The 2026 Formula 1 season’s rules have mostly aligned with predictions, as Mercedes has emerged as the leading competitor, with Ferrari and McLaren trailing just behind. The Silver Arrows team has secured victory in every race starting from pole position, and Kimi Antonelli currently holds the first spot in the drivers’ championship ahead of George Russell after the initial three events. Furthermore, Mercedes maintains a 45-point advantage over Ferrari, who are in second place in the constructors’ championship.
Multiple elements have played a part in their achievements, yet the primary factor appears to be their power unit. This engine is believed to offer a minimum of 15bhp more than Ferrari’s equivalent, and the German manufacturer has shown superior capability in recovering electrical energy under the revised, more electrically-focused regulations, which enables Antonelli and Russell to shave off lap time during turns.
Even though McLaren uses Mercedes power units, the main factory team has managed to extract greater performance from the engine, thanks to their deeper inherent understanding of its design. Additionally, the defending champions are hampered by their MCL40 car being heavier than desired, a stark contrast to the W17.
However, the season is still in its nascent stages, and despite Mercedes’ considerable lead – reflected in an average qualifying margin of 0.497 seconds – many within the F1 community anticipate a subtle shift in the pecking order by the time of the Miami Grand Prix next month.
This expectation stems from the implementation of the Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities, or ADUO.
ADUO represents Formula 1’s recently introduced system for engine equalization, which permits power units performing between 2% and 4% below the standard benchmark, as determined by the FIA’s performance criteria, to introduce a single targeted upgrade. Engines falling more than 4% short receive additional allowances. Initially, the assessment milestones were established for distinct quarters of the 2026 season: namely, the sixth, twelfth, and eighteenth races.
Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Lars Baron / LAT Images via Getty Images
The Miami event was initially planned as the sixth round, but its timing has been advanced following the cancellation of the Saudi Arabian and Bahrain Grand Prix races. Therefore, the precise date for the inaugural assessment point remains uncertain – potentially Miami or Monaco in June – yet, irrespectively, modifications are on the horizon, and Antonelli foresees a convergence of competitive performance, typical of most regulatory periods.
“Significant alterations are on the horizon,” stated the current championship leader, who recently triumphed in the preceding two races held in China and Japan, to Sky Sports. “For instance, the ADUO provision extended to Ferrari, enabling them to enhance their engine, will undeniably bring them significantly nearer to us, given that their vehicle already possesses considerable strength.
“Should they succeed in upgrading their power unit, their deficit will diminish further. Nevertheless, I remain largely unconcerned. Ultimately, once I begin racing, my concentration will be on replicating my efforts from previous grand prix weekends: aiming for maximum speed, concentrating solely on my performance, and adhering to my assigned tasks.
“Moreover, I am confident that we will introduce some crucial enhancements. Our car is already robust, and a positive momentum exists within the squad. Consequently, I am not overly anxious, but I acknowledge that the rival teams will eventually narrow the performance difference.”
This explains why Toto Wolff, the Mercedes team principal, is refraining from becoming overly optimistic about his team’s initial performance and from drawing parallels to the period between 2014 and 2021 when the Silver Arrows clinched an unprecedented eight consecutive championships. This caution is especially warranted given how swiftly circumstances can shift, as evidenced by the previous regulatory period.
Red Bull convincingly dominated to secure the 2022 and 2023 championships, yet subsequently, McLaren surpassed their development efforts, concluding the ground-effect era as the clear frontrunners, with the Austrian team also finishing below Mercedes in the 2025 rankings.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Artur Widak / NurPhoto via Getty Images
“Perhaps we might have preferred if it (ADUO) had extended through the two Middle Eastern events, allowing us to accumulate additional points,” Wolff remarked humorously in Japan.
“Individuals now possess greater understanding, the racing teams have gained insights, and drivers are progressively mastering how to maximize these systems for their advantage, with the initial evidence of this observed today.”
During the race in Japan, Oscar Piastri of McLaren seemed poised for victory following an excellent initial phase, only for Antonelli to benefit from a fortuitous pitstop during a safety car period on lap 23, thereby taking over the lead.
“What appeared to be an undeniable triumph for us in the initial two races is not the reality, and we have consistently issued warnings,” Wolff further stated. “For me, Miami will signify a fresh beginning. The effectiveness of the enhancements introduced by various teams, and how thoroughly we have fine-tuned all our other systems, will undoubtedly make it an intriguing spectacle.
“We must remain grounded; we are only three races into the season, and currently, we appear as champions. Yet, in another three races, public opinion might shift, with people remarking, ‘no more champions, as the other competitors have improved their performance’.”
“Therefore, I would hesitate to equate our current beginnings with our previous period of success, but we have never ceased to believe that we would ultimately develop a competitive vehicle and establish the necessary frameworks to achieve that with suitable drivers, and witnessing this finally materialize is gratifying.”
Further contributions provided by Filip Cleeren
