NFL Week 3: Rodgers Update & Bengals Without Burrow

As Week 3 of the NFL season approaches, Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano, league experts, are analyzing the latest headlines and interesting information.

There’s plenty to delve into after Week 2. Specifically, what course of action should the Bengals pursue regarding Joe Burrow’s turf toe, and what steps will they actually take? How is the budding Aaron Rodgers-Steelers connection progressing after these first two weeks? Furthermore, which quarterbacks across the league face the greatest risk of being sidelined?

To gain insight into these situations, Jeremy and Dan consulted various sources within the league. They also pinpointed initial assumptions from the preseason that are already being reconsidered after just two weeks of gameplay. Dan and Jeremy provide their responses to crucial questions and reveal details from their reporting as Week 3 approaches.

Jump to:
Bengals’ QB plans | Early Rodgers returns
Early-season surprises | QBs on the hot seat

With Joe Burrow sidelined, what’s the anticipated strategy for the Bengals? What updates are you receiving from Cincinnati?

Graziano: The Bengals are confident in Jake Browning’s capability to manage their offense and secure victories. They emphasize his contributions during the latter half of the 2023 season, when Burrow was sidelined due to a wrist injury. With Browning as the starter, they achieved a 4-3 record. Now, in his fifth season with the team, he possesses a thorough understanding of their system, is well-versed in the offensive plays, and brings more experience compared to his previous stint.

If Browning’s performance falters and the Bengals experience losses, they might explore external options. (This week, they brought in Mike White and Sean Clifford to join their practice squad.) However, they hold the opinion that they possess one of the strongest, perhaps even the strongest, backup quarterback setups in the league. While nobody hopes to put it to the test, that’s currently the reality for the Bengals. If they can secure just one win in their upcoming four games — at Minnesota, at Denver, home against Detroit, at Green Bay — they’ll emerge from this demanding stretch with a 3-3 record, well-positioned to compete for a division title and a playoff berth, thanks to the talented players around Browning. Achieving a 2-2 record or better would be a significant accomplishment for them.

Fowler: Browning has gained significant trust within the Bengals organization for his self-assurance, ability to run the offense, and strong rapport with the team’s offensive players. He’s recognized for his dedicated preparation and deep understanding of both the game plan and the strategies of opposing defenses.

Is this sufficient to compensate for Burrow’s absence? Certainly not. However, there’s a sense that if Browning and the Bengals can maintain stability for a few months, Burrow might return for a late-season push. Sources within the Bengals suggest Burrow could be back by mid-December. While they acknowledge it’s not guaranteed, it remains a possibility.

Moreover, the Bengals believe they might experience better fortune this season compared to last when they encountered various setbacks. Their 31-27 victory over Jacksonville on Sunday exemplifies this – successfully executing a red zone stop and then driving 92 yards to secure the win was a rarity in their 2024 playbook. Dan, what’s your overall impression of the Bengals as a team?

Graziano: They stand at 2-0, which is fortunate. However, it’s a marked improvement from their usual September form, which often sees them starting with an unlucky 0-2 record. This gives them an opportunity. Let’s imagine Burrow is sidelined for 12 games (an optimistic scenario based on my understanding) and the Bengals manage a 6-6 record during those games. This would place them at 8-6, with Burrow returning just in time for a playoff push. If they then win their final three games, reaching an 11-6 record and securing a playoff spot, who would relish facing them?

Naturally, this is all hypothetical. Burrow might not recover before the end of the regular season, and even upon his return, his capabilities might be restricted. This scenario also relies on Browning performing effectively for a duration almost twice as long as in 2023, and for Cincinnati’s defense to significantly outperform expectations. Should this not materialize, or if Burrow remains out for the remainder of the season, discussions will likely focus on a quarterback who has sustained a season-ending injury in three of his six seasons, and whether any measures can be taken to address this recurring issue.

Fowler: The adequacy of Cincinnati’s protection of Burrow, or lack thereof, is a relevant consideration. The comparison of Burrow’s career trajectory to that of Andrew Luck in Indianapolis should concern Cincinnati, as they may not have invested sufficiently in the offensive line. Typically, teams that allocate free-agent funds and high draft picks to the offensive line do not regret it, as quarterback injuries are an inherent aspect of NFL life. Cincinnati’s acquisitions of left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. (a significant free-agent signing in 2023) and right tackle Amarius Mims (a first-round pick in 2024) exemplify effective strategies. However, their reliance on rookie Dylan Fairchild in the middle rounds, 32-year-old center Ted Karras, and free-agent Dalton Risner as a journeyman is insufficient.

It’s worth noting that Cincinnati’s contract structure – which generally avoids guaranteeing money beyond the first year of a contract, except for players like Burrow or Ja’Marr Chase – might exclude them from pursuing top-tier free-agent linemen seeking two- or three-year guarantees. Furthermore, Burrow’s inclination to remain in the pocket while waiting for routes to develop contributes to the recurring problem. He endures hits and their associated physical repercussions. However, allocating additional resources to strengthen the offensive line remains a beneficial approach.

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What’s the general sentiment around the league regarding Aaron Rodgers’ initial two games with Pittsburgh?

Fowler: The initial feedback appears quite encouraging. His arm strength, which has never been a concern, has remained robust. Furthermore, his agility seems somewhat improved compared to his final year with the Jets. While he’s no longer at his peak athletic condition, he demonstrates sufficient mobility to evade the pocket and effectively manage the game. However, as many have noted, the more critical question revolves around Rodgers’ physical resilience over a 17-game season.

An AFC scout commented on Rodgers’ last season with the Jets, stating, “The Week 5 game in London against Minnesota marked a period of about six to eight weeks with nearly zero mobility due to injury. His performance was visibly affected. However, after a year of recovery from the Achilles tear, he appears more confident and less hesitant compared to last year.”

Rodgers is set to face formidable pass rushers in the near future, especially from the Vikings (Sept. 28) and the Packers (Oct. 26). What are your expectations for an offense led by Rodgers in Pittsburgh?

Graziano: Personally, I believe there’s a limit to what can be achieved. While enthusiasm is understandable, his QBR stands at 23rd after two weeks, closely mirroring his performance from the previous season (25th). I believe his current performance aligns with what can be expected from a 41-year-old.

While he retains his throwing ability, I anticipate that he’ll only excel under optimal conditions, which are currently not present. Although this offense has the potential to be good, I question its capacity to be truly exceptional, which brings me to my broader concern regarding the Steelers: the underwhelming performance of their defense in the first two games.

The success of the Rodgers experiment hinges on support from the Steelers’ traditionally strong defense and special teams, which have been notably disappointing thus far. While it’s commonly assumed that the Steelers will excel defensively, what if this season proves to be an exception? Being one of the most experienced, if not the most experienced, defenses in the league, the recent performance may indicate a deeper issue rather than just a temporary setback.

Fowler: When assessing this team during the preseason, the age of several key defensive players was difficult to overlook and has become even more evident now. Defensive tackle Cameron Heyward is 36, cornerback Darius Slay is 34, and both edge rusher T.J. Watt and cornerback Jalen Ramsey will turn 31 next month. While I don’t doubt the ongoing productivity of these established stars, depending so heavily on four players over 30 on one side of the field poses a significant challenge.

The upcoming schedule over the next month appears manageable, featuring a road game against the Patriots, followed by home games against the Vikings and Browns, and a road game against the Bengals. The latter three teams are currently grappling with quarterback uncertainties. If Pittsburgh’s pass defense doesn’t stabilize against this quartet, it will face significant challenges against the Packers and Colts following their Week 7 bye.

Graziano: Agreed. Since the offseason, which was uncharacteristic for the Steelers, this situation has seemed more delicate than usual. They implemented numerous changes to their roster in key areas, and relying on a 41-year-old quarterback carries considerable risk. I maintain confidence in Mike Tomlin’s ability to guide his team through the season and optimize their performance, especially given his established record. However, there’s a need for encouraging signs soon. As of now, the concerns I expressed about this team during the offseason seem justified. They narrowly avoided an 0-2 record thanks to a 60-yard field goal by Chris Boswell.

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What’s a viewpoint that has changed for you since the season began?

Graziano: I may have underestimated the Falcons’ defense. Atlanta is relying on rookies in four key positions, but all four are performing well and appeared remarkable in unsettling J.J. McCarthy on Sunday night. During my visit to their training camp in late July, I spoke with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who was enthusiastic about their new scheme. He remarked, “I wouldn’t want to face us in the first couple of weeks of the season.”

They were competitive in Week 1 against Tampa Bay until the end and dominated Minnesota in Week 2. It’s possible that the rookie edge rusher combination of Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., aided by Leonard Floyd’s veteran presence, provides a significantly improved pass rush compared to recent Falcons teams. Furthermore, they’re enthusiastic about rookie defensive backs Billy Bowman Jr. and Xavier Watts. Can they maintain this performance throughout the season and seriously contend for the postseason?

Fowler I initially thought the Chiefs’ offense would be in good shape, and I still believe that to some extent. However, concerns are mounting. The Chiefs anticipate that their passing game will significantly improve once Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown are active in their three-receiver sets. Nevertheless, their offensive output has been only average for several years now – Kansas City hasn’t truly excelled on that side of the ball since 2022.

Their running game lacks efficiency. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have yet to reestablish the connection that sustained them for the better part of the last decade. Mahomes clearly requires more assistance and is attempting to force plays, leading him to run more than necessary this early in the season. Although he’s in his prime and performed exceptionally well during training camp, he may still find a way to carry this offense through a complete season. While it’s possible the Chiefs are buying time and will ramp up their performance later, it’s becoming increasingly challenging to believe that.

Graziano: I sense the Chiefs’ frustration with the recurring issues in their WR room, which is consistently affected by injuries and other setbacks. However, they anticipate improvement once Worthy returns and Rice completes his suspension. I believe this will also benefit the running game. They should be able to recover this Sunday against the Giants. While it’s premature to dismiss Andy Reid and Mahomes, the concerns are legitimate.

Additionally, I initially believed the Dolphins would be less formidable than many predicted, but defending my optimism has been challenging. They’re 0-2 and have performed poorly in both games, making it difficult to envision them turning things around against Buffalo on Thursday. The Dolphins invested considerable effort during the offseason to transform their team culture, but the on-field results have been disappointing. They need to improve rapidly.

Fowler: I entered the season with moderate apprehension regarding Miami, considering their replacement of several key players with more cost-effective alternatives. It feels like a minor rebuild. However, the offense has consistently functioned with a passing game featuring quarterback Tua Tagovailoa alongside receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Some within the league wonder if defenses have adapted to Mike McDaniel’s offensive strategies. Thursday will provide another test of this.

I’ve also revised my opinion of quarterback Spencer Rattler and the Saints’ offense. I anticipated a worse performance, given the transitional state of New Orleans’ roster and Rattler’s status as a fifth-round pick in 2024. However, Rattler has been solid, and I consistently heard last season that New Orleans’ previous staff believed in him, attributing many of his previous struggles to a severely depleted roster. Nevertheless, New Orleans appears at least competent despite their 0-2 start. Kellen Moore is among the more astute offensive coaches, and that’s evident thus far.

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Which quarterback faces the greatest risk of being benched?

Fowler: Cleveland’s situation requires monitoring. Joe Flacco’s position is secure for now, but as with most bridge quarterbacks holding off a rookie backup, securing the job requires winning games. This was evident with Jacoby Brissett eventually losing his position to Drake Maye in New England last season, although that situation differed due to Maye’s status as the No. 3 pick. However, the general principle remains applicable.

Otherwise, teams typically shift to the younger option, hoping the player can ignite the offense or provide optimism for the future. Flacco has maintained his arm strength and still demonstrates some mobility, and he was notably sharp in Week 1. However, Dillon Gabriel’s mobility presents an advantage should Cleveland turn to him.

Graziano: Flacco is likely the correct answer here for all the reasons you mentioned. The Giants’ Russell Wilson likely delayed the Jaxson Dart discourse for at least a week or two with his 450-yard performance in Dallas, but Wilson has a first-round pick waiting behind him who everyone knows will eventually take over. It’s just a matter of timing. The Giants are hesitant to rush Dart, but as you noted in the Cleveland example, it’s challenging to keep the kid on the bench when you’re not winning.

Fowler: Yes, we thoroughly addressed the Giants’ QB situation last week, so it’s worth keeping an eye on. Otherwise, the NFL’s quarterback landscape is fairly clear, so I’ll introduce two wild cards from the NFC North.

What if Caleb Williams of the Bears struggles to adapt to Ben Johnson’s timing-and-rhythm passing game by, say, Week 10? I believe Williams showed encouraging signs in Sunday’s loss in Detroit. However, the sentiment emerging from Bears camp was that, despite Williams’ exceptional talent, the offense functioned more smoothly with Tyson Bagent leading the huddle. Is Johnson willing to exercise patience here? I think so, and Williams’ immense talent is a commodity worth investing in. However, coaches face pressure to win – three-year grace periods no longer exist – and Johnson didn’t draft Williams. Just a thought.

In Minnesota, what if Carson Wentz performs strongly over these next few weeks and revitalizes the Vikings’ offense? Would that lead to a temporary reset for J.J. McCarthy after he recovers from his high ankle sprain, even if only for a few games? Given the Vikings’ expressed confidence in McCarthy, such a move would be unexpected. However, McCarthy’s performance, aside from the fourth quarter in Chicago, has been concerning.

Graziano: If the Vikings were to move on from McCarthy, they’d essentially be admitting that everything they’ve conveyed about their confidence and belief in him this offseason was insincere. I believe the Vikings genuinely believe he’s at a stage in his development where he requires playing time, and I anticipate he’ll regain the starting role once he’s healthy.

However, you raise a valid point. If Wentz performs exceptionally well, it’s worth considering whether they’d stick with him. This team secured 14 wins last season and knows it possesses a roster capable of reaching the playoffs. The Vikings hope this season will be crucial for McCarthy’s development, but they also want to win games.