Ultimately, an insufficiency of quality pitchers in the rotation wasn’t the only reason for the 2025 Red Sox’s struggles.
The team’s disastrous performance against the Yankees in the postseason bracket was the result of an inconsistent offense that went cold at the worst possible moment. After a strong Game 1 win thanks to a stellar performance from Garrett Crochet, Boston’s batters appeared lethargic and struggled to score, managing just one run over the last several innings of their season.
But the starting pitchers in those games didn’t exactly excel, either.
An unexpected injury to Lucas Giolito forced Brayan Bello to start Game 2, and rookie left-hander Connelly Early was unexpectedly assigned to Game 3. Bello only recorded seven outs. Early pitched into the fourth inning but allowed several runs. Only a strong showing from Boston’s bullpen kept the score close.
If the Red Sox had somehow beaten the Yankees, their pitching would have needed a significant boost to defeat the Blue Jays, who eventually won the AL championship. Boston’s pitching rotation simply wasn’t up to par.
Red Sox management clearly recognized this issue.
The team’s leading executive, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, was direct during the GM meetings when questioned about the team’s rotation plans. “Starting pitching,” he said plainly when team reporters, including MLB.com’s Ian Browne, inquired about the team’s offseason goals. “And specifically, someone who can either start alongside Garrett or be second in line and start a playoff game for us.”
The Red Sox have now addressed that need — in a way. It all hinges on how you view Sonny Gray.
On Tuesday, the experienced right-hander was traded from St. Louis to Boston for two young pitchers, Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke. Gray had to waive his no-trade clause for the deal to be finalized. Crucially, the Cardinals are contributing funds to the Red Sox to cover a significant portion of his contract, which was adjusted as part of the trade.
Gray’s original salary for 2026 was $35 million, with a $5 million buyout for a 2027 player option that was unlikely to be used. This has been changed; Gray will now be paid $31 million this season, and the buyout has increased to $10 million. Overall, Gray earns an extra million for waiving his no-trade clause, and the Red Sox postpone some of the financial burden of his contract.
The result of all this financial maneuvering is that Gray will cost Boston around $21 million next year.
This is a fair price for a pitcher with Gray’s history of reliability. He has pitched 531 innings since 2023, ranking him among the top in baseball. During that period — which started with a year in Minnesota before he joined St. Louis as a free agent — the 36-year-old has been a consistently above-average starter (3.63 ERA). While his overall stats have slightly decreased each year, his underlying performance metrics have remained stable.
Gray excels in two key areas of pitching: limiting walks and accumulating strikeouts. Among pitchers who started at least 30 games in 2025, only Bryan Woo, Garrett Crochet, and Tarik Skubal had better strikeout-to-walk ratios. Gray also achieved a Maddux this past season (a complete game with fewer than 100 pitches). Despite his age, he remains effective.
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However, there are some concerns, notably Gray’s declining fastball speed. His two fastballs — a four-seamer and a sinker — averaged only 92 mph in 2025, placing him in the lower percentile for fastball velocity. As a result, Gray’s four-seamer was frequently hit hard by batters. The pitch’s lack of velocity allowed hitters to pull it in the air, leading to a high opposing slugging percentage against his four-seamer.
Another unique aspect of Gray is that he throws to the outside of the plate against right-handed hitters more often than most other right-handed pitchers. In 2025, only Jacob deGrom threw a higher percentage of pitches (84.4%) on the outer half to righties than Gray (78.9%). This suggests that: 1) He no longer has the fastball speed to consistently pitch inside, and 2) he is relying more on his breaking pitches.
This strategy should align with Boston’s focus on off-speed pitches. Expect Gray to use his curveball and sweeper more in 2026, two pitches that performed well during his last season with St. Louis. If he can consistently locate these pitches and prevent his fastball from being hit hard, Gray should continue to be an impactful starter.
The key question is, how impactful?
If you believe Gray is a definite No. 2 starter who can support Crochet, this trade is a significant success. If you view him as more of a late-rotation innings eater, then you might think Breslow needs to acquire another top-tier pitcher. In other words, Gray is the kind of pitcher you’d trust to start a playoff game, but ideally in Game 3 or Game 4, rather than Game 2.
The Red Sox paid a considerable price to determine Gray’s true value. Fitts, acquired from the Yankees in the 2023 Alex Verdugo trade, struggled in 2025 but could become a reliable reliever or a late-rotation option. Given that he still has several years of control, he is a valuable asset. Clarke, however, could be the biggest gain. The tall left-hander, drafted by Boston in 2024, possesses exceptional raw talent but lacks control. He walked almost a batter per inning in 2025 but didn’t allow any home runs and recorded impressive strikeout rates. Clarke also missed time due to an injury. He is a high-risk, high-reward pitcher, and if he can harness his potential, he could develop into an All-Star. He is a good addition for a rebuilding Cardinals team.
There’s also the significant amount now committed to Gray. This is a considerable sum for a Red Sox team that has recently tried to stay below the luxury tax threshold. Boston would like to re-sign Alex Bregman. If they don’t, another offensive acquisition seems likely. All of this costs money, potentially preventing the Red Sox from making another major addition to their pitching rotation.
None of this is Gray’s responsibility; he is a useful player who should improve Boston’s team. However, as is often the case, the success of this trade will depend on what happens during the rest of the offseason.
