In the NFL, not every carry is created equal. If we’re focused on discovering the future stars at running back, there’s a particular attribute that deserves our attention. Oddly, it’s a skill that rarely enters the fantasy football discussion.
It isn’t about sheer brawn or lightning speed, though those qualities are undoubtedly helpful.
The attribute I’m highlighting is a running back’s ability to exploit the flanks with force and swiftness.
I’ve been exploring Next Gen Stats and advanced analytics for over ten years, and early on I realized that while runs between the tackles are reliable for maintaining offensive momentum, outside runs are more likely to generate explosive plays.
If you’re deeply engaged in the world of fantasy football, you probably acknowledge that Kyle Shanahan has been instrumental in shaping the running back landscape. He has a knack for transforming relatively unknown players into highly valuable fantasy assets.
To the seasoned fantasy football enthusiasts, you’ll remember that before Kyle, there was his father, Mike Shanahan. For more than a decade in Denver, Gary Kubiak was a key figure at the elder’s side.
No matter where these coaches landed, previously unheralded running backs would suddenly dominate the stat sheets.
Under Mike Shanahan, we witnessed Terrell Davis accumulating over 2,000 yards in Denver and Clinton Portis thriving in both Denver and Washington.
Under Kubiak, Arian Foster recorded a remarkable 2,200-yard season in Houston. Justin Forsett, at 29, astonishingly posted a 1,500-yard season when Kubes was the offensive coordinator in Baltimore.
I could go on with more examples, but the key takeaway is that the Shanahans and Kubiaks favored an outside zone run scheme. The emphasis is on the outside.
But let’s move beyond anecdotes; after all, this is a column focused on advanced statistics.
According to Next Gen Stats, while running backs had an average of around 4.4 yards per carry on both inside and outside runs in 2024, there was a clear distinction in how those gains were achieved.
Inside run attempts had an explosive run rate (10+ yards) of 9.7%, whereas outside runs had an explosive run rate of 11.0%. Although outside runs can lead to more tackles for loss and negative plays, they also result in more substantial gains.
Additionally, even though running backs across the league split their runs roughly evenly between inside and outside, of the top 15 rushers last year, 10 favored outside runs over runs between the tackles.
Of the five who opted for more inside runs, Kyren Williams plays for Sean McVay (regarded as one of the top run-game architects in the NFL), and Jonathan Taylor found himself in Anthony Richardson Sr.’s RPO-heavy scheme. I’d argue that Taylor’s innate talent allowed him to excel despite this and perform at a level above what a typical back could achieve. The other three top running backs who favored inside runs were Josh Jacobs, Chuba Hubbard, and Rico Dowdle.
Like any other statistic or skill, there are always exceptions. However, by scheme, talent, or athleticism, the most effective running backs often find ways to gain yards on the outside.
Applying these insights to this year’s running backs and combining it with my RB charting, let’s identify some potential sleepers, buy-low candidates, and players to be wary of.
Buy/Hold
Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars
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I’ve consistently argued that the rumors of ETN’s decline have been overstated, according to my charting. He was running behind a subpar offensive line and within an even worse run scheme last year. Despite that, he proved to be among the league’s best outside zone runners, which is remarkable.
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I have no idea what Doug Pederson’s coaching emphasized in those outside zone runs; they seemed fundamentally flawed. The Jags rarely assigned a backside blocker last year, yet their backs were frequently cutting back into those unblocked defenders during run plays. With Liam Coen at the helm, the scheme appeared much more refined in Week 1.
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Disregard the Tank Bigsby trade for the moment; Etienne ran for 143 yards despite primarily running between the tackles. His 56.3% inside run rate contrasted sharply with the rest of the team. Bhayshul Tuten ran outside on 66% of his plays, and Bigsby did so on 80% of his. Expect a similar proportion moving forward for Etienne, which could signal sustained success.
Ashton Jeanty, Raiders
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I’m conflicted on this one. In Week 1, the Raiders bafflingly used him outside on only 42.1% of his rush attempts. Despite his obvious talent as an outside runner, I want to say that they won’t keep asking him to run between the tackles at this rate … but I’m honestly unsure.
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For now, I’m choosing to have faith in Chip Kelly and Pete Carroll that they will adjust their game plan for Jeanty.
Breece Hall, Jets
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He’s another player I’ve been championing. The overall atmosphere was questionable, but the charting painted a positive picture. He stood out as one of the best outside runners in 2024.
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His 107 rushing yards on 19 carries in Week 1 wasn’t just luck. He ran to the outside on 57.9% of his runs in Week 1, averaging a solid 6.91 yards per carry on those attempts. We’re hoping that the Jets coaching staff recognizes the potential and maintains this level of outside runs for Hall.
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He also proved to be an excellent pass blocker, suggesting that he should remain a constant presence on the field during passing downs.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts
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With a competent NFL quarterback leading the offense, JT is free to focus on what he does best: exploding to the outside.
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His outside run rate increased from 41.9% last year to 55.6% with Daniel Jones under center this year. The possibilities are endless with Taylor executing designed run plays rather than being forced into the low-percentage RPO plays we saw last year, when he was essentially required to carry the entire load.
Sleepers
Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt, Commanders
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He only participated in 29% of the snaps in Week 1, but you can expect that number to grow as Jeremy McNichols is likely phased out.
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The artist known as Bill had three explosive runs (30% explosive run rate), and two of those were to the outside.
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Around 60% of his runs were to the outside, resulting in a noteworthy 11.8 yards per carry.
Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars
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The team traded away Tank Bigsby, which suggests that Jacksonville is committed to running outside, an area where Bigsby struggles and Tuten excels.
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I charted Tuten this summer and concluded that, while he was among the worst inside runners I studied, he was by far the best outside zone runner I observed.
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Tuten ran to the outside on 66.7% of his attempts in Week 1, generating a meager 1.5 yards per carry, but expect those numbers to improve as the season progresses.
Sell/Beware
Alvin Kamara, Saints
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As one of my all-time favorite players, I regret having to place him in this category. However, with Klint Kubiak’s departure, Kellen Moore is employing the 30-year-old back in outside runs far less frequently, reducing his rate from 73.7% to 54.6% this year.
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Kamara averaged 4.2 yards per carry on outside runs last year and 4.0 yards per carry between the hashes. The split was even more apparent in Week 1, with a staggering 82.2% of his rushing yards coming from the outside, where he averaged 6.17 yards per carry. On inside runs, he averaged only 1.6 yards per carry last week.
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There is reason to be concerned about a decline in efficiency and potential health issues due to his age.
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
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He was a preseason favorite for me, and I couldn’t stop praising Walker, believing that he would be a perfect fit for Kubiak’s outside zone run scheme. After just one week, I’m completely shaken.
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Whether it’s due to an injury or if the team truly believes Zach Charbonnet is the better back (which he isn’t), Walker played only 40% of the snaps compared to Charbonnet’s 58%.
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What’s even more perplexing is that both backs ran inside/outside at the same rate. As previously mentioned, Kamara had an outside run rate well over 70% last year. The fact that both Walker and Charbonnet had an even 50/50 split inside/outside is drastically inconsistent with Kubiak’s scheme.
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We need to assess Walker’s health or determine whether this was just a one-game anomaly. If we see the same kind of playing time and directional splits in another game, we should seriously consider selling.
