Reflecting on Week 12, my NFL predictions were neither a disaster nor a cause for celebration.
My straight-up record was 12-2, which I’ll gladly accept, but a 6-8 record against the spread is disappointing. Some late-game occurrences contributed to that result.
Currently, my ATS record stands at 91-87, and my straight-up record is 122-55-1, both respectable, though not exceptional.
Thanksgiving Week always presents a unique challenge, with four games taking place before the weekend officially begins.
The trio of Thanksgiving Day matchups, along with the Black Friday game, all offer compelling storylines, with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Dallas Cowboys on CBS being particularly captivating. The viewership numbers for that game should be incredibly high.
I’m favoring the Chiefs in that particular contest, but here are my predictions for the remaining games this week.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This contest marks Shedeur Sanders’ inaugural home start for the Browns. He performed admirably last week in their victory over the Raiders. However, the Browns’ defense will be the deciding factor here, proving to be extremely difficult to score against. Expect Brock Purdy to encounter difficulties against them, though he will ultimately find a way to secure a narrow victory late in the game.
Pick: 49ers 21, Browns 20 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This is a potential trap game for the Jaguars, with the Colts looming on their schedule next week. It’s also their second consecutive game on the road, at a venue where they haven’t traditionally performed well. Expect the Titans to remain competitive in this one, but the Jaguars will ultimately prevail in the closing moments.
Pick: Jaguars 21, Titans 17 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is still under concussion protocol, suggesting he might be sidelined. If so, Davis Mills, who has performed adequately, would likely get another start. The Texans’ defense has been instrumental in the team’s improved performance. The Colts suffered a defeat to the Chiefs last week, but they will prioritize something in this game that they should have emphasized more in that previous matchup: feeding Jonathan Taylor the ball. Anticipate a hard-fought, close victory for the Colts.
Pick: Colts 23, Texans 21 | Odds via BetMGM
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Falcons are on the road for the second week in a row, which is never easy. They managed to defeat the Saints last week, largely due to their defensive efforts. Their defense will likely perform well again in this game, but I anticipate a strong showing from the Jets’ defense as well. Expect a low-scoring affair, with the Jets pulling off an upset victory at home.
Pick: Jets 19, Falcons 16 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Dolphins are coming off a bye week, preceded by two consecutive victories. Their success has been fueled by a potent running game, led by De’Von Achane, and an improved defensive performance. The Saints’ offensive struggles will likely be a factor in this game. Miami appears to have resolved some issues, and that will be evident in this contest. Miami wins comfortably.
Pick: Dolphins 28, Saints 16 | Odds via BetMGM
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield sustained a shoulder sprain on Sunday night, casting doubt on his availability for this game. Teddy Bridgewater could potentially step in. He’s certainly a capable backup. The Cardinals have found some success with Jacoby Brissett throwing the ball, but their offense lacks versatility. The Tampa Bay defense underperformed against the Rams, but I expect them to rebound in this game. The Bucs will emerge victorious.
Pick: Bucs 27, Cardinals 20 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
This is a lengthy road trip for the Rams, but they are facing a Panthers team that is coming off a Monday night game on the West Coast. That essentially evens things out. The Rams boast an MVP-caliber player in Matt Stafford on offense, and their defense is performing at a high level. Bryce Young struggled on Monday night, and I expect him to face similar challenges in this game. The Rams will win, but the Panthers will remain competitive, thanks to their defense.
Pick: Rams 24, Panthers 16 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
This game marks Sam Darnold’s revenge opportunity against the team he played for in 2025. He guided that Vikings team to the playoffs, but they ultimately decided not to retain him. He’s currently playing at a high level, while the Vikings are grappling with quarterback issues. With struggling J.J. McCarthy still in concussion protocol, rookie Max Brosmer could potentially make his first start. That’s a daunting prospect on the road, and even more so in Seattle. Expect a decisive victory for the Seahawks.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Vikings 9 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This is a crucial game for both of these teams. Both are coming off losses on the road. The Steelers might have Aaron Rodgers back in the lineup for this one, which would be a welcome boost. The Bills will have the advantage of extra rest after playing last Thursday. That extra time should allow them to get back on track. I anticipate the Bills’ passing attack exploiting the Steelers’ pass defense. The Bills should secure the win.
Pick: Bills 31, Steelers 22 | Odds via BetMGM
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Chargers are coming off a bye week, while the Raiders are reeling from a dismal performance in their loss to the Browns. That offensive showing resulted in the firing of their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly. However, that change is unlikely to make a significant difference. The Raiders’ offense is currently anemic due to a struggling offensive line. The Chargers’ offensive line isn’t particularly strong either, but I’m giving the edge to Justin Herbert over Geno Smith. The Chargers will prevail.
Pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 10 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
The Commanders will once again be without Jayden Daniels as they face a Broncos team coming off a bye week. The Broncos possess a formidable defense, while the Commanders’ defense is not particularly strong. That defensive disparity will be the deciding factor in this game. The Broncos’ defense will effectively shut down Marcus Mariota and the Commanders’ offense.
Pick: Broncos 22, Commanders 10 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Patriots are currently on a nine-game winning streak, while the Giants have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Where will the Giants find motivation, especially with consecutive weeks of playing on the road? The Patriots and Drake Maye will head into their bye week riding a 10-game winning streak as they take care of business against the Giants.
Pick: Patriots 31, Giants 21 | Odds via BetMGM
