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Bill Connelly
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Bill Connelly
ESPN Staff Writer
- Bill Connelly contributes articles for ESPN. His areas of expertise include collegiate gridiron, association football, and racquet sports. He joined ESPN’s team in 2019.
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Ryan O’Hanlon
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Ryan O’Hanlon
ESPN.com writer
- Ryan O’Hanlon is an ESPN.com staff member. He also authored “Net Gains: Unveiling Analytics Innovations in the Beautiful Game.”
Among dedicated followers of soccer, a common viewpoint suggests that definitive observations regarding a team’s proficiency become viable upon reaching the tenth fixture in the English Premier League calendar.
The sport’s inherent variability, marked by unpredictable scoring incidents, renders conversion rates susceptible to broad variations from one contest to the next. This characteristic extends to individual player contributions and collective team efforts. When compounded by schedules that exhibit imbalances and discrepancies across different teams, ultimately normalizing only towards the culmination of the season, the potential for premature or unfounded judgments prior to the threshold of late October increases significantly.
Nevertheless, with the onset of costume-themed festivities imminent, a certain degree of insights into the Premier League landscape has undoubtedly taken shape. The central challenge lies in distinguishing genuine patterns from transient anomalies.
To address this analytical hurdle, Bill Connelly and Ryan O’Hanlon have reconvened to deliver the initial iteration of their Premier League team strength assessments since the commencement of the campaign. Adhering to their established method, each expert independently ranked every squad within the league, from top to bottom. These individual assessments were subsequently synthesized, averaged, and distilled into a consolidated table.
To what extent has the competitive hierarchy been reshaped during the intervening months? Continue reading for the comprehensive analysis.
The revised Premier League team assessments
The previous evaluation took place in August, preceding the season’s inaugural matches. The re-evaluated ranks – representing the synthesized viewpoints of Bill and Ryan – are presented alongside the pre-season projections, current point totals, and goal disparities as recorded in the Premier League standings.
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Arsenal: Currently occupying the leading position
The following assertions accurately describe Arsenal’s present condition:
• They’ve already fulfilled three of their most challenging confrontations: away matches against Liverpool and Newcastle, and a home fixture versus Manchester City.
• William Saliba has been present for approximately 65% of possible playing durations.
• Bukayo Saka has participated in approximately 55% of the available match time.
• Martin Ødegaard has been involved in only 32% of the possible minutes on the pitch.
• Kai Havertz has accumulated just 4.9% of potential playing time.
• Viktor Gyökeres has recorded a mere two goals, excluding those derived from penalty kicks.
Notwithstanding the validity of these observations, the subsequent points also hold true:
• Their offensive output is the second-highest in the Premier League, registering 14 goals.
• Their defensive record is the most robust in the Premier League, having conceded only 3 goals.
• Their goal differential is the most favorable in the Premier League, standing at plus-9.
• Their expected goal differential is the most advantageous in the Premier League, assessed at plus-7.5.
• Their point total is the highest in the Premier League, amounting to 16.
1:20
Can Arsenal cope without Martin Ødegaard?
Gab Marcotti and Don Hutchison explore Arsenal’s capabilities in the absence of their captain, Martin Ødegaard, following his recent injury setback.
Arsenal has performed demonstrably better than all other teams in the first seven games. Unless there’s a belief that Arsenal’s key players aren’t as competent as they seem, or that Gyökeres will experience a downturn in scoring frequency, Mikel Arteta’s team is poised to improve even further.
While the Premier League title isn’t guaranteed due to the long season ahead, the likelihood of Arsenal securing the championship is increasingly higher than that of the remaining teams combined. — O’Hanlon
Liverpool: A project in continued development
What might a steady state look like for Liverpool, given their substantial investments, when or if it occurs? The season’s initial phase has been characterized by relentless intensity.
The reigning champions relinquished a pair of leads, ultimately succumbing to Crystal Palace via penalty shootout in the Community Shield. They also surrendered three additional leads, albeit securing victories over Bournemouth and Newcastle. They managed narrow wins against Arsenal and Burnley late in those contests, only to then concede yet another two-goal advantage in an eventual Champions League triumph over Atlético Madrid. This was followed by two additional one-goal victories, subsequent late-game breakdowns, and a series of three consecutive one-goal losses. Of their 11 contests, 10 have been decided by a single goal margin, with the remaining match remaining undecided until its final stages.
These circumstances have been taxing, resulting in Liverpool’s diminished status as a projected frontrunner in both the Premier League and Champions League competitions. Ranking them third in this assessment almost seemed generous.
1:32
Are concerns emerging over Arne Slot?
Steve Nicol and Craig Burley examine Liverpool’s performance since the season’s commencement, arguing that Arne Slot must confront certain unresolved questions.
Situations could certainly be more dire, but until the team’s transitional defensive schemes are suitably refined, achieving their objectives will be an uphill battle. To date in Premier League matches, they occupy the 11th position in expected goals conceded per shot, while managing to position two or more defenders between the shooter and the goal only 68.6% of the time (ranking 20th).
The primary metrics remain relatively stable; they’re positioned first in possession percentage (61.3%), first in combined progressive carries and passes, and third in goal tallies, etc. However, as was anticipated after acquiring a contingent of new offensive players and two attack-oriented fullbacks, the team’s balance is disrupted. Rectifying this imbalance will prove challenging over the season’s initial portion, marked by continuous matches and a series of international breaks.
How long might it require for Arne Slot to fully integrate the new attacking elements — Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, combined: one goal and one assist in 640 minutes — while also mitigating the defensive vulnerabilities? — Connelly
Tottenham: Positioned at ninth?
Tottenham is presently on course to conclude the season with 71 goals scored, 27 goals conceded, and 76 points acquired. During the preceding season, those statistics would have placed them third, first, and second, respectively. Their extrapolated plus-44 goal differential would trail only slightly behind Liverpool’s league-leading and championship-winning figure from the prior season.
Nevertheless, our assessment positions Spurs at ninth, maintaining their pre-season rank. Given our joint selection of Arsenal as the league’s top team, are our North London biases skewing our evaluations? Are they truly performing at a Champions League caliber? And didn’t this team, realistically speaking, conclude the previous season in 17th place?
They did, indeed, and their underlying data this season is even more concerning.
Under Ange Postecoglu’s direction in the previous season, Spurs generated 1.6 expected goals per match while conceding 1.7. This season, defensive performance has improved considerably (1.3 xG conceded per match), yet the attack has diminished to 1.1 xG per match. Hence, the prior season’s xG differential was minus-0.1 per match; the current season’s stands at minus-0.2.
Therefore, Tottenham’s markedly enhanced results can largely be attributed to unsustainable finishing – observed across both ends of the pitch. They are surpassing their xG by a larger margin than any other team in the league, both offensively and defensively.
Unless Thomas Frank has developed a previously unknown tactic that completely deceives the models that governed decision-making at his former club, Brentford, Spurs are likely to experience a reversal of fortune in due course.
According to Opta’s power ratings, they’ve also encountered the second-easiest set of opponents in the league thus far. The upcoming months could present considerable challenges. — O’Hanlon
Bournemouth or Palace: Which ascent possesses greater longevity?
Bournemouth is continuously edging closer to elite status. They accomplished their second top-10 finish in the top-tier league during the 2024-25 season, coming close to even greater heights – they were within reach of a Champions League qualification before injuries and insufficient depth caused a late-season decline.
Roughly 20% into the current season, they’re only two points away from the top spot, having defeated Spurs and losing only to Liverpool. Meanwhile, Palace has secured two trophies within the last five months, triumphing over Liverpool twice and not suffering their first league defeat until October 5th.
Neither team can be deemed particularly fortunate in securing their current top-six positions; both rank within the top eight for xG differential, and neither is substantially exceeding these xG figures. Our ranking above places Bournemouth slightly higher, and they did introduce a number of new players (while also losing some) in pursuit of increased squad depth.
However, can they sustain this level of performance for another 31 games, given their demanding style of play? They lead the league in ball recoveries (46.4 per game) and total defensive actions (117.0 per game), engaging in the most possessions per game (88.7) while allowing the fewest passes per defensive action (9.7), or PPDA – a strong indicator of defensive intensity.
Palace isn’t nearly as aggressive, for better or worse. They rank 18th in PPDA (14.6), initiating only 4.5% of possessions in the attacking third (20th). Nevertheless, no team excels more at generating high-quality opportunities from limited possession.
Oliver Glasner’s squad is flourishing with a nearly old-fashioned defend-and-counter strategy. It’s less visually appealing and exciting than Bournemouth’s approach, but on the 10th anniversary of the archetypal defensive-counter success story – Leicester City’s unexpected title run – and in an era emphasizing energy conservation throughout lengthy, arduous seasons, might this approach prove to be the winning formula? — Connelly
Manchester United: Gaining traction?
Over a sufficiently long duration, the projected and actual goal tallies for a team tend to converge. However, in the short term, numerous anomalies can occur. After seven matches, 14 Premier League teams have produced scoring outputs within two goals of their expected values, while four others deviate by no more than four goals. Nevertheless, there exist two significant outliers early in the season. We’ve already examined Tottenham’s case; they’ve scored 5.5 more goals than their xG totals would suggest. Conversely, Manchester United is generating a league-leading 2.0 xG per match yet is tied for eighth in actual goals scored.
It can never be said that United has abandoned their penchant for irony. The club faced skepticism during the offseason for acquiring both Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha following seasons where their finishing was unusually effective (resulting in inflated transfer fees). The duo combined to attempt shots valued at 20.9 xG last season – certainly a robust output – yet scored 36 actual goals, exceeding expectations by 72% – an unsustainable rate.
This season, in 948 league minutes, they’ve attempted shots valued at 3.3 xG, a rate reasonably close to last season’s. However, they’ve only scored once between them, an almost symmetrical underperformance of 70%. (Bruno Fernandes has contributed to this trend, scoring only twice from shots valued at 3.7 xG.)
1:34
Does Joshua Zirkzee have a future at Man United?
Gab Marcotti and Don Hutchison engage in a discussion regarding Joshua Zirkzee’s future at Manchester United, following reports of loan interest from Roma.
That’s the unfavorable (and somewhat amusing) news. The encouraging news is that this situation is unlikely to persist indefinitely. As the xG metrics revert to a more predictable pattern, the fact that United ranks first in shot attempts (15.7 per match), second in shots on target (4.9), second in total shots valued at 0.2 xG or greater (2.6 per match), third in xG differential (+0.6), fifth in set-piece scoring margin (+1), and even third in shots conceded (9.1 per match) will likely take precedence over Ruben Amorim’s unwavering adherence to his preferred 3-4-2-1 formation.
While United isn’t attempting unusually high-quality shots – ranking only seventh in xG per shot (and 20th in xG conceded per shot) – their dominance in shot quantity is likely to yield favorable results over the long term. — Connelly
Brighton and Villa: Mired in stagnation
Prior to the season’s commencement, Aston Villa and Brighton appeared to be the most plausible contenders to disrupt the established top-five hierarchy. Both teams retained the majority of their pivotal players; the former possesses significant talent and isn’t burdened by Champions League obligations; the latter boasts an array of young talent poised to emerge.
However, Brighton is still awaiting these breakthroughs. Despite the abundance of young talent within the squad, only four goals have been scored by players aged 24 or younger at the time of the match – fewer than six other teams. While the continued contributions of 34-year-old striker Danny Welbeck, more than a decade after securing a Premier League title under Sir Alex Ferguson, is an appealing narrative, the reliance on Welbeck for goals is indicative of the health of the Brighton project. So far, the answer is “yes” — he has scored twice.
Although Brighton has generally performed around league average, Villa’s performance has been considerably worse. After seven matches, only West Ham, Nottingham Forest, and Burnley exhibit poorer expected goal differentials.
The attack has been particularly underwhelming. Despite maintaining possession more frequently than Manchester City this season (57.1%), Villa has generated 6.03 expected goals – fewer than all teams except Burnley. Ollie Watkins has participated in every match, scoring one goal while averaging fewer than two shot attempts per game.
The most alarming aspect is that Villa has yet to face Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, or Chelsea. — O’Hanlon
Will two promoted teams avoid relegation?
At this juncture last season, the three promoted teams (Leicester City, Ipswich, and Southampton) collectively amassed 11 points in 21 games. Only one occupied a relegation position due to poor starts from Crystal Palace and Wolves, and none exhibited even a semblance of competitiveness.
This season, the promoted trio of Sunderland, Leeds United, and Burnley has accumulated 23 points in 21 games. While Burnley hasn’t inspired much confidence regarding their survival prospects – their xG differential of minus-1.2 goals per game is the worst in the league by a substantial margin – the other two appear to be in reasonably stable positions.
We held cautious optimism for both Leeds and Sunderland entering the season. They remained likely relegation candidates – after witnessing all three promoted teams return to the lower division immediately for two consecutive years, it was difficult to envision otherwise – but both teams appeared to possess potential. Leeds seemed capable of forging a decent combination of defensive solidity and rapid counter-attacks, and that’s what they’ve done.
They rank 13th in goals conceded and a more encouraging sixth in xG conceded, indicating that future progression toward the mean could benefit them even further. Additionally, only 13.6% of their opponents’ touches in the attacking third occur within the penalty area, the lowest in the league. This emphatically suggests “defensive organization.”
Their attack is far from exceptional, yet they’re averaging 1.0 goals per game (13th) from 1.1 xG (12th). Their three goals from set pieces also rank fifth in the league, and “defend tenaciously and capitalize on set pieces” is as close to a foolproof recipe for avoiding relegation as one can find.
Sunderland was the least promising of the three promoted teams last season, yet their offseason acquisitions made considerable sense. “The club performed admirably in adding depth, primarily drawing from clubs renowned for developing young talent effectively,” we noted in our August preview. “Add a boost of veteran leadership from [Granit] Xhaka and [Reinildo] Mandava, and the offseason was exceptionally logical.”
New players have contributed 75% of Sunderland’s playing time, all of their assists (and 78% of their chances created), 81% of their ball recoveries, 81% of their progressive carries, 80% of their progressive passes, and 53% of their shot attempts (although only 29% of their goals). This represents a bold chemistry experiment that has yielded only two losses in their first seven matches.
They currently occupy eighth place in the table, and while their xG differential is sixth-worst (not indicative of future performance), A) sixth-worst is still far from relegation form, and B) they’ve accumulated points, holding a seven-point cushion above the relegation zone.
Although the season remains long, both Leeds and Sunderland are performing like Premier League-caliber teams. Even better, some of the incumbent teams they’re attempting to surpass are performing quite the opposite. — Connelly
Which team faces the greatest threat: Forest, Wolves, or West Ham?
If the objective were to avoid relegation, which of these teams would be preferable?
Team A: They have zero wins and only two points, the fewest in the league. However, they seem to trust their coach; at least, he is familiar with the players and was not appointed mid-season. Furthermore, their underlying performance hasn
