A comprehensive overview of the NFL’s postseason landscape is presented as Week 15’s full schedule approaches, highlighting teams on the verge of securing playoff berths.
AFC
1. Denver Broncos (11-2): Next game — Facing the Green Bay Packers this Sunday at 4:25 ET.
Denver could secure a spot in the playoffs through any of the following outcomes:
• Defeating the Packers
• A draw with the Packers, combined with a Chargers defeat against the Chiefs
• A draw with the Packers, coupled with a Jaguars defeat against the Jets
• A draw with the Packers, alongside a Texans defeat or draw against the Cardinals
• A draw with the Packers, and a Colts defeat or draw against the Seahawks
• A Texans defeat or draw against the Cardinals, combined with a Colts defeat or draw against the Seahawks (should both the Texans and Colts tie, this scenario would not lead to a Broncos clinch)
Significant Probabilities: According to NFL.com, the Broncos are nearly guaranteed a playoff appearance, with a 99% chance. The Athletic’s playoff predictor assigns them an 87% likelihood of claiming the AFC West division title.
2. New England Patriots (11-2): Next opponent — The Buffalo Bills, this Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
The Patriots have these routes to securing a postseason spot:
• Triumphing over the Bills (which would secure the AFC East championship)
• A draw against the Bills, if the Chargers lose to the Chiefs
• A draw against the Bills, if the Texans lose or tie with the Cardinals
• A draw against the Bills, if the Colts lose or tie with the Seahawks
• A draw against the Bills, if the Jaguars lose to the Jets
• A Texans loss or tie versus the Cardinals, combined with a Colts loss or tie versus the Seahawks (however, if both the Texans and Colts tie, the Patriots would not clinch in this particular scenario)
Significant Probabilities: Possessing a distinct advantage over the Bills and having already secured a direct win against them, the Patriots are nearing the AFC East crown, with approximately a 90% chance to claim it, according to The Athletic. They also hold the most favorable odds among all teams to capture the leading seed in the AFC conference.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4): Upcoming game — Against the New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: The Jaguars currently top the AFC South and hold a 97% probability of advancing to the postseason, according to NFL.com.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6): Next match — Versus the Miami Dolphins, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: The Steelers are positioned at the top of the AFC North. Their likelihood of securing a spot in the playoffs stands at roughly 70%, as estimated by The Athletic.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4): Upcoming fixture — Visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: NFL.com indicates the Chargers possess a 74% chance of reaching the playoffs; however, their prospects of overtaking the Broncos for the division championship remain slim (at 13%, based on The Athletic’s figures).
6. Buffalo Bills (9-4): Next game — Away at the New England Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET.
Significant Probabilities: Despite Buffalo’s remote possibility of surpassing New England for the division title (estimated at 11% by The Athletic), the Bills retain a strong probability of entering the postseason, currently at 98%.
7. Houston Texans (8-5): Next matchup — Against the Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: Both NFL.com and The Athletic report that the Texans’ likelihood of making the playoffs exceeds 90%.
Remaining Contenders in the AFC Landscape
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5): Upcoming game — Traveling to face the Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Significant Probabilities: The Colts currently possess only a 28% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to NFL.com.
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7): Next game — Visiting the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: Following consecutive defeats, the Ravens’ standing in the AFC playoff race has diminished to that of a fringe contender. NFL.com estimates their postseason qualification odds at 33%.
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7): Upcoming game — Hosting the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: Kansas City’s probability of securing a playoff spot is 12%, as reported by NFL.com. Should they miss the postseason, it would mark the first such occurrence for the Chiefs in over ten years.
NFC
1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3): Next match — Hosting the Detroit Lions, Sunday, 4:25 ET
The Rams are able to secure a playoff spot via this particular scenario:
Significant Probabilities: The Rams are nearly assured a playoff entry (with 97% odds according to NFL.com), yet they remain in a fierce competition within the NFC West against the Seahawks and 49ers. While the top seed is far from guaranteed, The Athletic’s playoff odds place the Rams as frontrunners, at 48%.
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1): Next game — Away at the Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Significant Probabilities: The Packers, whose odds stood at 58% with The Athletic prior to Sunday’s game, are now overwhelmingly favored to claim the NFC North title, with chances approaching 70%.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5): Upcoming fixture — Facing the Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: Despite their loss to the Chargers, the Eagles maintain a 92% probability of reaching the playoffs, as reported by NFL.com. Nevertheless, securing the number one seed appears highly improbable.
4. Carolina Panthers (7-6): Next contest — Visiting the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET Significant Probabilities: According to NFL.com, the Panthers possess a 42% chance of advancing to the playoffs.
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3): Upcoming game — Hosting the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Significant Probabilities: While virtually assured a playoff spot (with The Athletic and NFL.com both giving them at least 97% odds), the Seahawks are not yet considered the favorites to win the NFC West.
6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4): Next opponent — Facing the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Significant Probabilities: The Athletic identifies them as strong playoff contenders, with a 95% likelihood.
7. Chicago Bears (9-4): Upcoming game — Against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Significant Probabilities: NFL.com reports the Bears have a 62% chance of securing a playoff spot. Furthermore, The Athletic suggests a 26% probability of them capturing the NFC North division title.
Remaining NFC Playoff Contenders
8. Detroit Lions (8-5): Next game — Visiting the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: NFL.com gives them a 51% chance to reach the playoffs. The Athletic indicates they have merely a 6% chance of winning the NFC North.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7): Upcoming game — Versus the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Significant Probabilities: Following Thursday’s games, the Buccaneers dropped behind the Panthers in the NFC South rankings and now hold a 54% chance of making the playoffs, as per NFL.com. Two upcoming matches against the Panthers within the next month will be crucial.
10. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1): Next game — Hosting the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Significant Probabilities: Both The Athletic and NFL.com assign them an 11% probability of qualifying for the playoffs.
Teams No Longer in Contention
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Washington Commanders (3-10)
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New Orleans Saints (3-10)
