This weekend (Sat., June 21, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan, for UFC Baku. Who’s up for some early afternoon fisticuffs? What if I told you the main event was a guaranteed banger featuring former champion Jamahal Hill and recent title challenger Khalil Rountree?
There’s also at least four excellent Lightweight action fighters and a bonafide Top 10 contender in Curtis Blaydes mixed through the card, making for an above-average “Fight Night” event regardless of the timing. Plus, while I’ll admit to knowing very little about Azerbaijan, that section of the world tends to love combat sports, so I’m willing to bet we’re in for an electric crowd, too.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
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Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes (-265) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+215)
Best Win for Blaydes? Jailton Almeida For Kuniev? Anthony Hamilton
Current Streak: Blaydes lost his last bout, whereas Kuniev debuts having won his last bout
X-Factor: It’s a huge step up in competition for Kuniev
How these two match up: I cannot help but feel this match up as a whole is disrespectful to Curtis Blaydes.
He may have a habit of coming up short in the biggest fights of his career, but Blaydes is damn fine and clearly elite Heavyweight. He’s a smashing wrestler with pretty solid stand up skills, and unlike most of the division, he can maintain his pace for 15 minutes without issue.
Kuniev, meanwhile, is a former PFL contender who found his way to the UFC via Contenders Series. He has a background in Wushu Sanda and has finished most of his opponents. He’s a worthy pickup, but should he really be debuting against a top-ranked contender still in the prime of his career?
Likely not. UFC is desperate for a new Heavyweight contender, so the promotion routinely just throws relative newcomers to the wolves in hopes of something interesting happening. The proverbial puncher’s chance will always exist among big men, but Blaydes should have a massive advantage on the canvas that allows him to dominate.
Prediction: Blaydes via decision
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Lightweight: Nazim Sadykhov (-395) vs. Nikolas Motta (+310)
Best Win for Sadykhov? Ismael Bonfim For Motta? Maheshate Hayisaer
Current Streak: Sadykhov is unbeaten in four UFC appearances, whereas Motta has won two in a row
X-Factor: Motta does have solid punching power
How these two match up: Once more, I’m not sure I quite “get” this match up.
Sadykhov is clearly a very talented Lightweight. The Serra-Longo standout has showed excellent skill both on the feet and the floor in his short UFC career, as well as quality athleticism. He should be closing into a shot at the Top 15 after the Bonfim stoppage, but instead he’s taking a step backwards opposite Motta. Brazil’s Motta is definitely a tough customer, a scrapper with good power in his hands. However, he’s 3-2 (1) inside the Octagon and has yet to defeat anyone particularly notable.
That’s not to say he’s without a chance, but he’s on the wrong side of the skill equation here. Sadykhov is the better kickboxer and better wrestler, giving him plenty of avenues to success. Gritty or not, it feels like Sadykhov is going to find the chin and produce another big finish sooner than later.
Prediction: Sadykhov via knockout
Featherweight: Muhammad Naimov (-225) vs. Bogdan Grad (+185)
Best Win for Naimov? Jamie Mullarkey For Grad? Lucas Alexander
Current Streak: Naimov won his last bout, whereas Grad won his UFC debut earlier this year
X-Factor: Grad has a very high work rate
How these two match up: There’s solid potential here for fun stand up exchanges and grappling scrambles alike.
Naimov, representing Tajikistan, has found most of his success on the feet, including a standout debut win over Jamie Mullarkey and controversial decision victory over Nathaniel Wood. “Hillman” will definitely turn to the wrestling when needed, however, like in his latest victory over Kaan Olfi.
Austria’s Grad is still rather new to the UFC, having scored his contract via Contenders Series just last year. The name of his game is activity, as Grad strikes and wrestles at a wild pace. He throws himself into the danger zone to do so, but pace is a valid weapon in itself.
In this bout, Naimov’s more powerful striking and adaptability will be tested against Grad’s relentless pressure. I see Grad as having the pure wrestling edge, though Naimov’s more fluid striking could allow him to time shots reactively and take top position anyway. It also becomes a question of volume vs. precision, as well as whether or not Naimov can really hurt Grad with his shots.
With a lot of elements to consider, why not go with the better wrestler who throws more shots? It’s not like Naimov is historically all that hard to hit himself. Likely, it starts out in his favor, but Grad’s nonstop push should wear him down over time.
Prediction: Grad via decision
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Lightweight: Myktybek Orolbai (-110) vs. Tofiq Musayev (+125)
Best Win for Orolbai? Elves Brenner For Musayev? Patricky Pitbull
Current Streak: Orolbai suffered his first UFC defeat last time out, whereas Musayev debuts having won two straight in RIZIN
X-Factor: Musayev is already 35 years old
How these two match up: Banger. Banger. BANGER!
Orolbai enters having lost perhaps the very best fight of 2024, an absurd scrap versus Mateusz Rebecki. He’s a dominant wrestler with a shotgun blast of a right hand, a recipe for success since cage fighting was called No Holds Barred. Still just 27 years old, he remains a serious Lightweight prospect. Musayev, meanwhile, is an extremely exciting Lightweight talent who’s fought high-level opposition in Bellator and RIZIN. He’s a great wrestler himself, an explosive athlete with ripping kicks and ferocious hooks.
He’ll be representing his home country of Azerbaijan proudly here.
What happens when two wrestlers who only know how to come forward face off? We get a beautiful train wreck. I would name Musayev as the “better” striker, but both men rely on fast-twitch muscle and aggression more than systematic kickboxing. Orolbai is better at blending his wrestling and stand up together, which could be a factor … as could all the damage he took in his last appearance.
Ultimately, it’s hard to see a surefire war and go with the older, more shopworn fighter. I’m not saying Musayev is washed — I’m very glad he’s finally on the UFC roster! — but he’s fighting a blue chip prospect, and his own peak came around 2019. The odds are against him, even if his power keeps him a live dog until the final bell.
Prediction: Orolbai via decision
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 27-18
LIVE! Stream UFC Baku On ESPN+
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CROSSROADS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) crashes Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Sat., June 21, 2025, with UFC Baku. Former 205-pound champion, Jamahal Hill, collides with veteran “War Horse,” Khalil Rountree Jr., in a blistering main event mashup scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Baku’s co-main event, No. 11-ranked lightweight contender, Rafael Fiziev, locks horns with 155-pound striking sensation, Ignacio Bahamondes, with a spot in the lightweight Top 10 up for grabs.
