Superforecasting the 2026 F1 Season

As the initial week of January unfolds, a fresh start is presented, with an entirely new Formula 1 season on the horizon. Prior to any vehicle debuts or track action, all possibilities remain open, and parity exists among all competitors and their vehicles.

During this period, we enjoy contemplating the upcoming season and engaging in extensive predictions.

We undertook a similar exercise last year, and while some of those predictions proved quite precise, others have not stood the test of time effectively…

 

Which contenders will secure the 2026 F1 drivers’ and constructors’ global titles? What proportion of Max Verstappen’s accumulated points will be earned by his new teammate, Isack Hadjar? For comparison, Sergio Perez attained 49% in 2023, whereas Yuki Tsunoda only reached 8% in the previous year.

Which driver transfer will gain the most prominence this year, and which drivers will be departing the sport?

Which F1 team principals are unlikely to retain their positions in a year’s time?

Assisting us currently are two experts in the field: Dan Fallows, who previously served as Aston Martin’s technical director, Red Bull’s head of aerodynamics, and a regular guest on our podcast; alongside our F1 correspondent, Ronald Vording, who covers races globally.

Please direct any feedback or inquiries to: @jamesallenonf1 on X, or via email at jamesallenonf1@autosport.com.