A mere two days after his champion 2-year-old colt, Ted Noffey, was sidelined from contention for the 2026 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve due to an injury, the esteemed Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher seemingly uncovered a promising successor.
Nearly secured his third consecutive impressive victory for the Centennial Farms ownership, triumphing over five other 3-year-olds in the $267,5000 Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, contested over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park on January 31st.
Nearly’s decisive win by 5 3/4 lengths, clocking 1:44.52 on a fast track with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard, firmly established him as a legitimate contender for the Derby.
“I don’t really consider it as one horse stepping in for another,” Pletcher commented on his two promising colts. “It’s simply that this particular horse has been performing exceptionally well independently, and we’ve always held considerable expectations for him. We’re pleased to have him.”
The Holy Bull race distributed qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby using a 20-10-6-4-2 distribution to the top five finishers. The Florida-bred Nearly accumulated 20 points, positioning him prominently on the current standings. Officials at Churchill Downs utilize these qualifying points as a preferential ranking system when the Derby field exceeds its maximum capacity of 20 horses.
Nearly, who had previously won his two preceding races by a combined margin of 14 1/4 lengths, started cleanly on Saturday, maintaining a position outside the 3-2 favorite, Cannoneer. Cannoneer set initial fractions of 22.82 and 45.96 under pressure from Nearly, before Nearly edged ahead for the first time after six furlongs, recorded in 1:10.32.
“Our intention was to secure a forward position entering the first turn, not necessarily leading, but in a strong stalking spot,” Pletcher remarked concerning Nearly and Velazquez’s strategy. “He veered slightly inward at the break, but recovered. Those two horses proceeded into the first turn. They were moving at a brisk pace, and it appeared he settled into a comfortable rhythm.”
This marked Pletcher’s third triumph in the Holy Bull, while Velazquez secured his second victory in the event.
Velazquez observed that Nearly, who returned $5.40 for a win, showed significant maturation during the race.
“He displayed a bit more aggression today. He hasn’t behaved like that before. Typically, it takes him a little while to find his stride, but today he was ready from the start,” Velazquez stated. “In this race, he elevated his performance to an entirely new level.”
Bravaro claimed second place, earning 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Project Ace finished 2 3/4 lengths behind Bravaro in third, securing six points. Cannoneer placed fourth, receiving four points, followed by Global Aviator with two points in fifth. Incredibolt completed the finishing order.
Pletcher indicated that Nearly’s probable next outing would be in the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28. Pletcher, a trainer with two Kentucky Derby victories to his name, holds a record of eight wins in the Florida Derby. — Charlie McCarthy
