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Kevin Pelton
Considering my stats-driven forecasts accurately gauge team strength, what might the forthcoming NBA season entail?
Generally, the advance simulation of an NBA season aims to ascertain the likelihood of different outcomes, spanning from weaker teams’ potential draft lottery victories to top contenders securing the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Moreover, exploring distinct simulation iterations offers a glimpse into improbable scenarios that chance might manifest.
Mirroring ESPN’s NFL convention of chronicling events from a singular simulation, we’ll delve into the NBA season through simulation No. 620 — chosen for its compelling results — from its commencement to the NBA Finals’ conclusion.
Note that this isn’t my (or ESPN’s) forecast for the season’s trajectory. The results stem randomly from simulation, while other facets, notably player statistics, involve imaginative liberties.
We’ll also observe the crowning of an NBA Cup victor, partake in the holiday spectacles on Christmas Day, settle the playoff seedings, stage the draft lottery, conduct the play-in tournament and playoffs, and ultimately, identify the 2025-26 NBA champion. Let’s commence.
Oct. 21: Thunder, Warriors Dominate Season Tip-Off
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers
Following the acquisition of their championship rings and the inaugural banner-raising at Paycom Arena, the Thunder showcased their favored status by securing a noteworthy triumph during Kevin Durant’s debut for Houston. While Durant amassed 27 points facing his former squad, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams surpassed 20 points, with Chet Holmgren adding five blocks.
Subsequently, the Warriors dampened Luka Doncic’s initial home game donning Lakers’ colors, edging them 107-99. Draymond Green, in high spirits, asserted that the Warriors, and not Oklahoma City, merited consideration as the front-runners for the title.
Dec. 16: Unforeseen opponents meet at NBA Cup Title Bout
Quarterfinals:
(1) Boston Celtics vs (4) Detroit Pistons
(2) Miami Heat vs (3) Cleveland Cavaliers
(4) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (1) Oklahoma City Thunder
(3) Portland Trail Blazers vs (2) Memphis Grizzlies
Semifinals:
(1) Boston Celtics vs (2) Miami Heat
(3) Portland Trail Blazers vs (4) Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA Cup final (Dec. 16):
(1) Boston Celtics vs (3) Portland Trail Blazers
The NBA Cup, which took place from Oct. 21 to Dec. 16, culminated in an unexpected final round in Las Vegas, showcasing the Celtics opposing their former guard Jrue Holiday and the Trail Blazers. Boston, maintaining a 16-10 start amid Jayson Tatum’s absence from injury, concluded as the top seed in the East play-in, triumphing over the Pistons at home and the Heat in the semifinals situated in Las Vegas.
The emergent Blazers, sharing a similar 16-10 standing, exploited the Timberwolves’ quarterfinal home upset of the Thunder. Portland also secured a road victory in Memphis, followed by a defeat of Minnesota in the semifinals.
However, the Blazers’ march concluded with a 115-103 defeat. While Portland struggled with a 10-of-36 3-point rate, Boston witnessed four successful shots each from Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, immediately curtailing discourse about recognizing the NBA Cup as “Banner 19.” Nevertheless, the Celtics equaled the Lakers’ NBA Cup title.
Dec. 25: Mishaps for Knicks and Lakers on Christmas
Teams experiencing setbacks headlined the narrative on Christmas Day. The Cavaliers and Knicks, anticipated to shine as East contenders at the season’s onset, ranked eleventh and seventh, respectively, leading up to their contest at Madison Square Garden. The Cavaliers, hampered by backcourt injuries early on, found solace in a triumph over the Knicks.
Conversely, the Lakers encountered no such respite, sinking five games below the .500 threshold post a home defeat to Houston.
In contrast, the outlook seemed brighter for the two leading teams in the West, particularly the surprising Warriors and Thunder, each securing home victories. Likewise, the Denver Nuggets flourished, spearheaded by Nikola Jokic’s 30-point triple-double.
Feb 15: All-Star break dominated by buzz around Warriors
As the NBA converged from Feb. 13-15 at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, the Warriors became the league’s prime subject of discussion. Green and Jimmy Butler III accompanied Steph Curry on the West roster, fueled by Golden State’s league-leading 42-13 record at the break.
Trailing the seasoned Warriors, there existed a notable wave of youth, with the Thunder trailing by 4.5 games in the West and the thriving Magic at the East’s summit, exhibiting the NBA’s second-finest record. Following their sluggish initial performances, the Knicks and Cavaliers had recalibrated, climbing to second and fourth spots in their conference.
While the Clippers shared fourth place in the West, their local adversaries faced persistent challenges. Languishing 12 games below .500, the Lakers were almost ruled out of the play-in race, trailing the Sacramento Kings by six games for the tenth position. LeBron James contemplated taking March off to observe his son Bryce competing for the Arizona Wildcats in the NCAA tournament.
Beware the Ides of April…
With roughly a fortnight remaining in the regular season, numerous factors hung in the balance, notably the top seed in the West. The Thunder had narrowed the gap to within 2.5 games of the consistently dominant Warriors. The battle to avoid participation in the play-in was fierce, involving three teams locked at 40 wins each, albeit with the Blazers trailing Houston and Minnesota in the loss column by two games.
Trailing by two losses for securing play-in entry, the Mavericks still eyed contention with Kyrie Irving’s anticipated return to the lineup. Over in the East, the Celtics — experiencing a slump of 19-30 since their NBA Cup conquest — sought to fend off the Philadelphia 76ers and the underachieving Detroit Pistons in order to reach the play-in.
April 12: Magic, Warriors Capture Top Regular-Season Spots
The Warriors quashed any speculation about a potential Thunder rally by concluding the season with a 10-game winning streak, totaling 63 wins, their highest count since 2016-17. In the East, the Magic established dominance, concluding seven games ahead of the Knicks.
A tiebreaker determined the No. 6 seed in both conferences. Cleveland, experiencing a post-All-Star break downturn, entered the play-in, while the Milwaukee Bucks clinched the No. 6 seed.
Meanwhile, Houston prevailed in a tie out West, propelling the Timberwolves into the play-in after nearly evading it the preceding year. Unyielding, Anthony Edwards avowed that Minnesota would regain its place in the conference finals, regardless.
Play-in tournament
Eastern Conference
No. 7 Cleveland Cavaliers vs No. 8 Miami Heat (Cleveland secures a playoff berth to compete against No. 2 Knicks)
No. 9 Chicago Bulls vs No. 10 Boston Celtics (Chicago proceeds; Boston is eliminated)
No. 9 Bulls vs No. 8 Heat (Chicago secures a playoff berth to compete against No. 1 Orlando; Miami is eliminated)
Western Conference
No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers vs No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves (Portland secures a playoff berth to compete against No. 2 Thunder)
No. 10 Sacramento Kings vs No. 9 Phoenix Suns (Sacramento proceeds; Phoenix is eliminated)
No. 10 Kings vs No. 7 Timberwolves (Sacramento secures a playoff berth to compete against No. 1 Warriors; Minnesota is eliminated)
Consider the Chicago Bulls as the biggest victors of the play-in tournament; it’s familiar territory for them. Chicago not only triumphed in Miami to secure the No. 8 seed in the East playoffs, but also earned a first-round pick when Portland capped off its unanticipated season with a win at the Target Center, earning the seventh spot in the West.
Things took a turn for the worse for the Timberwolves in the play-in tournament’s final match, as the Sacramento Kings dealt them a surprise 103-101 defeat, sealed by a DeMar DeRozan pull-up jumper in the final five seconds. Sacramento players commemorated the moment by donning “Kings of the Play-in” T-shirts, much to the dismay of the Bulls.
In Cleveland, the drama was less intense, as the Cavaliers salvaged the No. 7 seed with a 31-point triumph over Miami, reminiscent of last year’s dominant first-round sweep.
Draft lottery
1. Utah Jazz (from Minnesota Timberwolves)
2. Atlanta Hawks (from New Orleans Pelicans)
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Washington Wizards
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Utah Jazz)
6. Charlotte Hornets
7. Detroit Pistons
8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Los Angeles Lakers
10. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Philadelphia 76ers)
11. San Antonio Spurs
12. Boston Celtics
13. Memphis Grizzlies (from Phoenix Suns)
14. Miami Heat
For the second year running, a team ousted on the cusp of the playoffs secured the NBA draft lottery win. However, unlike the Mavericks in 2024, the Timberwolves couldn’t revel in the triumph. A trade agreement stemming from the Rudy Gobert deal dispatched the top pick to the Utah Jazz, who attempted to conceal their intent on drafting AJ Dybantsa from nearby BYU.
For Minnesota, the news wasn’t entirely bleak, as they only fell to the No. 5 spot. Similarly, despite an opportunity to surge to No. 2, the 34-48 Pelicans didn’t benefit, as the pick transferred to the Hawks, fulfilling their agreement from the 2025 draft night. The Nets and Wizards claimed the next two picks, enjoying the highest odds due to their combined 25 wins.
Later, the playoff-bound Thunder and Grizzlies obtained lottery picks through trades; the Grizzlies were afforded the opportunity to swap for the Suns’ pick through the Desmond Bane deal.
Speaking to reporters before Game 1 of the NBA Finals, commissioner Adam Silver acknowledged that the league’s competition committee will revisit lottery odds to avoid teams preferring the lottery to advancing through the play-in tournament.
Playoffs
Eastern Conference Round 1
(1) Orlando Magic vs (8) Chicago Bulls, 4-1
(2) New York Knicks vs (7) Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-2
(3) Atlanta Hawks vs (6) Milwaukee Bucks, 4-1
(5) Toronto Raptors vs (4) Indiana Pacers, 4-3
Western Conference Round 1
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (8) Sacramento Kings, 4-1
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (7) Portland Trail Blazers, 4-0
(6) Houston Rockets vs (3) Denver Nuggets, 4-3
(5) LA Clippers vs (4) Memphis Grizzlies, 4-2
The most anticipated first-round series — an expected showdown between the Knicks and Cavaliers in the conference finals — lost its spark. Cleveland, worn down from a challenging regular season and play-in showing, was eliminated at home in Game 6. Elsewhere, though, drama ensued.
Two road teams with less postseason experience won their Game 7s. The Toronto Raptors held former star Pascal Siakam to 15 points on 4-of-16 shooting for their first series win since 2020, and the Rockets shocked the Nuggets in Denver thanks to 12 fourth-quarter points from Durant. Houston hadn’t advanced in the playoffs since 2019.
The Clippers were the other lower seed to advance, beating Memphis, which ESPN BET listed as the underdog before the series. After winning Game 1 on the road, the Clippers closed out the Grizzlies at home in six games.
Eastern Conference semifinals
(1) Orlando Magic vs (5) Toronto Raptors, 4-2
(2) New York Knicks vs (3) Atlanta Hawks, 4-1
Western Conference semifinals
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (5) LA Clippers, 4-2
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (6) Houston Rockets, 4-3
The top two seeds in both conferences advanced in Round 2. For a second consecutive year, the Thunder needed seven games to reach the conference finals, but the Rockets pushed the defending champs without injured point guard Fred VanVleet. “We’ll be back,” Durant said in a somber Houston locker room.
The Warriors beat the Clippers in a battle of the NBA’s two oldest rosters, and the Magic and Knicks reminded everyone that they’ve been the class of the East all season. Both dropped just three total games en route to a showdown in the conference semifinals.
Conference finals
(1) Orlando Magic vs (2) New York Knicks, 4-1
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (2) Oklahoma City Thunder, 4-2
The Magic cruised to their first trip to the NBA Finals since 2009, surprising New York at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 to take a 3-0 series lead before completing the gentleman’s sweep.
Meanwhile, in a battle of the NBA’s last dynasty against a team aspiring to become one, the Warriors lived up to Green’s season-long hype. The teams split the first two games of the series before Golden State won the pivotal Game 5 and then closed out Oklahoma City on the road to host the NBA Finals.
And the NBA champion is…
