Greetings and salutations! Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Victors, your destination for premier weekend wagering suggestions and strategic insights from seasoned handicapper and tournament-play innovator, Noel Michaels. Return each week for a curated selection of top picks crafted to boost your betting success and enhance your earnings. Noel’s expert analysis has been showcased across diverse platforms including the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine, American Turf Monthly, DRF.com, Twinspires.com, USRacing.com, from the trackside paddock at Arlington International Racecourse, and through broadcasts on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA’s Talking Horses, as well as local television stations WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six Introductory Wagering Aids
- Begin with simplicity via an accessible manual on placing wagers on horse races.
- Encounter unfamiliar vocabulary? The realm of horse racing possesses its unique lexicon. Allow us to decode it for your understanding.
- Grasping the concept of speed ratings? Consult this elementary resource on speed ratings to gain comprehensive knowledge.
- Feeling overwhelmed by horse race wagering? Team ABR presents a compilation of recommendations and precautions for newcomers.
- Mistakes are universal in horse race betting; here are eight experiential insights.
- Calculate bet costs beforehand utilizing our Wagering Calculator, powered by NYRA Bets.
The prestigious Kentucky Downs meet is characterized by its condensed duration and significant impact. Let’s promptly engage and seek profitability from two of the all-turf meet’s inaugural Saturday stakes competitions. For this weekend’s selections, we will thoroughly examine the Grade 2 Mint Kentucky Turf Sprint Stakes and the DK Horse Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes. The former serves as a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series event guaranteeing entry into the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, while the latter stands as the most lucrative race hosted in North America excluding the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup. Successfully identifying these winners will position us favorably for a triumphant Saturday at Kentucky Downs. Wishing you the best of fortune.
Saturday, Aug. 30
Kentucky Downs, Race 9, $2,000,000 Mint Kentucky Turf Sprint Stakes, post time 4:52 p.m. ET
The Grade 2 Kentucky Turf Sprint features a complete roster of 12 contenders vying for supremacy over six furlongs, alongside eligible alternates. #7 Arrest Me Red appears exceptionally well-suited for this six-furlong contest at Kentucky Downs, underscored by his allowance triumph on this surface last year, effectively extending his velocity to 6 ½ furlongs for the win. He boasts a record of 10 victories, demonstrating proficiency on both turf and all-weather tracks spanning five to 6 ½ furlongs, although five furlongs might prove slightly short, and 6 ½ furlongs slightly long for his optimal performance. The present six-furlong race on his proven terrain seems ideal. Turf sprint maestro Wesley Ward and jockey Junior Alvarado forge a formidable partnership, evident in their success rate of eight wins from 14 collaborations (57%) since the preceding year. Another entrant with demonstrated prowess on this turf course is #2 Howard Wolowitz, victorious in last year’s Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs under the guidance of Irad Ortiz Jr. His notable defeats have occurred in elite international races, but his return to this venue against this caliber of competition presents a strong opportunity for resurgence with Ortiz reprising his role in the saddle. Earlier this month, Ellis Park hosted a Kentucky Downs Preview Day; the victor of the $250,000 Turf Sprint was #5 Bear River. These Ellis Preview victors are often underestimated upon their return to Kentucky Downs, a phenomenon seemingly affecting Bear River, listed at 20-1 on the morning line. Nonetheless, Bear River secured victory against a competitive field including prominent contenders Coppola and #11 Nobals, meriting careful consideration.
The Play: Wager on #7 Arrest Me Red (5-1) for the win and include him in exacta and trifecta boxed wagers with #2 Howard Wolowitz (7-2) and #5 Bear River (20-1).
Kentucky Downs, Race 10, $3,500,000 DK Horse Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes, post time 5:46 p.m. ET
A complete lineup of 3-year-old contenders has assembled for the Grade 3 Nashville Derby, traversing 1 5/16 miles for the substantial purse of $3.5 million, inclusive of Kentucky-bred funding. The race presents a captivating dynamic, featuring several distinguished graduates from the Triple Crown series including #1 Hill Road (triumphing in the Peter Pan Stakes), #5 Burnham Square (prevailing in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes), #7 Tiztastic (securing victory in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby),#8 Sandman (emerging victorious in the Arkansas Derby), and #11 Final Gambit (conquering the Jeff Ruby Steaks). An impressive competition indeed! The challenge lies in accurately predicting which entrants will excel on the turf and sustain the distance, extending a half-furlong beyond the Kentucky Derby. Among the aforementioned contenders, Sandman’s performance on turf remains the most uncertain, yet his potential upside appears the greatest. His team has consistently affirmed his preference for extended races, presenting an ideal opportunity to demonstrate this. Hill Road emerges as another strong candidate returning to the turf, having debuted successfully on grass in Ireland and benefitting from a reduction in class after facing formidable opponents such as Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza in his recent outings. Lastly, for those seeking a competitor with established turf capabilities, #2 Test Score presents a compelling choice, having secured victory in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes two races prior, complementing his triumph in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes Presented by Keeneland Select earlier this year.
The Play: Wager on #8 Sandman (5-1) for the win and include him in exacta and trifecta boxed wagers with #1 Hill Road (6-1) and #2 Test Score (4-1).
