NLCS Preview: Can Jackson Chourio and the Brewers upset Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers?

  • October 9, 2026

With the Phillies, Cubs, Braves, and Padres all eliminated from postseason contention, we are left with a heavyweight showdown. The top two seeds in the National League are set to face off in a highly anticipated rematch of last autumn’s NLCS.

It is the Dodgers matching up against the Brewers, battling for the ultimate prize of a World Series berth. Here is how the matchup shapes up.

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Dodgers: Los Angeles rode its elite starting rotation past Atlanta in the NLDS, posting a superb 1.69 ERA across 21 ⅓ frames. Outstanding performances from Tarik Skubal in Game 1 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 3 set the tone. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow ground through a wild but productive Game 4, leaving Blake Snell’s brief 3 ⅔-inning stint in Game 2 as the lone setback. On the offensive side, an experienced lineup contributed just enough punch, sparked by crucial home runs from seasoned veterans Kiké Hernández, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy. Though far from a flawless display, the Dodgers secured the necessary wins in the opening round to keep their back-to-back championship hopes alive.

Brewers: By clinching the NLDS in Game 4 at Petco Park, Milwaukee put an end to an agonizing 12-game playoff road skid. This breakthrough suggests the Brewers are legitimate title contenders, aiming for their first World Series appearance since 1982 and only the second in franchise history. As is custom for Milwaukee, stellar run prevention paved the way, as they limited the Padres to a meager 2.5 runs per contest. This stingy pitching overcame some uncharacteristic defensive lapses, including five errors over the four-game stretch. The offense didn’t put on an explosive show, but they maintained pressure, worked deep counts, and generated enough disruption to eliminate San Diego in a grueling battle.

During the NLDS, this pair struggled immensely, compiling a mere 3-for-29 mark at the plate while striking out 11 times without registering a single extra-base hit against Atlanta. Truthfully, their actual plate appearances looked even more concerning than those statistics suggest. It is hard to imagine Los Angeles advancing to the Fall Classic if these two core producers cannot snap out of their current funks.

It is obvious that Ohtani is dealing with physical limitations, still hampered by the series of late-season injuries that landed him on the injured list for the first time since joining Los Angeles. He appears hesitant and out of rhythm in the batter’s box, leading to rare lapses in plate discipline. These uncharacteristic swings at bad pitches have put him in unfavorable counts and sapped his productivity. While the multi-time MVP remains a threat to take over a game—much like his historic performance in Game 4 of last year’s NLCS—expecting that level of dominance from a clearly compromised version of the superstar might be unrealistic.

Smith’s situation is even more perplexing. After being sidelined for nearly a quarter of the year, he returned in early September and immediately caught fire, recording a stellar .948 OPS over the final month. Lately, however, his normally compact and mechanically sound swing has fallen completely out of sync. Although his defensive leadership and game-calling behind the plate remain elite, he currently lacks the dangerous offensive presence that delivered the championship-clinching home run in the previous postseason.

The young 22-year-old outfielder managed only three hits during the NLDS, but every single one of them was incredibly clutch. He delivered a vital game-tying two-run shot off Robbie Ray in the opener, drove home the game-winner against Mason Miller in Game 2, and ripped a go-ahead single in the deciding Game 4. While those clutch knocks were invaluable, getting more consistent output from him throughout the game is crucial for Milwaukee’s offense to match the Dodgers’ firepower. He stands out as the most gifted batter in the lineup and already holds the franchise record for postseason home runs. During last autumn’s NLCS against Los Angeles, he hit the team’s solitary home run and was one of only two Brewers to record three or more hits. Championship runs require elite talents to deliver in crucial moments, and outside of a fully fit Ohtani, there may not be a more dynamic player on either roster than Chourio.

It's a Dodgers vs. Brewers rematch with a trip to the World Series on the line.

A rematch between the Dodgers and Brewers is set with a World Series ticket on the line.

(Dillon Minshall/Yahoo Sports)

Dodgers: Elite rotation combined with run support

Currently, the starting rotation for Los Angeles looks incredibly trustworthy. However, if the lineup fails to break out, the starters will need assistance to carry the load. The Dodgers must secure at least one of the following: (1) a resurgence from key offensive contributors, (2) an impeccable performance by the relief crew, or (3) flawless outings from an already stellar rotation. The first scenario remains their most probable route to success. Given the abundance of seasoned postseason performers in this lineup, it seems only a matter of time before stars like Betts, Ohtani, Smith, Teoscar Hernández, or Andy Pages find their groove. Their offensive revival will dictate whether L.A. can secure a third consecutive NL pennant. Alternatively, an impenetrable bullpen performance or consecutive masterpieces from Skubal and Yamamoto could also get the job done.

During their 2025 campaign, Milwaukee boasted the lowest chase percentage in baseball at 25.5%. However, when they fell to Los Angeles in last year’s NLCS, that figure ballooned to an alarming 34.5%. While playoff pitching naturally forces more swings outside the zone due to increased velocity and breaking stuff, such a massive jump proved fatal to the Brewers’ scoring efforts.

This season, Milwaukee maintained their elite discipline, pacing the league with a stellar 26.8% chase rate. This sets up a classic clash of styles against a Dodgers staff that excels at inducing bad swings, ranking first overall with a 33.1% opponent chase rate. Key arms like Skubal, Snell, and Yamamoto all ranked in the top tier of the league in this metric.

Refusing to chase out-of-zone pitches, especially on early counts, is vital for this contact-oriented Brewers offense. Forcing L.A.’s starting pitchers to work from behind will elevate pitch counts and expose their bullpen much sooner, which is when Milwaukee can strike. Players like Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, and Andrew Vaughn all demonstrated excellent discipline during the year and must sustain it. Crucially, Chourio, who is typically aggressive, will need to show patience.

During the NLDS, the Dodgers slotted Snell into Game 2 and Yamamoto into Game 3, but a reversal of that order is expected for this round. This adjustment could strain the bullpen if Snell and Glasnow fail to pitch deep into their starts. By separating Snell and Glasnow against Atlanta, Los Angeles avoided overtaxing their relievers on consecutive days. However, with Skubal and Yamamoto poised to make two starts each in this series, the bullpen won’t get those breaks. Finding a way to get deep innings out of Snell will be vital.

During the previous NLCS, Milwaukee’s hitters appeared completely overwhelmed by Los Angeles’ arms. Although this year’s roster features improved depth, they still rely heavily on a high-contact, low-slugging offensive profile. This approach succeeded against San Diego’s pitching staff, but the Dodgers present a much tougher challenge. While Milwaukee’s pitching and defense are certainly elite enough to keep every game within reach, they still need to put runs on the board to win.

The playing field has leveled out.

A year ago, Milwaukee’s hitters were stifled by Los Angeles, while the Ohtani-powered lineup easily navigated the Brewers’ pitching. However, this veteran Dodgers squad appears far more vulnerable now, and Milwaukee’s lineup has made significant strides. For the Brewers to prevail, they must find a way to steal at least one victory in a game started by Skubal or Yamamoto. It is a formidable challenge, but this group has the grit to pull it off, and with Chourio delivering clutch moments, they can dethrone the reigning powerhouse in an epic, seven-game struggle.