The NBA’s offseason is well underway, and the subsequent weeks promise a lull filled with speculative buzz as we anticipate the return of on-court action. Player acquisitions are largely finalized. The anticipated blockbuster deals (such as a potential change of scenery for Durant) and some unexpected maneuvers (Lillard’s contractual termination and a return to the Trail Blazers) have come to fruition. The player selection event has concluded. Coaching positions have been secured. Certain developments are still pending, notably concerning the Warriors, which we’ll address shortly. Nevertheless, we’re generally in a position to begin assessing the victors and the underperformers of the offseason. However, for several franchises, the evaluation isn’t straightforward. So, before we dive into what I consider the clear triumphs and disappointments, here are six teams occupying a middle ground, with arguments to be made for either perspective. Teams in the Ambiguous ZoneBoston Celtics: Consider that they’re poised to commence the upcoming season without four of their primary contributors from the 2024 title-contending squad (Tatum is recovering from an Achilles injury, Holiday and Porziņģis were involved in trades, and Horford is likely departing), not to mention the departure of Kornet. Conversely, the Celtics have reduced their financial obligations by over $300 million in tax and salary commitments for the current season alone, and a roster overhaul was anticipated even before Tatum’s injury. Perhaps a transitional year isn’t such a setback given their sustained deep playoff runs over the recent years. Minnesota Timberwolves: The consensus might be that allocating $225 million to Randle and Reid seems excessive, and the exit of Alexander-Walker is undoubtedly a setback. But ultimately, the Wolves have structured their finances to retain the core of a team that has consistently reached the conference finals. If Randle underperforms his playoff showings and Reid doesn’t surpass his current role, it’s a loss. But until that unfolds, the Wolves have navigated the situation adequately. Cleveland Cavaliers: Acquiring Ball in exchange for Okoro is advantageous for two reasons. Firstly, Ball is a more versatile player on both ends of the court and embodies the sought-after 3-and-D small forward archetype if he can avoid injuries. Secondly, his contract isn’t guaranteed beyond this year, whereas Okoro has a guaranteed $11 million salary for both this year and the next. However, if Ball, who is likely to miss consecutive games and will have limited playing time, can’t maintain his health (a possibility), the assessment shifts. In that scenario, the Cavs’ offseason activity amounts to adding Nance Jr. (acceptable) while losing Jerome (not ideal). The outcome remains to be seen. Portland Trail Blazers: It’s challenging to criticize any team that secures Holiday, a player with championship pedigree, but committing $100 million over three years to a 35-year-old nearing the end of his career, with the aim of securing a play-in spot, is a substantial gamble. Nonetheless, there’s a point at which a team must aim for contention, and Holiday remains a valuable asset who can mentor Henderson and Sharpe. The return of Lillard is a heartwarming narrative, but his performance is declining, and he won’t participate this season. The Blazers might have made shrewd decisions this offseason. Alternatively, they might have overestimated their proximity to contention. Brooklyn Nets: Speculation suggested that the Nets would trade some of their five 2025 draft picks, but they retained and utilized them all, didn’t significantly leverage their cap space, and traded Johnson for Porter Jr., who is owed nearly $80 million over the next two years. Their highlight of the summer was securing Denver’s 2032 unprotected first-round pick. Some might view this as an offseason triumph based on this asset alone. Personally, I’m neutral on the Nets’ moves until I observe the potential of their draft picks and assess the Nuggets’ performance seven years from now. Golden State Warriors: We’re awaiting the resolution of Kuminga’s situation. If he accepts the qualifying offer and the Warriors can’t trade him, potentially losing him next summer without compensation, it’s a setback. Securing him on a two-year deal with a team option for the second year would be a different outcome. Once resolved, the Warriors are expected to pursue Horford and Melton. Both would be significant additions. We must await the final outcome to determine whether Golden State’s offseason was a success or failure. With these considerations in mind, let’s delve into the teams that can be definitively categorized as offseason winners and losers.
The Rockets bolstered their own roster while diminishing a rival (the Lakers) by acquiring Finney-Smith on a four-year, $53 million arrangement. A significant triumph. Finney-Smith enhances any squad, notably the Rockets, reinforcing their identity with additions to an elite defense and an offensive scheme spearheaded by Durant.
Houston also onboarded Capela on a three-year, $21 million pact, furnishing superior center depth in support of Sengun and Adams. These three centers offer diverse skill sets: Capela, the rim-running protector; Adams, the rebounding force; and Sengun, the scoring All-Star. This equips them with versatile lineup options, incorporating two-big, one-big, and even no-big lineups with Durant, Finney-Smith, Smith Jr. (re-signed on a five-year, $122 million contract), Eason, and Thompson. In essence, the Rockets substituted Green with Durant and Brooks with Finney-Smith, subsequently adding Capela. Already the West’s second-ranked team, they’ve improved considerably. The Rockets are poised for advancement.
Los Angeles LakersThe Lakers focused on three primary objectives this offseason: securing Dončić to an extension, acquiring a starting center, and preserving future financial flexibility. They achieved all three. While not all were unequivocal successes, retaining Dončić is a major achievement for a franchise that could have faced turmoil had he declined the extension. Dončić’s extension adds three years and $165 million to his contract, committing him to the Lakers through at least 2027-28. They’ll now seek a second star, but have provided Dončić with the center he needs in Ayton to be competitive this season.
Dončić’s commitment signals the initiation of the pursuit for a compatible teammate
Quinn
Ayton’s significance in free-agent discussions reflects the limited options available rather than his inherent value. Yet, he represents an improvement over Hayes.
Ayton excelled as a pick-and-roll partner in Phoenix with Paul as his facilitator, and the Lakers anticipate Dončić can guide him to similar finishing opportunities. While not as vertically dynamic as Lively III, who complemented Dončić in Dallas, Ayton is a double-double threat who can score from soft rolls, capitalize on mismatches, and function effectively as a short-roll passer, crucial against Dončić’s double teams. Regarding Smart, his perceived value currently exceeds his actual on-court impact. While past his peak, Smart remains a capable defender who might emulate Rondo’s late-career resurgence with the Lakers. While he’ll attempt ill-advised shots, he’ll also make significant ones. This assumes he remains healthy, after playing only 34 games last season. Finally, replacing Finney-Smith with LaRavia provides the Lakers with roughly $45 million in cap space next summer (contingent on LeBron’s departure). Whether worthwhile acquisitions are available remains to be seen, but the flexibility exists, along with two trade-eligible first-round picks.
They also have around $40 million in expiring contracts in Kleber, Hachimura, and Vincent, all potential trade assets. Securing players who contribute in the present and near future while avoiding long-term financial commitments would allow them to pursue max-level free agents in 2027. In the short term, the Lakers’ improvements might not suffice for genuine contention this year. Conversely, Ayton’s success and the synergy between LeBron and Luka could elevate their performance. Overall, it’s a promising setup with considerable flexibility as the post-LeBron era approaches. The Lakers’ approach of not fully prioritizing this year with LeBron on the roster is debatable, but they’ve prioritized 2026 and 2027. Viewed through this lens, they achieved their objectives.
The Spurs benefited from both luck and strategic drafting, securing Harper with the No. 2 pick and Bryant later on. Kornet could be a valuable addition as a backup for Wemby, providing two-big lineup configurations, as does Olynyk with his floor-spacing capability. The Spurs also extended Fox on a four-year deal potentially worth $229 million. While a significant investment, Fox is a valuable player and a key component of the Spurs’ promising future. While one of Fox, Harper, or Castle might be traded by 2028, the team can compete for playoff contention, allowing Wembanyama to develop through meaningful experience rather than on a lottery-bound team. An outstanding offseason for the Spurs.
Milwaukee BucksDesperate measures and misguided decisions define the Bucks’ waiving of Lillard and spreading his $113 million contract over five years to accommodate Turner’s $107 million contract. While Turner was highly rated in free agency, the market was thin, and cost and context are important. Turner would be a great addition to the Lakers at a reasonable price. Remaining with Indiana while awaiting Haliburton’s return is also advantageous. But the Bucks’ sacrifice of financial resources and roster flexibility for this move is questionable. While the Bucks are striving to retain Antetokounmpo, does this move truly satisfy him? Turner is a marginal upgrade over Lopez. Is it worth paying Lillard $22.5 million annually for five years to play elsewhere? In an era of financial constraints, this move is crippling.
Regardless of perspective, it’s unfavorable. The Bucks had limited options after trading for Holiday and Lillard. Their efforts to surround Giannis with a competitive roster have become increasingly desperate, culminating in this misguided decision with long-term consequences, potentially leading to Giannis’ departure.
Bridges’ $150 million, four-year contract reflects continuity in New York and preserves chemistry and defensive versatility. The Knicks hired Brown, a successful coach who can diversify New York’s offensive schemes.
Brown has a history of success. He has been an assistant on championship teams, led the 2007 Cavs to the Finals, and guided the Sacramento Kings to a playoff berth after 16 years. If Brown does nothing else, reducing New York’s dependance on Brunson and utilizing his bench will be significant improvements. New York secured Clarkson and Yabusele, valuable additions to their second unit. Clarkson is a proven scorer who can relieve Brunson and pose a greater threat than Payne. Yabusele started 43 games for the Sixers, averaging 11 points and 5.6 rebounds. He’s a strong defender who can complement Robinson and create a formidable defensive unit. His shooting ability also enhances New York’s attack when replacing Hart.
In a competitive Eastern Conference, the Knicks strengthened their bench and acquired a coach who will utilize it, following their recent Finals appearance. This is positive progress.
The Mavericks unexpectedly secured the No. 1 pick after facing low odds in the lottery. This stroke of luck overshadows other offseason developments. After losing Dončić due to mismanagement, acquiring Flagg is fortuitous. Russell can fill point guard duties until Irving’s return. If healthy, the Mavericks could be formidable upon Irving’s return.
New Orleans PelicansBefore the selection event, the Pelicans, under the guidance of Dumars and Weaver, traded McCollum and Olynyk to the Wizards for Poole, Bey, and the 40th pick. While not disastrous, Poole is similar to McCollum, and Bey (recovering from an ACL injury) might provide 3-and-D support for Zion. However, McCollum and Olynyk’s contracts expire after this season, while Poole and Bey are under contract for over $40 million in 2026-27. The Wizards sought to offload Poole at their earliest opportunity. While he performed statistically well last season, he’s less impactful than McCollum, and the Pelicans are now committed to him for an additional year. The Pelicans should be reducing their financial obligations, not adding to them with players who generate stats on underperforming teams. The Pelicans aren’t the Warriors and won’t transform Poole into a championship-caliber player. It was a perplexing decision. Their draft-night trade, sending their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to the Hawks for Queen, was even more puzzling. Queen is a talented big man, but trading up for him, even if he doesn’t perfectly complement Williamson, was costly. The pick sent to Atlanta is the superior pick between New Orleans and Milwaukee. Given New Orleans’ struggles last season and the Bucks’ vulnerability to injury or trade requests, the Pelicans should have protected the pick. A top-five protection would have been reasonable and allowed them to retain a valuable asset in a potentially strong draft class if either team falters. While Queen might become a superstar, it’s a risky gamble for a player with uncertain draft projections.
The Clippers excelled this offseason. Losing Powell is a setback, but his expected raise next year aligns with the Clippers’ focus on financial flexibility in 2027 when Harden and Leonard’s contracts expire. In the meantime, they enhanced an already strong team that faced Jokić in the playoffs. The Clippers replaced Powell with Beal, acquired from the Suns. Beal’s former $50 million salary in Phoenix was excessive. However, at $5.3 million, Beal becomes one of the league’s most valuable players, joining Lopez and Paul for a total of $18 million. While past their prime, these additions are significant at that combined price. Lopez is particularly valuable, giving the Clippers the league’s best backup center and avoiding small lineups when Zubac is off the court. His 3-point shooting also allows for two-center lineups. Collins, after being overlooked with the Jazz, averaged nearly 20 points and eight rebounds last season. With Harden, Collins will have his best pick-and-roll partner since Young, and he won’t be burdened with primary scoring responsibilities. Collins and Lopez provide the Clippers with enviable frontcourt depth.Paul, who played all 82 games for the Spurs last season and ranked among the top assist leaders, is a helpful player at $3.6 million, even as a potential third-string option. The Clippers had a successful offseason without long-term commitments, preserving their financial outlook.
Phoenix SunsOptimists might argue that the Suns became younger and acquired quality big men, with Brooks adding defensive presence. Green might emerge as a long-term backcourt partner alongside Booker. However, the Suns lost Durant and are paying Beal $100 million over five years to play for the Clippers. The Bucks at least secured Turner in exchange for buying out Lillard. The Suns burdened their finances with Beal’s contract to save on tax expenses. Then, they extended Booker for two years at $145 million, starting in 2028, when he’ll earn over $70 million annually. Booker, a top-20 player, has been selected for two All-NBA teams, with one selection occurring due to injury-related absences by other players. His statistical rankings last season were lower. He’s entering his age-29 season, and will be 32 when the extension takes effect. The Suns have no realistic path to contention. Paying Booker above his market value in a detrimental situation is questionable. If the Suns were competitive, the contract would be more justifiable. However, they’re not, and Booker is essentially being overpaid on a struggling team. In reality, Booker is the Suns’ sole asset for a rebuild they refuse to acknowledge. They should consider trading him. However, his contract might hinder trade prospects if they eventually seek to rebuild, potentially paying Booker and Beal nearly $100 million annually in 2028 while fighting for a play-in spot.
The Hawks had a productive offseason. They acquired Porziņģis, providing Young with a stretch center to enhance spacing. They also traded with the Pelicans on draft night, moving down from the 13th pick to No. 23 and selecting Newell.They also acquired the Pelicans’ unprotected 2026 first-rounder, which could be valuable due to the Bucks’ potential decline. Additionally, they executed a sign-and-trade for Alexander-Walker, coveted for his perimeter defense and 3-point shooting. Adding Kennard, a 43% 3-point shooter, provides floor spacing alongside Young and Porziņģis. The Hawks have strategically built their roster to support Young, adding perimeter defenders to mitigate his defensive limitations. With Daniels, Risacher, Alexander-Walker, and Johnson, Atlanta can effectively defend around Young, and these players are also capable secondary playmakers. Atlanta aims to emulate the Pacers’ recent success in the Eastern Conference. This is a promising team, and they’re likely not finished, as they’ve remained under the tax line and retain access to a Traded Player Exception from the Murray deal. The Hawks are in a strong position.
Indiana PacersKey additions: HuffKey losses: TurnerThe initial setback for the Pacers was Haliburton’s Achilles injury in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. He might not regain his previous form, and the Pacers might not have another championship opportunity. The Pacers were poised to compete in Game 7, with Haliburton starting strongly. Instead, OKC won the title, and Indiana entered the offseason with Haliburton injured and Turner departing in a surprising move. While it might benefit the Pacers in the long term, transitioning from a halftime lead in Game 7 to losing Haliburton and Turner is a blow. They acquired Huff.
Jackson Jr.’s five-year, $240 million extension was significant for Memphis. Securing Jackson was a key objective, avoiding his potential free agency. A significant win. Retaining Aldama, a target for other teams, was another success. The Grizzlies also added Jerome, a strong backup point guard, acquiring him from the Cavs. Jerome will contribute significantly, spelling Morant and potentially playing in crucial moments.Losing Bane is a setback, but Caldwell-Pope is a reasonable replacement, and the Grizzlies gained four first-round picks in that deal, providing future depth or trade assets. The Grizzlies’ offseason moves are commendable.
Additions: Bane, JonesLosses: Caldwell-Pope, AnthonyThe Magic were justified in paying a premium for Bane, an offensive asset they needed. He’s a tough player who can score and create in various ways. Orlando needed to enhance their scoring to compete in the Eastern Conference. While Bane isn’t a point guard, Jones will provide stability in that role, likely coming off the bench. Suggs will return to the starting lineup, and Orlando’s defense should remain strong, now complemented by an improved offense.
The Nuggets successfully offloaded Porter Jr.’s contract, sending him to the Nets along with their 2032 first-round pick for Johnson, who is a valuable addition in the Jokić ecosystem. They also re-signed Brown on a veteran minimum deal. Brown’s departure marked the start of Denver’s bench clearing after their 2023 championship. While he hasn’t been consistently impactful recently, his familiarity with Denver’s system as a cutter, creator, and defender is valuable.Johnson is a dream for any team. He’s an exceptional shooter who will thrive alongside Jokić.In Johnson and Hardaway Jr. you get two shooters for the price of Porter, and Denver added Valančiūnas to help plug the years-long hole that has been the non-Jokić minutes. Denver is a top-tier contender.
I had big hopes for the Pistons, who were reportedly in play for Alexander-Walker and/or Aldama. They didn’t get either of those guys and had to settle for LeVert, who’s pretty good with a modernized shot diet but not the kind of impact that NAW would’ve had. Robinson’s shooting helps to fill the void left by Beasley, whose career is in the balance amid a gambling investigation. But strictly basketball speaking, Robinson is not Beasley, who made 319 3-pointers last season, second only to Edwards’ 320. Ivey coming back is basically an addition to last year’s team, replacing Schröder’s loss at least, but again that’s just a swap. Detroit had a chance to make a real move this offseason, like Orlando, for instance, and instead just sort of treaded water.
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