of horizontal movement. He also has a changeup that he uses nearly 27% of the time to lefties and likes to locate away.

The changeup is 89.4 mph, so it’s a bit of a power change, with nearly 18 inches of arm-side run. He rarely uses it to righties and has done a good job of locating it in the zone against lefties, but, much like his four-seam fastball, far too many of the changeups have been over the heart of the plate early on. It’s missing plenty of bats, with a 28.6% SwStr% to lefties, but has also given up a lot of hard contact.

Through two starts, Cavalli’s performance has been promising. His four-seam, sinker, and curve combination against righties should provide sufficient depth to generate strikeouts and prevent hitters from making solid contact, just as his four-seam, curve, and changeup pairings do for lefties. Integrating the cutter more frequently against lefties would be beneficial. However, his primary hurdle will be command. While command refinement may not fully materialize this season, his raw talent positions him as a potential target for me in 2026 drafts.

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Dustin May – Boston Red Sox (Cutter Usage)

I must admit to being quite pessimistic about Dustin May as a fantasy option for the remainder of 2025. His relocation to Boston has not necessarily altered that sentiment. However, holding a rotation spot and making discernible adjustments to his arsenal, he warrants a thorough discussion.

Over his two starts in Boston, May has permitted three runs on 11 hits in 9.2 innings, accumulating 12 strikeouts, a 33% CSW, and a 12.6% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). Examining his pitch selection from his commanding start against the Astros on Tuesday, we can identify notable changes in his usage patterns since joining Boston.

The initial observation is the Red Sox have curtailed the usage of May’s sinker. Despite the visually impressive nature of the pitch, it has not been a success for May. On the season, his sinker has a league-average zone rate, a league-average strike rate, and yields more hard contact than a typical sinker. Overall, it has a subpar 4.7% SwStr%, and a 47% ICR. In short, this is not great.

Across his two starts in Boston, May has used his sinker a mere 18.6% of the time, allocating 29% of his sinkers to right-handed hitters and 8% to left-handed hitters. Before the trade, he used the sinker 36% of the time with a 43% usage to righties and a 31.6% usage to lefties. He’s using the pitch 78% of the time early in the count to righties and getting it inside 48% of the time, which is more of an early-count usage than he had with the Dodgers. Yet, a lot of his usage is middle-middle. He has 11% of his sinkers that are over the heart of the plate 48% register as being not in the upper third or lower third of the strike zone. This is likely why the pitch yielded an average exit velocity of 100 mph in his start against the Royals.

Coupled with the overall reduction in sinker usage, May has elevated his four-seam usage to righties to 16% from 10.2% and increased his four-seam usage to lefties from 19.4% to 35%. Against lefties, he’s now throwing it up in the strike zone 87% of the time, while keeping it away 71% of the time. That’s a 22% increase in high location and a 17% inside in outside location from when he was with the Dodgers. It’s been primarily a two-strike pitch for him with a 45% usage in two-strike counts, and while that hasn’t led to many strikeouts yet, I do like that approach. He has just a 35% zone rate and 48% strike rate on the four-seamer to lefties since coming to Boston, so he may need to locate the pitch better, but I think using it up and in two-strike counts should work for him.

In conjunction with these adjustments, May has markedly amplified his cutter usage, throwing it 24.6% of the time with a pretty equal usage to righties and lefties. When he was with the Dodgers, he threw the cutter just 7% of the time and pretty much only used it to lefties.

Against righties, he keeps the cutter away 48% of the time, but will throw it all over the strike zone from a vertical standpoint. He also uses it 70% of the time early in counts and tries to get ahead with a 65% zone rate. So far, the pitch has a 35% called strike rate to righties in his two starts with the Red Sox and a 13% SwStr%, so he’s doing a good job of using it to get ahead and also to pair with his sweeper (more on that below). To lefties, he keeps the pitch inside 64% of the time but primarily uses it belt-high and lower. That sets it up as more of a two-strike offering, and he uses it 37% of the time in two-strike counts, with a 13.6% SwStr% and a 77% zone rate.

Thus, while the cutter’s effectiveness may not be apparent, he can command it effectively, employing it early in the count against righties with a sinker-cutter strategy. Alternatively, the cutter is used inside on lefties to elicit swings and misses off his four-seamer. This is also good because he can cut down on his sweeper usage to lefties.

The cutter usage to righties makes some sense because he’s been using his sweeper 70% of the time away from righties and 38% of the time in two-strike counts. The sweeper is 85.3 mph with 17.6 inches of horizontal break and 40.1 inches of vertical break, when accounting for gravity, while the cutter is 91.7 mph with one inch of horizontal movement and 26 inches of vertical break with gravity. Since they come out of his hand at a similar angle and he uses them to attack similar parts of the strike zone, they can play well off of one another. It’s part of the reason the sweeper has an 18.2% PutAway Rate and 14% SwStr% against righties with Boston. The pitch had just an 11.9% SwStr% with the Dodgers when he was trying to bury it low in the zone more often.

These modifications remain a work in progress for May, and he still doesn’t have a pitch that looks like it will truly dominate. However, that might be just another reason why it’s great to see him take an approach that uses four pitches almost equally. Despite his velocity and ridiculous movement, he has never missed bats consistently, so he needs to refine an approach that sets his pitches up for success by playing them off of one another. I’m not sure the Red Sox have suddenly “fixed” Dustin May, but I do like the direction he’s heading in.

Ryan Bergert – Kansas City Royals (Sweeper Usage, Four-Seam Fastball Location)

Presently, Bergert’s position within the Royals’ rotation may be uncertain, but his performance warrants a spot. Boasting a 2.87 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 23% strikeout rate over 47 innings across both the Padres and the Royals, the 25-year-old has elevated his game this season. As Eric Longenhagen noted in his mid-season prospect update on FanGraphs, “[Bergert] and the Padres have made successful changes to his delivery and pitch mix that have his fastball playing better in 2025 than ever before. Berget’s arm slot has been raised, and he’s added a tick of velo, now sitting 94 with more pure vertical movement because of his new release point.”

Let’s begin with the fastball. Bergert’s fastball averages 93.5 mph and features an exceptional 18 inches of Induced Vertical Break (iVB), defined as vertical movement resulting from the baseball’s backspin. The average MLB iVB for starting pitchers is 14.8 inches, highlighting Bergert’s ability to generate significantly more backspin, resulting in a “rising” effect as the pitch approaches home plate.

A fastball with Bergert’s characteristics is most effective when located high in the zone. Since arriving in Kansas City, he has used his four-seamer up in the zone 70% of the time. Prior to that, he located the four-seamer up in the zone only 46% of the time with the Padres. This is a massive increase. Bergert has posted a 7.4% SwStr% on the four-seamer with the Royals, but keeping the pitch up in the zone is ideal for its shape, allowing him to register just a 28.6% ICR and a 31.5% CSW. Yes, it’s a limited sample, but that’s better than the 39% ICR and 25% CSW he had on the pitch with the Padres, so considering we believe this is the proper path forward for Bergert’s four-seamer, we can be excited by these results in two starts.

Longenhagen also highlighted additional alterations in Bergert’s repertoire: “Bergert has added a second breaking ball, a slower, low-80s sweeper that functions like a strike-stealing curveball against lefties and occasionally gives righties a chase breaking ball with a different shape to worry about.”

The sweeper that Longenhagen is discussing is an 83 mph pitch with 15 inches of horizontal movement, which is a lot of movement for a pitcher who also gets that much backspin on a fastball. Using the wrist motion needed to get backspin on the four-seam fastball runs counter to the spin needed to get that much sweep on a slider, so the pairing is not as common as we’d think. But the sweeper is a nice pitch for Bergert because it differs enough from his 87 mph slider, which has just 4.6 inches of horizontal movement and four inches less vertical drop.