Optimal MLB Postseason Qualification Predictions Following All-Star Festivities
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Milwaukee Brewers (-330, DraftKings) to Secure Playoff Berth
Calculated Probability: 76.7%
Projected Likelihood: 89.1%
Our forecasting model expresses significant confidence in the Brewers’ chances. Milwaukee currently holds a 4.5-game advantage in the playoff race, and despite the relatively high -330 odds, we still perceive value in this wager. Brandon Woodruff has recently returned from an injury and appears to be performing at his previous level, despite an extended absence of nearly two seasons. Rookie Jacob Misiorowski is consistently throwing pitches at 103 mph, and Nestor Cortes is expected to rejoin the team soon, further bolstering their pitching depth.
While the Brewers’ schedule is marginally more challenging in the remaining games compared to their initial 96 games, we anticipate them concluding the season with a 91-71 record, which should be more than sufficient to guarantee a playoff appearance.
Seattle Mariners (-188, FanDuel to Secure Playoff Berth)
Calculated Probability: 65.3%
Projected Likelihood: 83.2%
Given their formidable pitching rotation, the Mariners are strongly favored to make the playoffs, but they need to demonstrate greater consistency moving forward. They achieved a series sweep against the Tigers, who possess the league’s best record, in their most recent road series, but were previously swept by the Yankees. Cal Raleigh has been performing exceptionally well, leading MLB in home runs, Randy Arozarena’s performance has improved lately, and Julio Rodriguez typically performs better in the latter part of the season. The Mariners also possess a robust farm system that they can leverage to acquire additional talent at the trade deadline.
Cal Raleigh will require support from his Mariners teammates if they aim to advance deep into the postseason. Seattle’s projected record is slightly better than their current 51-45 record, suggesting that they are currently underperforming but still hold a 1.5-game lead for the final wild card spot.
Boston Red Sox (-115, DraftKings) to Secure Playoff Berth
Calculated Probability: 53.5%
Projected Likelihood: 66.9%
The -115 odds offered by DraftKings present an appealing opportunity, as most other sportsbooks have set the line at -140. The Red Sox are currently on a hot streak, entering the All-Star break with a 10-game winning streak. Similar to the Mariners, the Red Sox have significant talent within their farm system, even after promoting Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony, and they possess ample trade assets to acquire a quality pitcher to complement Garrett Crochet.
Boston has been actively pursuing talent over the past year, acquiring both Crochet and Alex Bregman. It is probable that they will trade at least one of their promising young prospects to avoid positional congestion in the future. Capitalize on their recent strong performance, which positions them as potential buyers at the trade deadline.
St Louis Cardinals (-280, DraftKings) to Fail to Secure Playoff Berth
Calculated Probability: 73.7%
Projected Likelihood: 84.2%
The Cardinals are likely to be sellers at the trade deadline, so we advise securing this price while it still represents a reasonable bet. Caesars currently lists the Cardinals at -335 to miss the playoffs. According to our model, the Cardinals face the second most challenging schedule in baseball for the remainder of the season.
The Cardinals’ average opponent to date has a 49.1% winning percentage, while their remaining opponents have a 53.1% winning percentage. The Cardinals have exceeded initial expectations, but now is the opportune moment to capitalize on their perceived value.
Minnesota (-350, DraftKings) to Fail to Secure Playoff Berth
Calculated Probability: 77.8%
Projected Likelihood: 88.1%
This is another situation where it’s advantageous to take advantage of the current odds before they become less favorable. FanDuel currently lists the Twins at -480 to miss the playoffs. Despite having the easiest schedule so far, the Twins are two games below .500 and are expected to be sellers at the trade deadline.
The Twins’ season has been significantly impacted by injuries, and the most prudent course of action would be to trade available assets and focus on building for the future.
