Investigate our arranged starting pitcher standings and supplementary roster selection tools on this website. These assets could potentially assist you in formulating well-informed fantasy baseball roster determinations. MLB wagering suggestions for each day’s arrangement of contests are scheduled to be incorporated during the morning. MLB match probabilities are delivered by ESPN BET
, and each piece of fantasy guidance is structured in accordance with ESPN 10-team leagues utilizing a normal scoring framework.
Note: Every piece of information is correct as of the instance of distribution. For revisions, encompassing details you might have overlooked from the prior evening, in conjunction with any late-breaking intelligence that could potentially influence today’s MLB roster of games, ensure you consult the latest fantasy baseball news.
Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to stream Sunday
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Yu Darvish has shown caution with allowing long hits during recent periods. However, recently, Darvish has been experiencing challenges with home runs. The seasoned player has permitted a minimum of one home run in seven sequential matches, accumulating nine over 33⅔ innings. Darvish should counteract this propensity when the San Diego Padres welcome the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies display one of the lowest home run percentages while on the road, additionally diminished by Petco Park.
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Jose Quintana has exceeded his predicted statistics for the majority of the year. Nevertheless, the left-handed player has documented a 7.56 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP throughout his previous three appearances, encompassing 16⅔ innings. Even amidst these struggles, Quintana achieved pitching into the seventh inning in his previous two endeavors, sustaining his points league scoring. The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals, with the visiting team exhibiting susceptibility to left-handed pitching, showcasing one of the lowest home run percentages with a southpaw on the mound.
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Slade Cecconi is progressing from one of the most accomplished performances of his career, prohibiting the Kansas City Royals from scoring throughout eight frames, sustaining the Cleveland Guardians within reach of the AL wild-card pursuit. Following a prolonged effort, the squad may manage innings during the subsequent appearance; however, Cecconi threw a reasonable 100 pitches, suggesting the absence of restrictions when he encounters the Chicago White Sox at home.
Pitchers to avoid Sunday
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Sunday signifies the concluding day of Playoff Round 1 in ESPN head-to-head leagues, so your team necessities influence risk aversion; however, exercise caution, as Aaron Nola isn’t risk-free, irrespective of coming off his most impressive performance of the period. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Kansas City Royals during the concluding game of the weekend interleague set. Throughout the four matches prior to Nola stifling the New York Mets last time out, the veteran registered an 8.38 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Royals’ challenging “move-the-line” offense is the type that might present Nola with difficulties, considering his command and control haven’t fully returned.
Today’s best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.33 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.52 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.
Today’s worst matchups for pitchers
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.04 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.97 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.94 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Sunday
Today’s best matchups for hitters
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Orioles pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Today’s worst matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .258 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Rays pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Optimal/suboptimal pitcher/hitter matchups and wagering predictions are created by THE BAT X, a framework devised by Derek Carty through the utilization of sophisticated methodologies akin to those implemented in MLB front offices, accommodating numerous aspects, including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, atmospheric conditions, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, among many others. Wagering forecasts for each player, team, and match can be accessed at EV Analytics.
Note: Anticipated Value constitutes a metric for gauging the efficacy of a wager, incorporating the probability of success versus the odds furnished by the bookmaker. Should you wager $1.00 a hundred times on a wager exhibiting an Anticipated Value of $25, there would be occurrences of both wins and losses. Ultimately, one could anticipate emerging with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today’s top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero Jr. hits a substantial portion of his flyballs towards center field (39%, positioning him in the 88th percentile) and is anticipated to hold a considerable advantage, encountering baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences throughout today’s match.
Alejandro Kirk | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.97 EV
One reason to bet this: Regarding home runs, Kirk has experienced adverse variability this year. His 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been lower than the projected expected HR/600 of 20.6.
Michael Harris II | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Projections estimate Harris’s accurate offensive talent to measure a .324 wOBA, which suggests that he has encountered instances of considerable misfortune this year, considering the .045 variance between that figure and his actual .279 wOBA.
Today’s top pitcher prop bets
Tyler Glasnow | UNDER 6.5 K (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.97 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2 mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for hitters.
Cade Cavalli | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Expected starting catcher Riley Adams projects to be a weak pitch framer.
German Marquez | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.61 EV
One reason to bet this: The Padres (projected 18.7 K%) are expected to have the least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on today’s slate.
Today’s top YRFI/NRFI bets
Angels @ Mariners | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $7.52 EV
Astros @ Braves | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $5.88 EV
Orioles @ Blue Jays | YRFI (+105)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $3.38 EV
