It might have been predictable. After suggesting progress over the previous two weeks, reaching Week 11, our performance faltered.
I found myself on the losing end of several closely contested games during the Sunday schedule, resulting in a 4-11 ATS record (8-7 straight up) overall. Disappointing. The Commanders failed to maintain their lead and secure an upset victory against Miami in London, the half-point cost us our Packers -7.5 wager, and both Houston and Baltimore underperformed against weaker opponents (although narrowly avoiding outright losses).
This leaves a negative impression, but my five highlighted selections of the week offered some consolation, with a 2-3 ATS record overall. Not ideal, but not a complete disaster. The only course of action is to regroup, put the losses behind us, and identify winning opportunities in Week 12. As usual, we’ll begin by highlighting my five preferred selections for the week, featuring two first-year quarterbacks — including Shedeur Sanders — achieving outright victories.
Teams not playing in Week 12: Denver, Miami, Los Angeles (Chargers) and Washington
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2025 results
Locks of the Week ATS: 30-25-0
ATS: 73-91-0
ML: 102-61-1
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)
The Falcons are currently struggling. The team is coming off consecutive overtime defeats (one in Europe) during the past two weeks, extending their losing streak to five games. Adding to their difficulties, the Falcons placed quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on injured reserve due to a knee issue, and will now rely on Kirk Cousins as their starter moving forward. Cousins appeared ineffective under pressure last week, and the team is averaging just 20.2 points per game with him starting, since last year. Should this trend continue — particularly with receiver Drake London (knee) likely unavailable for this game — and the Falcons defense continues to concede 27.8 points per game and 399.6 total yards of offense, as they have during this losing stretch, New Orleans has a favorable opportunity for its third win of the season. Regarding the Saints, Tyler Shough performed admirably last time out and will be coming off a Week 11 bye, allowing him ample time to prepare for this divisional contest.
Projected score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
The pick: Saints -1.5
The primary focus of this game is Shedeur Sanders making his first career start after Dillon Gabriel entered concussion protocol last week. Sanders didn’t impress when he replaced Gabriel last week, but this selection isn’t solely based on the quarterbacks for Cleveland. Rather, it’s heavily influenced by the Raiders’ struggles. Offensively, they rank 30th in total yards per game and are tied for 30th in points per game. They now face the challenge of moving the ball against a Browns defense that is second in the NFL in fewest total yards per game allowed. Furthermore, Geno Smith currently leads the NFL with 13 interceptions this season and will encounter a Cleveland defense that has generated 10 turnovers over the past four games. Their ability to force turnovers will likely persist against Smith, potentially simplifying the task for Sanders and the offense to score points with favorable field position.
Projected score: Browns 20, Raiders 16
The pick: Browns +3
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)
If you’ve been following throughout the season, you’re aware of my reservations about the Packers. They’ve consistently played to the level of their opponents, resulting in closer games than expected. While this makes me doubtful about their chances for a significant playoff run if/when they qualify, I believe they are a relatively safe choice against the spread in Week 12. Why? Because despite my skepticism towards Green Bay, I have even greater concerns regarding J.J. McCarthy. There were moments last week in Minnesota’s defeat to Chicago where it seemed McCarthy was close to being replaced. He’s completing only 52.9% of his passes this season and is the first quarterback since Zach Wilson (not a desirable comparison) to throw an interception in five consecutive games to start his career.
This suggests that I don’t anticipate much from the Vikings offense, particularly against a defense that is allowing the third-fewest yards per play (4.7) this season.
Projected score: Packers 27, Vikings 17
The pick: Packers -6.5
I struggle to envision Cincinnati keeping pace. New England is currently on an 8-game winning streak, and Drake Maye is performing at an MVP caliber, leading the NFL in completion percentage (71.9%) and passing yards (2,836) heading into Week 12. He’s now set to face a Bengals defense that is surrendering 33.4 points per game this season. This is not only the highest in the league in 2025, but also the most points per game allowed in a season since the 1966 New York Giants. They’ve also conceded at least 27 points and 340 yards of offense in nine consecutive games (the longest streak in the NFL since 1970). With the Patriots expected to dominate offensively, the Bengals offense will be further hampered by Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension for this game after spitting on Jalen Ramsey. This feels like a comfortable victory and a ninth straight win for Mike Vrabel’s team.
Projected score: Patriots 30, Bengals 20
The pick: Patriots -8.5
Remaining Games
Colts at Chiefs
Projected score: Colts 27, Chiefs 24
The pick: Colts +3.5
Giants at Lions
Projected score: Lions 30, Giants 17
The pick: Lions -10.5
Jets at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 33, Jets 16
The pick: Ravens -13.5
Steelers at Bears
Projected score: Bears 24, Steelers 20
The pick: Bears -3
Seahawks at Titans
Projected score: Seahawks 30, Titans 14
The pick: Seahawks -13.5
Jaguars at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Jaguars 24
The pick: Cardinals +2.5
Eagles at Cowboys
Projected score: Eagles 30, Cowboys 20
The pick: Eagles -3.5
Buccaneers at Rams
Projected score: Rams 24, Buccaneers 23
The pick: Buccaneers +6.5
Panthers at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 33, Panthers 24
The pick: 49ers -7
