In a matter of hours, the 2026 NCAA tournament bracket will be revealed. Currently, the focus is entirely on the bubble, where various squads are either competing for an automatic entry or anticipating whether their overall performance merits an at-large berth in March Madness.
As conference tournaments conclude and Selection Sunday draws near, Yahoo Sports is providing an analysis of the teams still on the bubble this year.
REMINDER: KenPom standings reflect updates as of 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, and all NCAA WAB and NET metrics, along with team statistics, are current through contests played on March 13.
Miami (Ohio)
Record: 31-1 (18-0 MAC)
KenPom ranking: 93
WAB ranking: 38
NET ranking: 64
The RedHawks are widely expected to secure a spot, even after their defeat to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals. They stand as the first team to achieve an unblemished regular season since Gonzaga in 2020-21, and critically, they rank within the top 40 of the crucial “Wins Above Bubble” (WAB) metric. This metric serves as a mechanism to offset variations in strength of schedule, by comparing a team’s total wins against the number of victories a typical bubble team would accrue facing an identical schedule.
Dan Gavitt, NCAA senior vice president of basketball, informed CBS Sports that the previous year’s selection of the final at-large teams for the 68-team bracket demonstrated a “stronger correlation” with a team’s WAB ranking than its NET ranking, which factors in opponent caliber, performance efficiency, and game location. KenPom places Miami at merely 93rd, yet, per ESPN, a qualified team with only one loss has historically always made the contemporary NCAA tournament. A 31-1 record combined with a top-40 WAB standing will likely propel the RedHawks into the competition and grant the MAC multiple invitations for the first time since the 1998-99 season.
Peter Suder holds the title of MAC Player of the Year, spearheading a roster of six RedHawks who achieve double-digit scoring averages. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
(Dylan Buell via Getty Images)
Missouri
Record: 20-12 (10-8 SEC)
KenPom ranking: 52
WAB ranking: 41
NET ranking: 58
From late January through February, a series of performances suggested the Tigers were a definite lock for the NCAA tournament. During this period, they secured victories in six out of eight contests, notably defeating then-No. 19 Vanderbilt and then-No. 22 Tennessee. However, head coach Dennis Gates’ squad has suffered defeats in all three of its March games, including a second-round elimination in the SEC tournament against Kentucky.
This damaging slump commenced with a 16-point loss to an Oklahoma team that also finds itself on the bubble. Despite this, the Tigers benefit from having five Quad 1 wins. Should they ultimately qualify for the NCAA tournament, there’s a possibility of a swift exit. The team ranks among the nation’s lowest third in both free-throw percentage (68.6%) and opponent 3-point percentage (36.5%).
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Saint Louis
Record: 28-5 (15-3 A-10)
KenPom ranking: 41
WAB ranking: 37
NET ranking: 29
The A-10 might see an unexpected team claim a bid. Dayton is just one win away from clinching the conference tournament title, having secured a dramatic semifinal victory against Saint Louis on Saturday, thanks to Amaël L’Etang’s game-winning tip-in. This single defeat is unlikely to jeopardize the Billikens’ prospects. They maintained a presence in the AP Top 25 throughout the latter half of January and all of February. Their resume includes two Quad 1 wins, one of which came against Santa Clara, another team poised for the NCAA tournament. Furthermore, they boast a WAB ranking within the top 40.
However, if Dayton triumphs over VCU in the A-10 championship, the selection committee will face a dilemma between Saint Louis and VCU, assuming the conference is granted only two berths. This situation would create unease for a Billikens team that showed such promise during the second season under Josh Schertz but has dropped four of its last eight matchups and required significant second-half rallies to win two others.
VCU
Record: 26-7 (15-3 A-10)
KenPom ranking: 46
WAB ranking: 42
NET ranking: 44
The Rams concluded their regular season with an impressive surge, securing victories in 13 of their final 14 games. Their sole defeat during this period? It came at the hands of then-No. 18 Saint Louis, a team that also entered the conference tournament with a 15-3 A-10 standing.
VCU aims to qualify for consecutive NCAA tournaments, a feat not accomplished since their run of seven straight appearances from 2011-17. During that era, Shaka Smart and then Will Wade guided the Rams. Currently, Phil Martelli Jr. is at the helm. Under his leadership this season, VCU holds a 2-5 record in Quad 1 games, according to BartTorvik, with their most significant wins occurring against South Florida on November 26 and Dayton on March 6. Should they achieve another victory over the Flyers on Sunday, the Rams will be crowned A-10 champions and remove themselves from bubble contention.
Phil Martelli Jr. is the newest head coach to elevate VCU into the discussion for an NCAA tournament spot. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
(Mitchell Layton via Getty Images)
SMU
Record: 20-13 (8-10 ACC)
KenPom ranking: 42
WAB ranking: 46
NET ranking: 37
SMU experienced a significant downturn in their season’s closing period. The Mustangs lost five of their last six contests, concluding with a second-round ACC tournament elimination against No. 24 Louisville, a game that Andy Enfield’s squad nearly secured. Indeed, SMU held a multi-possession advantage for over 12 minutes in the second half. Despite this, the Mustangs—who once held a 19-8 record, including 8-6 in ACC play—are now left to anticipate their selection fate.
Adding to SMU’s anxiety, they possess one fewer Quad 1 victory than Stanford, another team on the bubble, and the Cardinal defeated the Mustangs decisively by 20 points on February 28. However, Stanford’s overall portfolio is not as strong as SMU’s, and the Cardinal squandered a chance to enhance it by exiting the conference tournament in the first round against Pitt. SMU’s offensive unit, prominently featuring Boopie Miller (19.2 points per game) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 ppg), ranks 27th in adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom.
Texas
Record: 18-14 (9-9 SEC)
KenPom ranking: 37
WAB ranking: 47
NET ranking: 42
Texas also faltered significantly in the final portion of its schedule. The Longhorns’ late-season stumble was substantial, potentially jeopardizing their inclusion in the NCAA tournament. They, too, dropped five of their last six contests, including a notable first-round departure from the SEC tournament to a 14-win Ole Miss team that had managed only four conference victories throughout the regular season before advancing to the SEC tourney semifinals.
Texas’s late-season struggles weren’t merely about losing pivotal games; they often involved severe defeats. This series of losses featured an 11-point loss to a Georgia team they had previously overcome, a 13-point defeat to then-No. 7 Florida, and a humiliating 20-point rout by then-No. 20 Arkansas. The Longhorns, led by Dailyn Swain, a projected first-round NBA Draft selection, possess six Quad 1 wins, which are currently sustaining their tournament hopes.
Oklahoma
Record: 19-15 (7-11 SEC)
KenPom ranking: 40
WAB ranking: 49
NET ranking: 47
Among the critical defeats Texas endured was one against Oklahoma. The Sooners secured that victory in overtime, on their opponent’s home court. This constitutes one of the four Quad 1 triumphs registered by head coach Porter Moser’s team this season. Moser, whose position was precarious last season before he led Oklahoma to an unforeseen NCAA tournament berth, is again attempting to orchestrate a similar turnaround.
The Sooners concluded a regular season marred by an early nine-game losing streak in SEC play by winning six of their final eight contests. Adding two more wins in the SEC tournament—including a significant Quad 1 victory over Texas A&M—has suddenly propelled Oklahoma into the March Madness discussion. Similar to Saint Louis, Miami, and SMU, Oklahoma ranks within the top 35 nationally for 3-point percentage. Their 36.8% shooting accuracy from beyond the arc has the potential to introduce unpredictability.
Auburn
Record: 17-16 (7-11 SEC)
KenPom ranking: 38
WAB ranking: 44
NET ranking: 39
Could an at-large team with 16 defeats enter the NCAA tournament? Auburn has been working to build its argument. The Tigers possess four Quad 1 victories, with two of these being Quad 1-A wins, according to BartTorvik. It is notable, however, that both of these significant wins occurred prior to February: Auburn triumphed over then-No. 14 St. John’s on November 26 at the Players Era Festival and overcame then-No. 16 Florida on the road on January 24.
Auburn maintained a position in the AP Top 25 until mid-December. By the close of January, their standing appeared solid at 14-8. Yet, on the final day of that month, the Tigers embarked on the first of five consecutive losses. These defeats accumulated, leading the season to decline with a 3-9 record across their final 12 games. While Auburn has indeed navigated the third-most challenging schedule, as per KenPom, a 17-16 record remains a 17-16 record.
San Diego State
Record: 22-11 (14-6 Mountain West)
KenPom ranking: 47
WAB ranking: 45
NET ranking: 45
Should the Mountain West be granted a second bid this year, San Diego State stands a good chance of being the conference’s at-large qualifier. Their prospects likely improved over New Mexico’s when junior guard BJ Davis propelled the Aztecs past the Lobos with a decisive game-winning layup in the Mountain West tournament semifinals. This win furnished coach Brian Dutcher’s squad with a much-needed third Quad 1 win.
SDSU has secured a trip to the NCAA tournament five years in a row, with their 2023 campaign being particularly noteworthy as the program reached its first Final Four and concluded as the national runner-up. Their KenPom rankings for those years were 30th (2021), 25th (2022), 14th (2023), 22nd (2024), and 51st (2025). Currently at 45th following their defeat to Utah State in Saturday’s conference championship game, the Aztecs’ participation in the tournament is now a close call.
New Mexico
Record: 23-10 (13-7 Mountain West)
KenPom ranking: 49
WAB ranking: 58
NET ranking: 46
As previously noted, New Mexico’s prospects for the NCAA tournament suffered a potentially critical blow on Friday, with a place in the Mountain West championship game hanging in the balance. The Lobos must now anxiously await the decisions of Selection Sunday. New Mexico needs the committee to prioritize its overall body of work over SDSU’s, despite their recent direct confrontation. It’s worth recalling that the Lobos did prevail against the Aztecs earlier in the season, specifically on February 28.
Nevertheless, what followed were three defeats for New Mexico in its subsequent four games. The conference tournament clash between these teams on Friday ultimately determined their respective Quad 1 win counts. New Mexico has accumulated only two such victories this season. While the Lobos boast a superior overall win-loss record, the Aztecs hold higher WAB and NET rankings and faced a somewhat more formidable schedule.
Indiana
Record: 18-14 (9-11 Big Ten)
KenPom ranking: 45
WAB ranking: 52
NET ranking: 41
During his inaugural season as head coach, Darian DeVries, previously a prominent figure at Drake and West Virginia, has positioned Indiana on the bubble. The Hoosiers possess an opportunity to secure a final at-large spot for the formidable Big Ten, but they undeniably hindered their own chances during the season’s last month. Indiana dropped six of its final seven games, leading to a quick exit from the conference tournament with a 13-point loss to Northwestern in the second round. This marked the Hoosiers’ second defeat to the Wildcats within approximately two weeks.
Additionally, Indiana suffered a 20-point loss to then-No. 8 Illinois, was routed by then-No. 7 Purdue by 29 points, and fell to then-No. 13 Michigan State by 13 points. Indiana’s three Quad 1 victories occurred between January 27 and February 7, when the Hoosiers overcame a 12th-ranked Boilermakers team, along with NCAA tournament-bound UCLA and Wisconsin. However, the Hoosiers have not displayed the form seen in those winning performances for some time.
