NFL Divisional Round: Questions & Overreactions

The National Football League’s divisional playoff stage commenced with a thrilling contest in Denver on Saturday. The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos battled into an extra period, where the Broncos secured victory with a 23-yard field goal. However, this triumph had a drawback: quarterback Bo Nix sustained an ankle injury. The subsequent matchup saw a less competitive outcome, with the Seattle Seahawks dominating the San Francisco 49ers later that Saturday.

Sunday’s action kicked off with the New England Patriots claiming a snow-covered victory against the Houston Texans, largely due to New England capitalizing on four C.J. Stroud turnovers. A final game remains scheduled, featuring the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears for Sunday evening.

What key insights can be drawn from each contest in the divisional round, and what does the future hold for these franchises? We engaged ESPN’s national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to provide an assessment of every second-round game and offer forward-looking perspectives. In relation to each divisional game, Solak addresses a pivotal unanswered query, while Graziano evaluates the credibility of a common speculative conclusion.

We now delve into an analysis of Stroud’s showing, the strength of the Patriots’ defensive unit, the impressive talent on the Seahawks’ squad, the injury-plagued state of the 49ers’ lineup, updates regarding Nix’s injury, and the Buffalo Bills’ ongoing struggles in the postseason. Our commentary will also evolve as more games unfold throughout the remainder of the weekend.

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‘Houston should delay any contract extension for C.J. Stroud for at least one more season.’ Is this an exaggerated concern?

No, this is a sensible observation. Stroud managed to improve his play during the second half of Sunday’s game, particularly given the absence of star wide receiver Nico Collins, an injury to starting tight end Dalton Schultz, and a complete lack of a ground attack for the Texans. Nevertheless, his first-half performance was disastrous, featuring four interceptions that dug a deficit too deep for even his team’s formidable defense to overcome. This showing followed just six days after Stroud lost the ball five times and committed three turnovers in a wild-card triumph against the Steelers, a game that remained unexpectedly close in its final period.

The Texans, entering this season with an impressive 10-game winning streak and a defensive unit rivaling the best east of Seattle, were presented with an exceptional chance. A victory would have propelled them into their inaugural AFC Championship Game next Sunday, facing an ailing Broncos squad without its primary quarterback. Sunday’s contest was marred by rain, snow, and general disarray, where the Patriots themselves grappled with numerous turnovers, making them vulnerable to a team exhibiting superior ball security. However, the Texans failed to be that team, and despite any justifiable explanations for Stroud, his play was dreadful. A compelling argument can be made that his performance was the decisive factor in Houston’s defeat.

Having been selected as the second overall pick in the 2023 draft, Stroud has now become eligible for his initial contract extension. To clarify: I haven’t encountered any information suggesting the Texans intend to do anything other than finalize an extension for Stroud expeditiously. This outcome is highly probable. Yet, can we be entirely confident that it’s the right course of action?

Stroud’s debut year was quite impressive. Furthermore, he has guided the Texans to the divisional playoff stage in all three of his seasons to date. The team holds the conviction that they possess a genuine foundational quarterback. However, following a rookie campaign where he delivered 26 touchdown throws and merely five interceptions (including playoff games), his subsequent two seasons have seen him accumulate a total of 42 touchdowns and 26 interceptions (including playoff games). Houston adjusted its offensive coordinator after Stroud’s second year, during which he was sacked 52 times, and he did demonstrate progress this current season. Despite this, he didn’t quite reach the benchmark set by his rookie performance, and this season will largely be defined by his struggles in the playoffs.

I am not asserting that Stroud lacks ability. He is merely 24 years old. His initial season might have established an excessively high bar for him to meet in his sophomore and third years. Moreover, he possesses the potential to rebound from Sunday’s performance and forge a career worthy of the Hall of Fame. My point is simply that there’s no urgency in this matter. Stroud’s current contract extends through 2026, and the Texans hold an easily exercisable team option for 2027. They could, in theory, apply the franchise tag to him in both 2028 and 2029 if circumstances required it. Why not afford him another year to observe how he recuperates from this and what enhancements he implements to regain his rookie-year form?

Clubs frequently hasten into such agreements (looking at you, Dolphins!) only to later experience remorse. I simply fail to grasp the imperative to expedite a Stroud extension, especially after the events of Sunday (and the previous Monday) and with Houston retaining at least four additional years of contractual control. — Graziano

The unresolved inquiry: Is our assessment of this Patriots defensive unit accurate, considering its two commanding playoff displays?

Examining the statistics: When facing the Texans, the Patriots’ defense limited opponents to 3.3 yards per snap and forced five turnovers. Stroud faced pressure on 36% of his passing attempts, converting only 2 of 14 such plays. Houston’s running backs managed just 31 yards on 18 carries, which followed the Chargers’ backs gaining 30 yards on 12 carries in the previous wild-card contest. Across both playoff matchups, the Patriots have conceded only one touchdown, stemming from a 27-yard drive initiated by a Drake Maye turnover.

The defensive unit for the Patriots has shown renewed vigor throughout the postseason, primarily due to the return of several players from injury: Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga, Robert Spillane, and Harold Landry III all missed portions of the late regular season, and their run defense has particularly gained from the restored health within the front seven. However, it is also true that the Patriots have encountered two offensive lines that were notably subpar, especially when considering playoff-caliber teams. The interior blocking for the Chargers posed problems all year, and the Texans’ offensive line had only just managed to achieve adequate performance in the latter half of the season before being severely impacted by injuries in their game against the Patriots.

I am convinced that the Patriots’ defensive squad is robust and has gained from improved player health, yet I am equally confident that they have faced a notably weaker lineup of opposing offensive lines, which has enabled them to easily control game conditions. The true capability of the Patriots’ defense lies somewhere between these two points, though its precise location is difficult to ascertain. This distinction holds little significance for the upcoming week, as the Patriots are set to encounter a significantly stronger offensive line belonging to the Broncos… however, New England will also face a substitute quarterback in Jarrett Stidham, due to Bo Nix’s injury. The Patriots’ defense is poised to hold a considerable edge in that specific game, purely on the basis of quarterback quality.

However, as the Patriots potentially embark on a Super Bowl contention, a significant hurdle awaits: determining the exact caliber of this defense when measured against the offenses it has encountered. This applies equally to their regular season performance. For several weeks, there has been considerable discussion regarding the Patriots’ undemanding schedule. Once more, I am convinced this is a capable unit. But to what extent? Is it proficient enough to overcome the Seahawks if their own offense falters against Seattle’s formidable defense? Is it adequate to contain the potent offensive schemes of the Bears or Rams? Even as Week 20 concludes, this remains a unit whose true prowess I feel I haven’t fully grasped, thereby complicating any precise assessment of this Patriots team’s dominance. — Solak

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‘The Seattle Seahawks executed the most successful offseason among all teams.’ Is this a disproportionate claim?

No, this assertion is well-founded. The Seahawks initiated the 2025 offseason with the firm intention and expectation of securing Geno Smith with a contract extension. Upon realizing Smith’s disinterest in renewing his agreement at their proposed terms, they sent him to the Raiders in a trade and subsequently acquired Sam Darnold. Regardless of one’s opinions on Darnold, the Seattle Seahawks of 2025 achieved a 14-3 record—identical to Darnold’s 2024 Minnesota Vikings—and he is now slated to play a home game on January 25th in the NFC Championship Game.

Seahawks General Manager John Schneider approached the offseason period as if he had successfully secured his primary quarterback target. He brought in DeMarcus Lawrence. He also acquired Cooper Kupp, deeming him a superior blocker at this stage compared to Tyler Lockett. Additionally, he selected Nick Emmanwori in the second round. Schneider evidently has a strong affinity for the second round of the draft. Even as an advocate for players maximizing their earnings and wishing elite quarterbacks would more aggressively raise the salary ceiling for their peers, I must commend Seattle’s strategic mindset: “Is it truly imperative for us to compensate our quarterback over $50 million annually if he has yet to conclusively prove himself as a top-tier performer?”

Following the team’s thrilling Week 16 win against the Rams, a Seahawks staff member remarked to me, “Our goal here is to secure championships,” a commitment Seattle clearly embodies. The team has only incurred three losses throughout the entire season, with defeat margins of four, three, and two points. Two of these setbacks were against divisional opponents, one of whom they ousted on Saturday. Is Darnold a reincarnation of Joe Montana? No. John Elway? No. Patrick Mahomes? No. However, the Seahawks, at some juncture, resolved to demonstrate how a championship can be attained without allocating exorbitant quarterback salaries to a competent but not elite signal-caller, by constructing a championship-ready supporting roster.

Credit is due to the Seahawks for managing the quarterback aspect of their offseason with the same strategic rigor applied to all other elements. While they did not acquire their preferred player, they were confident in their ability to succeed with their chosen quarterback due to their proficiency in other areas. The appointment of Mike Macdonald as head coach occurred in the previous offseason, not the current one, yet it significantly influenced their strategy for the present offseason. And despite all, they remain a formidable presence. — Graziano

The persistent question: With a fully healthy squad, are the 49ers poised to be the NFC frontrunners next season?

Naturally, it is premature to determine. However, let’s project into the future. The Seattle Seahawks are expected to hold the favorite status, assuming no devastating injuries occur between now and then. The Los Angeles Rams could also contend at the top, particularly if they conclude their NFC playoff run impressively… but Matthew Stafford’s sustained career health will perpetually remain a concern, negatively impacting their prospects in futures betting. In contrast, the San Francisco 49ers retain most of their key personnel under existing contracts.

Trent Williams’ agreement is nearing its end, and the offensive line demonstrably requires enhancements throughout. The wide receiver position appears somewhat lacking, given the ambiguous status of Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings’ impending free agency. Nevertheless, their youthful defensive unit, severely impacted by injuries this season, will see the return of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. Furthermore, Yetur Gross-Matos and Jordan Elliott represent the sole expiring contracts within that group. This cohort is expected to gain from playoff exposure next season and will presumably bolster their pass-rushing capabilities.

Naturally, the 49ers must ascertain if they can navigate the offseason without the departure of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, whose contributions were instrumental to their unexpected triumphs amidst numerous injuries. Saleh has already conducted interviews with the Titans and Ravens, and he is, deservedly, a highly sought-after candidate in the head coaching market. Should he accept a position, San Francisco would find itself once again searching for a new defensive coordinator.

Furthermore, it bears mentioning that the 49ers, who benefited from a remarkably lenient schedule this season, are slated to face a third-place schedule in the upcoming season, notwithstanding their playoff qualification. With only minor adjustments during the offseason and a return to average injury fortunes, the Niners are expected to once again be viewed as a formidable contender within the NFC playoffs. — Solak

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‘Without Bo Nix, the Broncos’ season is effectively over.’ Is this an exaggerated concern?

No, this is a reasonable assessment. The Broncos secured a narrow victory in Saturday’s contest. The Buffalo Bills committed five turnovers, one of which occurred in overtime, which was crucial; otherwise, Nix might not have sustained his ankle injury. Furthermore, without Nix’s critical performances in the fourth quarter and overtime, Denver would not have triumphed and progressed to host an AFC Championship Game.

But what about now? Am I expected to believe the Broncos will defeat Houston or New England with Jarrett Stidham leading the offense? And even if they manage that, does anyone genuinely think they can then claim the Super Bowl title? With all due respect, Jarrett, this Broncos team simply doesn’t strike me as capable enough to replicate the 2017 Eagles’ feat of winning the championship without their primary signal-caller.

Indeed, the Broncos possess a competent defense; this is a known fact. However, their performance on Saturday wasn’t outstanding against a Bills squad that effectively moved the ball despite committing turnovers, and they haven’t demonstrated the elite defensive prowess seen from teams like Seattle and Houston—at least not during the latter half of this season. While the Broncos’ ground game is stronger than many perceive, let’s be realistic. We all witnessed the game. The Bills gifted Denver 10 points right before halftime, followed by another three at the beginning of the second half, yet Buffalo still held a fourth-quarter advantage that Nix ultimately managed to erase. Nix may not be flawless, but his mobility and ability to perform under pressure are distinct advantages that Stidham simply does not provide.

Denver’s defense will need to deliver an extraordinary performance next week—even if opposing Houston’s unpredictable offense—should it aim to carry this team to the Super Bowl. And even if they manage to force numerous turnovers and narrowly reach the championship game, the Broncos would then be tasked with overcoming an opponent that has enjoyed two weeks of rest and likely retains its primary quarterback.

It is regrettable. Observing what Sean Payton and this Broncos squad might have accomplished would have been enjoyable. Payton stood to become the inaugural coach to secure a Super Bowl title with two separate franchises. However, following the revelations concerning Nix’s injury, such aspirations become considerably more challenging to envision. — Graziano

The persistent inquiry: What explains the Buffalo Bills’ repeated failures in the playoffs?

I truly do not know. What commentary can be offered? The Bills committed five turnovers, and no team doing so merits remaining competitive in any contest. Josh Allen’s fumble at the conclusion of the first half, which allowed the Broncos to extend their lead to 20-10, was an unpardonable error. He was then dispossessed of the ball at the start of the second half, providing Denver with an even greater advantage. He subsequently threw an interception almost immediately after a crucial defensive recovery.

It appeared as though Allen was creating the team’s predicament, and then, consistent with his pattern, Allen was also the one responsible for extricating the Bills. Nevertheless, an excessive number of opportunities were squandered. Allen failed to link up with Khalil Shakir on a third-and-8 screen pass within the red zone, a play that could have resulted in a touchdown, and he also overthrew an un-covered Dawson Knox at the close of regulation, a pass that might have secured the victory. Allen concurrently represented one of the primary factors keeping the Bills competitive in that match, while also being a significant contributor to their ultimate shortfall.

The Bills have now reached the postseason for seven straight years under Allen’s leadership, which consequently means they have endured seven playoff defeats. On the field, however, there isn’t a single overarching theme. The caliber of wide receivers was a notable factor in this particular game; Allen completed 0 of 9 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, and deep passing success frequently correlates with receiver performance. The team’s ability to pressure the quarterback has been a recurring concern and resurfaced in this contest; Nix faced pressure on only 20% of his dropbacks, necessitating blitzes from the Bills to generate heat. The depth of the defensive backfield was also a significant issue; two of Nix’s three touchdowns were scored against substitute defensive backs.

Nevertheless, having accumulated seven playoff defeats, certain consistent elements emerge—specifically, head coach Sean McDermott, General Manager Brandon Beane, and quarterback Allen. This trio has been at the helm of the Bills’ organization for nearly a decade and has yet to achieve ultimate success. Regardless of justification, ultimate responsibility rests with the leadership, and the Bills’ inability to reach a Super Bowl during Allen’s tenure, despite seven playoff berths, represents a substantial shortfall.

Should the Bills opt for organizational alterations, I would completely understand. Conversely, if they choose against making changes, I would equally comprehend that decision. They have come agonizingly close on numerous occasions. Truly a heartbreaking defeat. — Solak