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The Kansas City Chiefs are akin to the Chicago Bulls during the Michael Jordan era, appearing in numerous Super Bowls, making it challenging for other teams to secure a victory.
That positions the Buffalo Bills as the Charles Barkley of this period. Perhaps the Baltimore Ravens represent the contemporary Patrick Ewing. Alternatively, they could assert their claim to John Stockton and Karl Malone, or possibly Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp.
Discussing the Josh Allen-led Bills (or the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens, which we’ll address later in the countdown) inevitably involves the Chiefs. The current era of Bills football has been remarkable. The franchise failed to secure a single playoff victory from the conclusion of the 1995 season until the 2020 season, Allen’s third year with the team. They endured 17 seasons without even reaching the playoffs. Now, the Bills are regular playoff contenders. They have clinched five consecutive AFC East titles after a 24-season drought. Allen received the NFL MVP award last season, marking the first time a Bills quarterback has achieved this honor. It has been a successful period for Buffalo.
However, despite the excitement Allen has generated and the team’s achievements following nearly a quarter-century of struggles, there have also been frustrations, primarily due to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
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Four of the last five seasons have concluded with a playoff defeat against the Chiefs. In the previous season, this occurred in the AFC championship game, resulting in a 32-29 loss at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills were close, similar to their encounter in Kansas City three seasons prior when they held a lead with only 13 seconds remaining in regulation, only to lose. Had a quarterback sneak been evaluated differently in last season’s AFC championship game, or a fourth-down pass been secured by Dalton Kincaid, or had any of the numerous plays that can alter a three-point playoff game favored Buffalo, they might have advanced to the Super Bowl. This encapsulates the theme of what has otherwise been a fruitful decade for Buffalo.
It appears that in an alternative reality where Mahomes and the Chiefs were not a dominant force, Allen would possess at least one championship ring, possibly more. They are sufficiently talented. The Chiefs have simply performed better when it mattered most. There is a tangible possibility that Allen or Jackson, two of the premier quarterbacks of their generation, could conclude their careers without a Super Bowl appearance due to the Chiefs’ consistent presence in the championship game. This makes it challenging for Bills fans to fully appreciate the considerable success their team has experienced. The only recourse for the Bills is to continue striving for a Super Bowl appearance with a team capable of competing at that level.
“If you were to tell me that next year we will compete in the AFC championship game, down three, with three-whatever to go in the game, and we have No. 17? I’ll commit to that scenario,” Bills GM Brandon Beane stated after the season, according to NFL.com. “There are numerous actions required to find yourself in that situation.”
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The Bills will require favorable circumstances to overcome obstacles, as the roster largely remains unchanged. Persisting with the same solid core is the prudent strategy. There were not many significant additions. Defensive linemen Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi were acquired, but both will serve six-game suspensions for violating the league’s PED policy. Defensive end Joey Bosa is a prominent figure, although injuries have resulted in more missed games than sacks in recent seasons. Wide receiver Josh Palmer signed a somewhat unexpected three-year, $29 million deal, and his contribution might surpass expectations, although he has not previously been a game-changing player. The draft yielded defensive reinforcements, but every other AFC contender also had draft choices, and most of them selected before Buffalo.
There is nothing inherently wrong with retaining the majority of the same roster, supplemented by calculated risks on several veterans with flaws. The Bills possessed a formidable offense spearheaded by the MVP, and the defense has consistently performed well under Sean McDermott’s guidance. They have not reached the Super Bowl, but that does not preclude them from doing so.
The Bills must simply discover a way to finally defeat the Chiefs, which is easier said than done.
Offseason assessment
The Bills allocated their initial five draft picks to defense, and four of their top five free agent acquisitions were also defensive players. Buffalo is relying on Josh Allen to maintain the offense’s elite status and the defensive additions to drive improvements. Defensive line acquisitions Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, and Larry Ogunjobi all carry risk due to Bosa’s injury history and Hoecht and Ogunjobi’s six-game suspensions for violating the PED policy. First-round pick Maxwell Hairston is expected to start at cornerback, and familiar face Tre’Davious White was re-signed to bolster the position as well. The sole offensive offseason addition who appears likely to contribute is wide receiver Joshua Palmer, who received $29 million over three years but failed to capitalize on opportunities with the Chargers, amassing only 1,165 yards and three touchdowns in the past two seasons combined. The Bills should not have sought a major overhaul, and they lacked the cap space to do so regardless. They maximized their resources effectively.
Grade: B-
Quarterback analysis
The Bills’ offseason strategy centered on the belief that Josh Allen already had sufficient offensive support. This assessment is likely accurate, given that the Bills ranked second in the NFL in points scored. However, there is a case to be made that Allen could excel even further with additional assistance, particularly if he had a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver. However, do not raise this point with Bills general manager Brandon Beane, who addressed the topic vehemently on “The Jeremy and Joe” radio show in Buffalo.
“You were critical of Josh Allen back in 2018, expressing your preference for Josh Rosen, and now you are complaining that we lack a receiver,” Beane stated. ” … We just amassed 30 consecutive points across eight straight games. A year prior, I understood your concerns about the absence of receivers, but I fail to comprehend it now. We just led the league in scoring, factoring in the postseason; no team scored more points than the Buffalo Bills, including the Super Bowl champions. So, we achieved this without Stefon Diggs, utilizing the same core. Why is this group not superior to last year’s iteration? Our objective is to score points and secure victories. Where do we need to improve? Defense. We addressed that. Therefore, I recognize that you need to produce a show and find something to critique, but complaining about the wide receiver position is among the most absurd arguments I’ve encountered.”
Acknowledged then.
Josh Allen accumulated 3,731 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, along with 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, during his NFL MVP season. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
(Michael Owens via Getty Images)
BetMGM odds analysis
According to Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Will this be Buffalo’s breakthrough year? Following a MVP campaign, Josh Allen’s Bills are among only four teams with a win total of 11.5 at BetMGM, and they are the only NFL team expected to be favored in all 17 games this season. Furthermore, the Bills are not just favored in every game, but they are also at least 5.5-point favorites in 11 of those contests. The Bills have exceeded their win total in seven of the eight seasons under head coach Sean McDermott. The AFC playoffs are likely to converge on Buffalo.”
Yahoo’s fantasy perspective
According to Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “While Ray Davis is approximately 30 pounds heavier than his teammate James Cook, it is essential to acknowledge Davis’s capabilities in the passing game. Davis demonstrated consistent pass-catching abilities throughout his college career, securing 17 of 19 opportunities last year, yielding an impressive 9.9 yards per target. We have previously observed Davis’s potential in a featured role when he secured a midseason start last year and amassed 152 total yards. With Cook being undersized and dissatisfied with his contract, Davis represents one of the more intriguing speculative plays on the board.”
Key statistic
The Bills led the NFL in turnover margin last season with +24, with the next best team at +16. The Bills significantly outperformed the competition in turnover margin, an achievement that will be challenging to replicate. A major factor in turnover margin was an offense that rarely turned the ball over, recording only six interceptions and two fumbles lost. While this can be attributed in part to having an elite quarterback, these figures are still remarkably low and unsustainable. Fumble luck heavily favored Buffalo, with the Bills recovering a league-leading 68.1% of fumbles, while only one other team exceeded 56.6%. This is also unlikely to repeat.
The Bills’ defense also excelled at forcing turnovers, generating 32, which was just one shy of the NFL lead. After three consecutive seasons finishing within the top nine in points and yards allowed, the Bills regressed to 17th in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed (they were 11th in defensive DVOA, for those who prefer advanced metrics), and this was achieved with the benefit of numerous interceptions and fumbles recovered. The Bills will need to improve defensively to compensate for the inevitable decline in takeaways and turnover margin, which is why they invested heavily in that side of the ball.
Critical question
Does the supporting cast around Josh Allen matter?
Brandon Beane’s rant notwithstanding, it is undeniable that the Bills have a less accomplished ensemble of supporting players for their quarterback compared to other AFC contenders. This rationale was used by voters to justify selecting Allen as MVP, while simultaneously acknowledging Lamar Jackson’s superior quarterbacking by voting him onto the All-Pro first team. Furthermore, one of Allen’s most productive teammates, James Cook, spent the majority of the offseason unsuccessfully seeking a new contract after scoring a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns and 18 overall TDs. The Bills must hope that Cook’s contractual frustration does not negatively impact his performance. Ray Davis is a promising second-year backup to Cook, should the need arise. There is potential upside within the skill-position group, particularly with Allen’s ability to elevate his teammates. Keon Coleman, a second-round pick last year, was showing progress before a wrist injury hindered his development. Khalil Shakir, while not a breakout star, proved to be a reliable target, amassing 821 yards. Tight end Dalton Kincaid still possesses the potential to become a primary target, despite a disappointing 2024 season with just 448 yards. Ultimately, the answer is likely that the supporting cast around Allen is relatively immaterial, as evidenced by his MVP award and leadership of the NFL’s second-highest scoring offense with the same personnel.
Optimistic outlook
The Bills have consistently been one of the premier teams in the NFL this decade. Their DVOA rankings as a team, starting in 2020, are as follows: 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 4th. This is a remarkable achievement. Bills fans would have been ecstatic to hear this news at any point between 2000 and 2016, when the team missed the playoffs every season. However, in the current championship-driven era of sports, the Josh Allen era will likely be viewed as a disappointment if it does not culminate in a championship. This is unfortunate but unavoidable. The positive aspect is that the Bills have not overreacted to narrow losses in a single-elimination playoff format. They recognize that they have a top-five team in the NFL, so they have maintained the status quo, hoping that they will eventually catch the right breaks in the postseason. Buffalo is expected to have a formidable offense once again, Josh Allen could secure another MVP award, the defense could rebound to a top-10 level, the Bills should dominate the AFC East, and perhaps they can finally benefit from favorable circumstances in their inevitable playoff matchup against the Chiefs and advance to the Super Bowl.
Pessimistic outlook
Among all 32 teams, the Bills are the overwhelming favorites to win their division, according to BetMGM. They are -250 to win the AFC East, a fair assessment. There is no significant contender to their dominance. However, how long will this remain the case? The Patriots recently had a productive offseason, possess a promising young quarterback whom they admire (and whom Josh Allen also admires), and have hired a top-tier coach. Buffalo appears almost certain to win the AFC East, provided Allen remains healthy, but their reign over the division may not last indefinitely. There is a sense of urgency to break through and win a championship, as the duration of their competitive window is uncertain. The Bills are once again obvious contenders, but returning to the playoffs and losing to the Chiefs, Ravens, or any other AFC team would be devastating for a fan base still awaiting its first Super Bowl championship. It is challenging to enter a season with the expectation that anything short of a Super Bowl appearance would be considered a failure, but the Bills have no other remaining goals to pursue.
Prognosis
The AFC is exceptionally competitive at the top. The Chiefs are establishing a dynasty, the Ravens performed exceptionally well last season and are projected to do so again this season, and there are teams such as the Bengals, Chargers, and Broncos who are capable of improvement and making a playoff run. There is no justification for disparaging the Bills. Josh Allen is a tremendous player, they are balanced on both sides of the ball, and they are clearly capable of winning a championship. However, within a league with numerous worthy contenders, I rank two AFC teams ahead of the Bills. The margins are slim among the top three teams in the conference, and whether the Bills ultimately break through will depend on whether they experience favorable luck in January. This has eluded this group thus far.
