INDIANAPOLIS — The 2026 men’s collegiate basketball semifinals showcase several of the strongest contenders from this year’s regular season.
Arizona maintained the top position in the AP poll for nine consecutive weeks, achieving a perfect 23-0 start, a new record for their program. The Wildcats are set to compete against Michigan, the squad that ultimately displaced them from the No. 1 spot. Michigan has averaged an impressive 95.3 points per game throughout the NCAA tournament, marking the highest scoring average by a team reaching the semifinals since Kentucky’s 97.0 in 1993.
These two teams, along with Illinois, have advanced to the Final Four by securing victories in every NCAA tournament contest with a double-digit margin. This achievement represents the first instance since 1973 where three teams have accomplished such a feat, according to ESPN Research. The Fighting Illini are slated to commence Saturday’s action against UConn, a team vying for its third national title within four seasons. The Huskies have prevailed in their last two encounters with the Illini: once during their 2024 championship run in the Elite Eight and previously in a non-conference matchup held at Madison Square Garden in November.
Which teams will secure their spot in Monday’s national championship match? ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf analyze the factors – and key individual performances – that could determine the outcomes of both games.
Who stands out as the pivotal player on the court this Saturday?
Borzello’s view: Tarris Reed Jr.
Reed’s transformation into an impactful force, reminiscent of Wilt Chamberlain, throughout the NCAA tournament has fundamentally altered UConn’s dynamic. He has been the most dominant performer in the bracket over the last two weeks, highlighted by a 31-point, 27-rebound display against Furman in the opening round and surpassing AP Player of the Year Cameron Boozer in their Elite Eight clash with Duke. Reed’s tournament averages include 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.3 blocks, all while shooting an efficient 60% from the field.
Reed will need to assert control over the painted area, both offensively and defensively, against Illinois. The Fighting Illini will attempt to stifle his post-scoring prowess with 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic and 7-2 Zvonimir Ivisic – these players’ capacity to stretch the floor and hit 3-pointers might draw Reed away from the basket on defense. In their initial meeting, he saw only 15 minutes of play due to an ankle injury, failing to score on three attempts and accumulating four fouls.
UConn cannot afford a repeat of that performance.
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Tarris Reed Jr.’s massive 31-point, 27-rebound game propels UConn
Tarris Reed Jr. unleashes career highs with 31 points and 27 rebounds to lift the UConn Huskies to the second round.
Medcalf’s view: Koa Peat
As a 6-foot-8, 235-pound freshman, Arizona requires Peat’s specific blend of stature, talent, and skill to overcome Michigan. Fortuitously for the Wildcats, Peat has been delivering some of his most impressive performances as the season nears its conclusion, averaging 14.8 points and converting 53% of his two-point attempts over the last 10 games. This contest pits two outstanding teams against each other, collectively featuring six players projected to be first-round NBA draft selections.
Peat will be tasked with providing staunch defense against one of college basketball’s largest frontcourts, simultaneously needing to generate crucial interior offense that the Wildcats will demand to match an opponent renowned for their scoring in the paint.
It’s challenging to envision Michigan securing a victory without an impactful outing from All-American Yaxel Lendeborg. A similar argument could be made for Arizona and Peat, who combined for only eight points in the team’s two defeats.
What elements will decide the UConn-Illinois outcome?
Borzello’s view: Success from beyond the arc.
Illinois has consistently been among the nation’s most aggressive teams in attempting 3-pointers throughout the season, though the Illini’s reliance on perimeter shots lessened as the season progressed. They still rank within the top 15 nationally for both 3-pointers made per game and 3-point attempt rate, but after hitting double-digit 3s in 18 of their prior 22 games, they have achieved this only once since March 3 – and shot a poor 3-for-17 from long range against Iowa in the Elite Eight.
For UConn, the emphasis is less on shot volume and more on shot conversion. On paper, Solo Ball, Braylon Mullins, and Alex Karaban form as formidable a shooting trio as exists in college basketball. However, in recent performances, Ball has connected on just 14.3% of his 3-point attempts over his last six games, Mullins is at 18.5% from deep in his last eight contests, and Karaban managed only 1-for-6 from 3-point range against Duke.
UConn doesn’t necessarily need to outshoot Illinois due to their anticipated interior advantage, but consistent shooting provides a significant boost to UConn’s offensive efficiency.
Medcalf’s view: Illinois’ effectiveness in containing Reed.
While Mullins sank the decisive 3-pointer against Duke and UConn’s second-half defensive intensity and offensive execution fueled their comeback, the Huskies’ victory would have been impossible without Reed’s significant contributions: 26 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks.
Illinois possesses considerable length near the basket, a characteristic few teams can rival. Yet, if Reed maintains his dominant form witnessed throughout the NCAA tournament, it will open up more opportunities for Mullins, Karaban, and their backcourt partners to contribute offensively – but the Huskies also depend on Reed to be a defensive linchpin in the paint. Opponents have managed to convert only 25% of their attempts near the rim when facing Reed during the NCAA tournament.
What key factors will determine the Arizona-Michigan game?
Borzello’s view: Interior scoring.
As college basketball increasingly shifts towards larger lineups and post dominance, Arizona and Michigan are at the forefront of this trend. Both squads boast substantial size, play with physicality, and aim to impose their will offensively through sheer force. Arizona ranks fifth nationally in points scored in the paint per game, second in two-point attempts per game, third in free throw attempts per game, and is among the top 10 in offensive rebound percentage. Michigan sits second in two-point field goal percentage, third in two-point percentage defense, and ranks within the top 20 for both paint points per game and second-chance points per game.
In their Sweet 16 matchup against Arkansas, Arizona tallied 60 points in the paint and 30 from the free throw line. The Wildcats subsequently outscored Purdue by a combined 28 points in those categories during the Elite Eight. Conversely, Michigan executed an impressive transition display against Tennessee, a feat not typically associated with a team of the Wolverines’ stature.
The critical question is whether either team can establish superiority around the basket. That will be the deciding factor.
Medcalf’s view: External defensive pressure.
The success of both teams’ interior offenses will largely hinge on what transpires on the perimeter.
Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries are most effective when driving to the basket, drawing additional defenders, and creating scoring opportunities for their teammates. Therefore, Michigan’s efforts to slow down an Arizona team proficient near the rim must commence with disrupting the Wildcats’ primary ball-handlers.
Conversely, Arizona will be limited in sending extra defensive help to neutralize Michigan’s interior threats if the Wolverines present a potent perimeter threat: Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney, Nimari Burnett, and Yaxel Lendeborg have all converted at least 37% of their 3-point attempts. However, if the Wolverines struggle from long range – they hit just 28% of their 3-pointers in their three losses this season – the Wildcats’ defensive task will become considerably simpler.
Final Four Game Projections
UConn versus Illinois
Borzello predicts: UConn, 74-72
Medcalf predicts: UConn, 77-73
Arizona versus Michigan
Borzello predicts: Arizona, 82-80
Medcalf predicts: Michigan, 78-76
