With numerous NBA squads reaching their 28th contest of the season on Thursday evening, we have formally arrived at the one-third juncture of this campaign. Following the league’s Cup championship crowning on Tuesday, this presents an opportune moment to evaluate the MVP discussion, which boasts a historically rich array of elite talent.
The championship landscape is gaining clarity, with the reigning Oklahoma City Thunder (24-2) maintaining their position as dominant favorites. They are trailed by several Western Conference teams, including the Denver Nuggets (19-6), San Antonio Spurs (18-7), Los Angeles Lakers (18-7), and Houston Rockets (16-7), all striving to believe they can win a best-of-seven series against a team that has only suffered two losses throughout the season.
(Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
Within the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons (21-5) and New York Knicks (18-7) are the sole teams to have established themselves as championship contenders, and the dialogue surrounding the MVP trophy mirrors the top positions in the standings across both conferences.
It is also worth noting that Giannis Antetokounmpo, currently recuperating from a calf ailment, is slated to miss his 11th game of the season this Thursday. A player is ineligible for the award if they miss more than 17 games. (Victor Wembanyama has also been sidelined for a period, though he has since rejoined play.)
Let’s begin.
Commendable mentions: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks; Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics; Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors; Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves; Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers; Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets.
6. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
As the premier performer for the Eastern Conference’s leading team, Cunningham rightfully belongs in this discussion. The Pistons’ unexpected top seed, especially given the high expectations for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, is largely attributable to Cunningham’s influence. His play is directly responsible for their offensive flow; he consistently ranks high in drives, aggressively maneuvering to his preferred spots where he can either execute a jump shot over smaller defenders, find Jalen Duren for a roll to the rim, or distribute the ball to an open shooter. He possesses multiple strategies for outmaneuvering opponents.
A minor point of contention, however, is that Cunningham exhibited slightly better field goal efficiency last season, when he was ranked seventh in the MVP discussion. His current three-point shooting stands at 32.7% on 6.4 attempts per game, a decrease from his personal best of 35.6% achieved last season. Even at his peak, his shooting from beyond the arc hovers around the league average. This aspect represents the final element in a basketball skillset that is nearly as comprehensive as any other player’s in the league.
5. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
It is becoming increasingly difficult to find novel ways to praise Wembanyama, an exceptionally athletic 7-foot-4 individual capable of performing feats on the basketball court that are simply beyond the reach of others. He can score both from close range and from a distance, towering over all opponents, yet it is his defensive prowess that truly distinguishes him. His incredible 8-foot wingspan effectively casts a shadow over the opposing team’s offense.
With Wembanyama on the court, the Spurs surrender 104.3 points per 100 possessions, a figure that, if maintained over an entire season, would place them second only to the Western Conference-leading Thunder’s defense. Conversely, when he is off the floor, San Antonio allows 117.1 points per 100 possessions, which aligns with a bottom-10 defensive ranking. In essence, incorporating Wembanyama into the game transforms the team into an elite defensive unit.
On the offensive end, while the inverse isn’t precisely true, San Antonio’s scoring performance has been stronger in Wembanyama’s absence. He can sometimes disrupt offensive rhythm through isolation plays, as he continues to explore the full extent of his abilities. And indeed, his capabilities are vast. These are developmental phases that we anticipate Wembanyama will navigate successfully over time. His progress this season will be a key determinant of how close the Spurs get to serious contention.
4. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
From an offensive standpoint, Dončić’s contributions are unparalleled; he leads the league in average points (34.7), field-goal attempts (23.1), three-point attempts (10.7), and free-throw attempts (12.3). He undertakes a significant workload, and while his efficiency could improve (his 32.4% success rate from three-point range is on track to be his lowest since his second season), very few players possess Dončić’s skill in reaching their preferred scoring locations and converting from them effectively.
His defensive game, however, remains a weakness. When Dončić shares the court with Austin Reaves and LeBron James—an offensive triumvirate unmatched by any other team—the Lakers permit 117.9 points per 100 possessions, which is equivalent to the league’s 25th-worst defensive rating. This represents a critical vulnerability that Los Angeles, in its current configuration, cannot overcome. No amount of offensive brilliance from Dončić can compensate for this significant defensive shortcoming.
3. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Brunson holds the distinction of being the NBA Cup MVP for the champions of the in-season tournament, and candidly, who else can claim such a significant achievement during the initial third of the season? The Knicks’ early objective was to establish themselves as genuine championship contenders, a goal unequivocally solidified by their performance in the NBA Cup (a 3-1 record in group play and a 3-0 sweep in elimination rounds).
Brunson is the orchestrator of New York’s offensive schemes. The Knicks perform as the league’s top offensive unit when he is playing, scoring 126 points per 100 possessions, but resemble a bottom-five offense when he is on the bench (111.1 points per 100 possessions). Employing exceptional footwork, he maneuvers to any desired spot on the court and, typically, despite his 6-2 stature, can generate an unobstructed shot for himself or a teammate from there.
Defensively, Brunson’s capabilities are limited. The Knicks boast an elite defense when Brunson is off the court, yet a mediocre one when he is in the game. This presents a delicate equilibrium. His success in managing this balance—and how effectively he and Karl-Anthony Towns defend in pick-and-roll situations—will ultimately determine New York’s chances at a title.
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Jokić is once again recording *another* 30-point triple-double average, a truly astounding feat. He leads the entire league in both rebounds and assists, while also ranking fifth in scoring. His previous season, where he finished as the MVP runner-up, was arguably the most statistically remarkable in league history, and he has surpassed even that performance this year, achieving shooting percentages of 67.6% on two-point attempts and 43.3% on three-pointers. His output and efficiency are without precedent.
These exceptional performances are also translating into victories, with the Nuggets accumulating more wins than any other Western Conference team besides the Thunder. After pushing Oklahoma City to a seven-game series in the conference semifinals last May, Denver appears poised to be the primary challenger to the favorites this season. Furthermore, for the first time in Jokić’s career, the Nuggets are marginally outscoring their opponents when the three-time MVP is off the court, which is a clear indication of their improved roster depth.
The statistics showing team performance with and without Jokić on the court have historically been a compelling argument for his MVP candidacy. While the Nuggets remain dominant whenever he is playing, they are now also competent when he rests on the bench. This newfound stability without him could inadvertently diminish his individual case in the intensely competitive MVP discussion.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
I did not necessarily concur with Gilgeous-Alexander’s selection as MVP last season, considering, as I previously stated, that Jokić delivered what was arguably the most statistically profound season in basketball history. Nevertheless, SGA rightfully earned the distinction, and subsequently validated it in the playoffs, securing Finals MVP honors en route to a championship.
Consequently, someone must surpass his current standing to claim the award, and no one has managed to do so yet. Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder boast a 24-2 record, a pace that could potentially break the NBA’s regular-season wins record (73). They commenced the year with an eight-game winning streak, suffered a two-point defeat to the Portland Trail Blazers, then embarked on another 16-game winning streak before a two-point loss to Wembanyama’s Spurs in the Cup semifinals. Remarkably, they squandered 15-point leads in both of their two losses.
The outcome is an astounding +16.4 net rating, which would establish the league’s highest-ever net rating by a considerable margin. Gilgeous-Alexander is consistently averaging 32 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists, performing with such unwavering reliability that it appears almost predetermined. They have achieved this largely without Jalen Williams and have not played a single game this season with a complete rotation. They are overwhelmingly the best team in the league, and he is unequivocally their standout player, making it exceedingly difficult to argue against Gilgeous-Alexander as the league’s most valuable player.
