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Ryan O’Hanlon
Across their most recent eight fixtures spanning two game weeks, the Premier League’s leading quartet has collectively participated. Can you predict their total points haul?
The answer is six. Out of a possible 24 points, this translates to a dismal average of 0.75 points per match. For comparison, West Ham United currently maintain a 0.77 points-per-game rate. Despite this, they occupy 18th position, and most statistical forecasts assign them a probability well exceeding 50% for demotion.
The situation could, in fact, be more dire than initial figures suggest. In those eight encounters, Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Liverpool jointly recorded no victories. Conversely, West Ham, Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, and Everton collectively secured four wins and accumulated 14 points within the identical timeframe.
Stepping back from criticizing the leading quartet for a moment reveals additional striking observations. Over the last fourteen days, no Premier League club has achieved more than a single win. Extending this to the past three weeks, the same holds true: not one Premier League side has claimed multiple victories.
As previously discussed in an article from a few weeks prior, the Premier League faces a systemic challenge, largely due to a noticeable dip in offensive prowess, but more significantly, because the overall standard of the average squad has reached an unprecedented peak. Consequently, supporter groups nationwide express frustration as their teams unexpectedly yield points to opponents they would typically overcome.
Therefore, to gain a clearer understanding of the Premier League’s current landscape, we are unveiling a widely popular, thirteen-letter, two-word concept: power rankings! This marks the debut installment of ESPN’s Premier League Power Rankings, offering our regular evaluation of the genuinely most formidable and struggling squads.
How the Premier League Power Rankings work
Initially, a word of caution: Refrain from employing this compilation to outwit wagering platforms. Ultimately, you will face defeat.
Moving on to the essence of the evaluations presented herein. This collection is not engineered to be the definitive or most precise power ranking ever conceived; rather, its objective is to establish a system that is straightforward and easily graspable, yet retains a degree of foresight. Its utility stems from juxtaposing these rankings with the official league standings, identifying discrepancies, and subsequently investigating the underlying causes.
Regarding the quantitative measures underpinning these team assessments, four distinct factors are utilized. Foremost is the club’s non-penalty expected-goal difference, recognized as the most effective individual indicator for forecasting subsequent outcomes. Secondly, the projected squad valuation from Transfermarkt is incorporated, a metric frequently demonstrated to possess its own prognostic capabilities. This can be conceptualized as a proxy for a team’s inherent skill.
While these alone would suffice for a robust power-ranking framework, merely stating “expected goals and financial worth” lacks engagement, even if typically accurate. Collaborating with Kevin Cole from Unexpected Points, I investigated various additional metrics, identifying two that marginally enhanced predictive accuracy and resonated logically with our understanding of football dynamics.
The primary addition is PPDA, representing passes conceded per defensive maneuver predominantly within the opponent’s territory. This stands as the predominant gauge of a team’s high-pressure strategy. My hypothesis for its predictive benefit is that sides adept at disrupting play in advanced areas can achieve commanding displays unattainable by less aggressive pressing teams. Furthermore, these teams exhibit a reduced susceptibility to being overwhelmed.
The secondary factor is the pass success rate beyond the final offensive third – a statistic I first encountered on the Markstats website. This can be perceived as the counterpart to PPDA, signifying a team’s capacity to endure an adversary’s pressing tactics. Such teams are less prone to collapse or stagnation, and this metric likely also signals the level of aggression opponents employ against them. Should opposing sides hesitate to pressure a team during their build-up phases, resulting in a superior completion rate, then that tells us something about the team’s caliber.
For clarity, our evaluation system exclusively incorporates these four data points. Initially, they are all utilized to score teams on a hundred-point scale, subsequently transforming these scores into what amounts to a forecasted goal difference for a typical game. Below is the presentation of our rankings:
The conclusion here is rather apparent. Considering their fundamental performance across 22 fixtures, Arsenal stands alone, followed by a cluster of four other clubs. Their Champions League record also remains flawless.
Unquestionably, this side represents the global elite at this moment:
It’s noteworthy that Manchester City appears considerably nearer to Arsenal in these power evaluations compared to their position in the expected-goals standings. The explanation? City commenced the season possessing the league’s second-highest squad valuation, and they are successfully distributing almost 90% of their passes in areas outside the offensive third.
When questioned directly by a reporter about the potential appointment of a successor, it implies… well, it signifies numerous things, largely unrelated to Arne Slot or Liverpool, and more reflective of broader global circumstances. Nevertheless, such inquiries typically arise only when there’s an increasing degree of discontent surrounding the team under your management.
Even with a run of four consecutive draws in their recent Premier League outings, Liverpool has demonstrated itself to be among the league’s stronger contenders across their last ten fixtures:
Much of the current discontent concerning the squad, in my view, is rooted more in a stylistic disapproval than in a genuine assessment of their quality.
Liverpool has generated sufficient scoring opportunities to secure victories in the majority of their recent encounters, yet supporters are accustomed to Jürgen Klopp’s teams exhibiting dynamic, end-to-end play and securing games with high goal tallies. Arne Slot’s contemporary iteration of Liverpool, while potentially efficient, no longer delivers the kind of intense, ‘heavy-metal’ football synonymous with Klopp’s tenure.
It’s unusual for me to pen such a remark: thus far this season, seven Premier League outfits have adopted a more intense pressing approach than Liverpool.
Notwithstanding an expected-goal difference more akin to Leeds than Liverpool, Chelsea’s evaluation sits not far behind the reigning champions. This is attributable to their expansive, gifted roster and a proactive, ball-dominant methodology that has historically yielded positive outcomes in the Premier League.
It remains to be seen if this trend persists under incoming manager Liam Rosenior, whose squad maintained under 50% possession and registered merely six attempts during a fortunate two-nil triumph against Brentford in the prior week.
0:31
Rosenior admits he has to ‘earn’ support from Chelsea fans
Liam Rosenior speaks after Chelsea’s 1-0 win over Pafos FC in the Champions League.
While the recent triumph against Manchester City was significant and commanding, I’m uncertain if it provided substantial new insights into Manchester United — or, more precisely, into the squad managed by Michael Carrick.
City entered that fixture fielding what I’d describe as a defensive unit of, at best, fourth-string quality, and United repeatedly capitalized on the weaknesses of those four individuals by maintaining a deep defensive line. This strategy will likely not be viable in the majority of upcoming games, and even when it is, those adversaries will possess a significantly more robust defensive contingent than City did.
Nevertheless, this squad performed rather competently under Ruben Amorim. Should Carrick manage to sustain this momentum, it arguably ranks among the top five teams in a league poised to secure five Champions League berths in the forthcoming season.
Newcastle possesses a solitary edge over Manchester United within our evaluative framework: they’ve demonstrated superior ball control while delivering comparable performance standards and matching pressing aggression.
Manchester United is achieving its poorest pre-final-third pass completion rate in the last nine campaigns. Conversely, Eddie Howe’s squad is recording a greater pass completion percentage outside the offensive third than in any season within that identical period.
While not yet reflected in their match outcomes or even consistent displays, Brighton exhibits characteristics of a side that frequently accumulates points: they boast the league’s lowest PPDA and a build-up pass completion rate surpassing all but last season’s top four and Aston Villa. Furthermore, they possess a theoretically extensive and skilled roster.
I remain somewhat unconvinced – not every coach and collection of athletes can translate high pressing and ball retention into consistent victories – yet, with careful consideration, one might persuade themselves that the Seagulls possess a greater potential than any club outside of the six preceding them in these evaluations.
For those still deliberating whether the Premier League’s standard has declined or if all its constituent teams are simply strong, permit me to draw your attention to events unfolding in North London.
This illustrates Tottenham’s home performance versus West Ham.
Following that, they produced this display against Borussia Dortmund, also on their home turf:
Their foundational statistics within the league are genuinely dreadful — ranking 16th! — yet they presently occupy fifth position with a single fixture remaining in the Champions League group stage. They maintain a one-point lead over PSG, the reigning European titleholders.
I view this particular outcome as a positive for our rating system.
A … triumph? A triumph?!?! This squad shares second place, and you claim a proprietary algorithm placing them beneath Brighton and Spurs is performing effectively? It categorizes them as the league’s most middling side!
To address my italicized inner critic: Ranking systems become superfluous if they merely mirror the official league table. For such information, simply consult the standings! Our endeavor is to pinpoint the foundational elements contributing to success and subsequently employ these to ascertain which teams are most probable to accrue points going forward.
Concurrently, an exclusive focus on expected goals would place this club as low as 12th. Villa undeniably possesses superior talent, and by underscoring their distinctive, ‘City-lite’ methodology of deliberate possession devoid of aggressive pressing, I believe we are discerning some of the rationales behind why Unai Emery’s squads consistently exceed their statistical projections annually.
2:42
Why Aston Villa are ‘not title contenders’ after loss to Everton
Frank Leboeuf and Craig Burley review Aston Villa’s 1-0 defeat to Everton in the Premier League.
Here lies a scenario where, solely based on statistical analysis and match observations, I’d assert that Brentford significantly surpasses Tottenham in quality. Yet, if faced with a life-or-death wager on a neutral ground fixture between them, I’d likely favor Tottenham? Which would probably lead to my demise? It’s unclear.
Brentford’s performance this season has been exceptional, but their methodology is one that struggles to consistently translate into overwhelming displays.
Excluding only their point total, this squad registers as marginally sub-par across all indicators: their pressing, passing, chance creation, chance concession, and inherent talent all align with a slightly inferior classification.
Within the league, six clubs achieve less than 80% pass completion beyond the offensive third, with five of those simultaneously ranking among the bottom six for PPDA. This configuration is quite typical: teams adopt a deep defensive stance, absorb opposing pressure, and then launch counter-attacks using direct, higher-risk passes. This strategy has served as the classic underdog tactic since an early innovator in Scotland understood that passing to a colleague was permissible.
However, regarding the sixth team in that category? It is Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth, who demonstrate a more intense pressing approach than any other side except Brighton and Chelsea.
Marco Silva’s squad benefits from its exceptional ball retention capabilities outside the attacking third. While their performance is otherwise below average, they manage to complete a greater proportion of their build-up passes than all but six other teams.
Silva is extracting performance levels from this roster — an older group largely devoid of elite skill — that exceed expectations, and I posit that their distinct tactical blueprint accounts for a portion of this overachievement.
If these evaluations had commenced sooner, I believe they would have foreseen Palace’s present decline. Not, mind you, the organizational breakdown, where their captain was permitted to depart for a lower sum than previously presented during the summer, followed by their manager’s declaration of his post-season exit, and then his scathing critique of the club’s squad construction strategy in a post-match press conference.
However, despite displaying genuinely strong performances throughout the initial months of the campaign, Palace achieved this without asserting any real command: neither over possession nor over opposing areas of the pitch.
Should a prominent club consider appointing Oliver Glasner, they must ascertain if he can implement a distinct approach with a superior player roster and a significantly higher performance expectation.
Having ascended to 16th in the standings, they now find themselves nearer to tenth position than to the relegation spots. My advocacy for “Daniel Farke as Manager of the Year” is proving unstoppable.
This particular inclusion on the list astonished me more than any other. Everton sits in 10th! Featuring Jack Grealish! Merely three points shy of fifth! They just defeated Aston Villa! Yet, these assessments position them as nearly comparable to Wolves.
What explains this? Their expected-goal difference ranks only 16th, and their playstyle remains the quintessential, unadulterated ‘David Moyes football,’ characterized by minimal pressing or deliberate ball retention.
I believe I continue to categorize Wolves within my “league’s bottom three” bracket, yet their placement here indicates several points: they’ve demonstrated an ability to press and dictate possession in a manner uncommon for other teams at risk of relegation, and their fundamental displays have significantly surpassed what their historically poor point tally implies.
A contributing factor to the likely absence of a relegation skirmish is that the club presently occupying 18th position genuinely represents the 18th-strongest side in the division.
An additional rationale for the probable lack of a relegation fight stems from the fact that the side with the league’s second-lowest expected-goal difference (Sunderland) trails the previous Premier League champions (Liverpool) by merely two points.
To summarize Sunderland’s predicament: they presently possess a greater likelihood of securing a Champions League spot than facing demotion, yet they are simultaneously poised to be among the primary contenders for relegation prior to the commencement of the next campaign.
Analysts of sports data frequently reference the ‘Messi test’: a method to confirm the efficacy of any player valuation metric involves verifying if Lionel Messi occupies the premier position. In developing these rankings, I applied a comparable principle: as long as Burnley resided at the very bottom, I was confident in my methodology.
