The expectation is high for Week 4 to either exceed or equal the excitement of Week 3 in the NFL. It might require a break to properly process if we experience something similar to the previous week, which was undoubtedly one of the most unpredictable periods the NFL has ever witnessed.
The sheer number of blocked field goals made it challenging to keep up. You understand the situation is unusual when that occurs. Additionally, the Bengals displayed one of the poorest performances of the week, losing possession three times in four offensive plays against the Vikings, while also surrendering two defensive touchdowns. What about the Browns? Cleveland often discovers innovative methods to suffer agonizing defeats. However, against the Packers, who appeared formidable in the initial two weeks of the season, the Browns remarkably achieved a significant victory by overcoming a 10-point deficit in the final four minutes. It was arguably the most atypical Browns win I’ve ever observed. The performance was so noteworthy that it might be time to contemplate joining the Browns’ supporters.
Week 3 was exceptionally volatile, and considering the Week 4 schedule, Sunday’s games could potentially be even more unpredictable, particularly if my predictions are accurate. There are 15 games scheduled between Sunday and Monday, and I’m boldly selecting six underdogs to win outright. Is Week 4 going to be defined by underdog victories, or will I appear foolish once the final games on Monday are concluded? Let’s examine my selections to find out.
NFL Week 4 predictions
Steelers (2-1) vs. Vikings (2-1) in Ireland
9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Fubo, give it a try at no cost)
To be upfront, I am reluctant to forecast this game. My primary reason is that I seem to lack understanding this year when it comes to predicting games involving an NFC North team. For the 2025 season, my record stands at 37-11 in outright game predictions, which sounds impressive until you realize that I am a mere 4-8 when forecasting games involving NFC North teams. The math is simple. Or maybe not. Let’s not dwell on the numbers. There’s no time.
Regarding the NFC North, I seem to be encountering the classic problem of anticipating incorrectly: Whenever I foresee a particular outcome, the opposite occurs. When I anticipate one action, a different event unfolds. If I forecast an NFC North team to lose against the Bengals, they unexpectedly accumulate 48 points. If I expect an NFC North team to easily defeat the Browns, they inexplicably squander a 10-point lead with only four minutes remaining. And yes, Packers, I’m focusing on you.
Fortunately for me, I don’t believe my NFC North curse will apply here, since this game is taking place outside of the country. It will be the inaugural NFL game played in Dublin. Based on my understanding of Dublin, every fan present will have consumed at least seven pints of Guinness by kickoff. I once travelled to Ireland, and the sole activity I engaged in for three consecutive days was drinking Guinness and enjoying Irish Stew. And honestly, I am about 40% certain that Guinness was an ingredient in the stew. They integrate Guinness into everything. They also possess the remarkable ability to transform nearly any dish into a stew. I am very fond of Ireland.
It is almost symbolic that the Vikings and Steelers will clash this week. Only two games thus far have seen a team force five turnovers: The Vikings achieved it against the Bengals in Week 3, and the Steelers accomplished it against the Patriots in Week 3.
The Vikings introduced Carson Wentz as their starting QB in Week 3, but no significant insights were gained, since he commenced the second half with a 31-point advantage. Arguably, the most straightforward situation for an NFL QB is to play with a 31-point lead in the second half.
Wentz absorbed three sacks during the first half against the Bengals, and now he will confront a Steelers defense that registered five sacks against the Patriots. Wentz likely would have been sacked more frequently in Week 3, but the Vikings only attempted six passes in the second half due to their substantial lead. Like I said, the NFL is much easier for QBs with a 31-point lead. I predict that Minnesota won’t hold a 31-point lead against the Steelers at any point, so this feels like a match where Pittsburgh’s defense will be able to pressure Wentz.
While I expect Wentz to face difficulties, I also expect Aaron Rodgers to face challenges against the Vikings defense. My intuition leans towards selecting the Steelers, but it could also be the influence of the Irish Stew.
PREDICTION: Steelers 20-17 over Vikings | Steelers +2.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets after a winning $5 wager:
Eagles (3-0) at Buccaneers (3-0)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, give it a try at no cost)
Since January 2022, this game will mark the fifth encounter between the Eagles and Buccaneers, and every single one, including this game, has taken place in Tampa. The Eagles’ roster might collectively decide to purchase a property together in the Tampa region. I’ve heard it’s a beneficial market for buyers, though I admit my real estate expertise is limited, so please don’t rely on my opinion.
This could be the inaugural NFL game between two 3-0 teams that easily could have been 0-3. The Buccaneers would be winless if NFL games were restricted to 59 minutes. No team has leveraged the final minute of regulation more effectively than the Buccaneers.
It’s challenging to accurately assess the Bucs’ true quality, primarily because of the caliber of their opponents. Here’s a synopsis of their opponents thus far:
Week 1: Falcons (1-2)
Week 2: Texans (0-3)
Week 3: Jets (0-3)
Their three opponents collectively have a 1-8 record through three weeks. Considering their combined performance, the Bucs should be dominating their rivals, but that’s not occurring. This team is only three plays away from being 0-3. The Bucs resemble that fantasy league player who maintains a 3-0 record despite having the league’s second-lowest scoring team each week. Somehow, they are consistently matched against the team that tallies the fewest points each week, enabling them to continue winning, frustrating everyone else.
The Eagles also could be winless. They depended on two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter to defeat the Rams in Week 3. They depended on Travis Kelce dropping a touchdown pass (which became an interception) to overcome the Chiefs in Week 2. In Week 1, they narrowly edged out the Cowboys.
I suspect I’m suggesting that there’s an unequivocal likelihood of this game being tightly contested until the very end, and there is a certainty of a dramatic conclusion. A problem for the Eagles is that under Nick Sirianni, the Buccaneers have consistently outperformed them. Todd Bowles isn’t typically known for outcoaching, but he routinely outmaneuvers Sirianni. Bowles has a 4-1 record in his past five games against Sirianni. A major factor is that the Bucs have limited Philly to just 17.4 points per game. Conversely, the Buccaneers have averaged 27 points per game in those five games. So the Eagles offense struggles to advance the ball against Tampa Bay, and the Philly defense is unable to make stops.
Jalen Hurts has a 18-0 record in the past 18 games that he has started and finished. His previous loss came in Week 4 of the 2024 season against the Buccaneers. If there’s a team capable of ending his streak, Tampa Bay seems fitting.
PREDICTION: Buccaneers 23-20 over Eagles | Buccaneers +3.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where you can get 20 100% profit boosts with the promo code CBS20X. Get started here:
Browns (1-2) at Lions (2-1)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, give it a try at no cost)
I never anticipated declaring the Cleveland Browns to be among the NFL’s most underestimated teams. Although we enjoy ridiculing the Browns, and they provided ample material for the initial two weeks, they are a legitimate contender.
The Browns have restricted all three opponents to below 250 yards this season, a feat that seems improbable given that they’ve faced the Bengals (with Joe Burrow), the Ravens, and the Packers. The defense is exceptional, so if the Browns can manage somewhat adequate offense and special teams play, they could secure numerous unexpected victories this year.
Let’s examine the statistics:
- Week 1: The Browns more than doubled the Bengals’ yardage output (327-141), but they lost because their kicker missed a field goal and an extra point in the fourth quarter.
- Week 2: Yes the Browns were defeated 41-17 by the Ravens, but the defense isn’t at fault. The Browns held Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to a combined 36 rushing yards. This was the first instance of the duo being restricted to under 100. To reiterate: Jackson and Henry had NEVER been held under 100 combined rushing yards. The Browns also outgained the Ravens 323-242, but their offense and special teams were dysfunctional: They committed an interception, a lost fumble and gave up a blocked punt. The Ravens had three scoring drives of less than 25 yards.
- Week 3: The Browns held the Packers to just 230 yards. However, they nearly lost to Green Bay because the offense was virtually non-existent for three and a half quarters. Then, Joe Flacco rallied to engineer three scoring drives in the final 10 minutes, and unlike Week 1, Andre Szmyt delivered with a game-winning field goal.
The Browns have faced three strong offenses, yet the defense hasn’t faltered: They’ve surrendered the fewest yards in the NFL, they have the third-most sacks, and they’re only giving up 2.3 yards per rushing attempt, which is the league’s best statistic.
If you can pressure Jared Goff, the Lions will struggle. We saw that in Week 1 when Detroit was dominated by the Packers. If I had faith in the Browns’ offense (or their special teams), I would favor Cleveland by DOUBLE DIGITS. Since I lack that faith, I’m predicting the Browns will win for the second straight week on a last-second field goal. Considering that the Lions are coming off a significant victory over the Ravens on Monday night, this seems like an ideal opportunity for a setback.
Before Lions fans become upset about my prediction, remember that I seem to lack insight when it involves forecasting games involving NFC North teams this year.
PREDICTION: Browns 20-17 over Lions | Browns +9.5 | Odds via BetMGM. Get up to $1,500 in bonus bets at BetMGM Sportsbook if your first football bet doesn’t win. Click here to get started:
Colts (3-0) at Rams (2-1)
4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, give it a try at no cost)
I have selected the Colts to win EVERY time they have played this year. I am so convinced of this team’s potential that I’m initiating efforts to trademark “Indiana Jones and the Comeback Crusade” to market t-shirts to Colts supporters following Indianapolis’s Super Bowl appearance. Every reader of my selections will receive a buy-one-get-one-free coupon.
While I frequently commend Daniel Jones for the Colts’ achievements this year, the truth is that Jonathan Taylor deserves significant recognition. When healthy, he is one of the premier running backs in the NFL. Following more than 15 games missed due to injury in the past three seasons, he has been healthy this season. Taylor is averaging 112.7 rushing yards per game, which opens up Indy’s offensive opportunities. With opponents concentrating on stopping Taylor, Jones has elevated his performance, explaining the Colts’ 3-0 record.
However, two of their three wins were against two of the league’s worst teams: The Dolphins and Titans. They will face a Rams team this week that is capable of stopping the run. They demonstrated this on Sunday by holding Saquon Barkley to 46 yards.
The Colts defense has performed adequately this season, but it hasn’t faced considerable adversity: They’ve matched up against Tua Tagovailoa (Week 1), Bo Nix (Week 2), and Cam Ward (Week 3). Without disparaging those individuals, they aren’t Matthew Stafford. Transitioning from Ward to Stafford in successive weeks is akin to switching from sparring with your neighbor at the gym to contending with Mike Tyson at his peak.
Based on my experience with Indiana Jones movies, the hero will eventually fail to learn a valuable lesson. This is when Jones and the Colts will fail for the first time this season.
PREDICTION: Rams 27-24 over Colts | Colts +3.5 | Odds via DraftKings
Packers (2-1) at Cowboys (1-2)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo, give it a try at no cost)
I believe I’ve finally ascertained the rationale for the Cowboys’ failure to return to the Super Bowl in the past 30 years, which could be connected to Barry Bones.
Jerry Jones undertook the most significant gamble of the NFL offseason in August when he opted to trade Micah Parsons to the Packers. Although only three weeks have passed, that decision already seems like one of the five worst in NFL history.
If you haven’t watched a Cowboys game this season, I will inform you how their defense has performed without Parsons:
- They’ve surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL
- They’ve surrendered the third-most total yards in the NFL
- They are the worst in the NFL at stopping teams on third down (opponents are converting 53.6% of their third down attempts)
- Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 9.8 yards per pass. That’s the highest number that any team is giving up in the NFL. It means that opposing teams are nearly getting a first down EVERY TIME they throw a pass (No other team is even surrendering nine yards per pass)
- They’ve given up the second-most touchdown passes in the NFL
An effective countermeasure to poor pass defense is a generational pass-rusher. However, the Cowboys lack that asset due to JERRY’S TRADE. Even worse, he sent him to a team that the Cowboys are playing this week, not the AFC.
Considering their defense’s performance, it seems improbable that the Cowboys can impede Green Bay’s offense. Consequently, Dallas’s sole opportunity to succeed in this game lies in the offense’s ability to maintain a competitive position in a shootout. I believe that Micah Parsons will actively strive to prevent that outcome. Additionally, CeeDee Lamb (ankle) is likely unable to play. Unless the Packers consent to trade Parsons back to Dallas before Sunday, I don’t foresee the Cowboys winning.
The Cowboys have been in a downward spiral for 30 years. The reason is that they continue to let Jerry Jones operate the team. At some juncture, they should give him a fake car to simulate driving, while another individual is actually driving.
PREDICTION: Packers 31-17 over Cowboys | Packers -7 | Odds via BetMGM
NFL Week 4 predictions: The Remaining Games
Seahawks 27-20 over Cardinals
Chargers 23-16 over Giants
Bills 34-17 over Saints
Commanders 30-23 over Falcons
Patriots 24-16 over Panthers
Texans 19-16 over Titans
49ers 19-16 over Jaguars
Ravens 31-23 over Chiefs
Bears 34-27 over Raiders
Jets 22-19 over Dolphins
Broncos 27-17 over Bengals
Last Week
Top Pick: Last week, I indicated that the Jaguars would defeat the Texans. And as predicted, the Jags defeated the Texans. This game involved 16 penalties, 12 punts, four turnovers (all in the fourth quarter), and two missed field goals. It had all of the elements one would expect from a game featuring two AFC South teams. AFC South football is the Taco Bell of the NFL: I can’t always consume it, but if the mood strikes, it becomes a necessity.
Poorest Pick: I have made regrettable choices throughout my life, but selecting the Bengals to defeat the Vikings last week might prove to be my worst decision of the year. The Bengals were fielding a backup quarterback for the first time in two years and were playing on the road. A blowout loss seemed inevitable, but I was wrong. EVERYONE at CBS selected the Vikings, except for me.
CBS Sports
Considering the present trend, I might need to prohibit myself from forecasting NFC North games for the rest of the season.
Forecasts Record
Straight up in Week 3: 11-5
SU overall: 37-11
Against the spread in Week 3: 7-9
ATS overall: 24-24
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he’s not engaged in one of those activities, he’s probably eating some Irish Stew while drinking a pint of Guinness.
