The period leading up to the NHL trade deadline typically sees intense activity. This year, however, it has unfolded at a more deliberate pace. Despite a three-week Olympic break that offered ample opportunity for team management and player representatives to discuss potential deals, contract extensions, and other roster adjustments, the recent days have not delivered the burst of transactions many observers had anticipated.
Team executives have identified several elements contributing to the current sluggishness in the trade market as Friday’s deadline approaches:
1. Everyone is navigating the updated collective bargaining agreement regulations. As Greg Wyshynski noted on Monday, this includes the debut of a postseason salary cap. General managers are delaying decisions as long as possible, particularly concerning player health issues.
2. The updated rules regarding salary retention are also hindering transactions. Previously, a player with an $8 million contract could have his salary retained twice – once facilitated by a third-party intermediary – enabling a move to a contender for $2 million. Under this year’s rules, a player’s salary cannot be retained twice within a 75-day window. So, while a team can still offer up to 50% retention, accommodating $4 million instead of $2 million presents a significant fiscal challenge.
3. Exceedingly high demands. A handful of organizations have signaled their availability for transactions: the Canucks, the Blues, the Rangers, the Flames, and even the Maple Leafs. Yet, it remains a market favoring buyers, and those interested in acquiring talent suggest they are awaiting more financially viable agreements on Friday. Some of the most prominent potential buyers – including the Avalanche, the Wild, the Oilers, the Golden Knights, the Stars, and the Lightning – lack a first-round selection in the 2026 NHL draft, which is widely considered to be a strong class.
4. Competitive balance is at an all-time peak. The pursuit of the final wild-card position in the Western Conference is a tightly contested crawl. The Eastern Conference landscape is remarkably congested, with the top 10 clubs separated by just 14 points heading into Tuesday. One general manager conveyed to me this week that he needed to observe the outcome of his team’s concluding two games before determining its strategic direction for Friday.
All these factors contribute to the current impasse. Nevertheless, a single trade could trigger a cascade of further moves. Here is a look at the prevailing situation until then.
The contest in the Central Division, specifically between the Wild and the Stars. These two teams have been on a converging path toward a significant first-round clash. The Wild once again made an assertive move, sacrificing a 2028 second-round draft pick for bottom-six forward Michael McCarron. General Manager Bill Guerin is committing fully to propel his squad beyond the opening round of the playoffs for the first time since 2015. It’s important to remember, he still needs to persuade Quinn Hughes (who is eligible for a contract extension this summer) that remaining with the team is worthwhile, indicating Guerin’s work is not yet complete. I was informed even after the McCarron acquisition that the Wild were still pursuing Vincent Trocheck.
In the interim, the Stars are anticipated to respond with their own impactful actions. Initially, Dallas faced a difficult choice concerning Tyler Seguin. The center appeared fully recovered from his hip surgery and had returned to his previous form before suffering an ACL tear in December. Out of consideration for Seguin, the Stars allowed him to commence his rehabilitation to explore a possible return for the playoffs. Seguin dedicated himself fully to his recovery efforts. However, following the Olympic break, the challenging discussion took place: a medical comeback was highly improbable. By placing Seguin on season-ending long-term injury reserve, the Stars will gain complete access to his $9.85 million cap space. And they are expected to utilize it.
Then there are the Colorado Avalanche, who have not progressed beyond the first round of the playoffs since their championship victory in 2022. The Avalanche have created cap flexibility by trading Samuel Girard, and they appear poised to make a significant move. They have also explored the possibility of reuniting with Nazem Kadri.
New contenders present an element of unpredictability. It seems probable that there will be substantial changes from last season’s playoff contenders. What remains to be seen is the extent of aggression some of the emerging teams will exhibit. The Detroit Red Wings, assuming no catastrophic decline, are set to finally clinch their first playoff berth in a decade. Last year, Detroit players felt they merited additional support at the deadline, but General Manager Steve Yzerman chose to exercise patience. Will he alter his approach this time? Detroit is one team possessing the assets to make a substantial impact.
The Buffalo Sabres offer an even more compelling narrative, as they aim to end the longest playoff drought in NHL history (14 years). Since mid-December, when Buffalo underwent a general manager change, no team in the league has compiled a superior record (23-5-2).
The most significant decision appeared to revolve around pending unrestricted free agent Alex Tuch. New General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen has maintained open communication with Tuch’s agent, Brian Bartlett. However, even with extra discussion time during the Olympic break, they have not reached a consensus on the terms of a new contract. I do not anticipate them closing this gap before the trade deadline, but I also do not expect Tuch to be traded. They will postpone the decision until the summer. That might not be the extent of their activity. TSN reported Tuesday that the Sabres have been in talks for Robert Thomas, one of the premier centers available. I have also heard they are scouting for physically imposing defensemen.
This is an unusual year for the market of goaltenders. The Oilers have already executed their major transaction, exchanging Stuart Skinner for Tristan Jarry. Despite some initial struggles with Jarry (who recorded an .863 save percentage through his first 11 starts), indications suggest they are still exploring other potential solutions. Edmonton’s primary focus has now shifted to acquiring a third-line center.
The Blues have offered Jordan Binnington among their available players, but if he is moved, it appears more likely to be a summer deal. Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky’s contract expires this summer, and it does not seem that he and the team are close to an extension. While Florida is keeping details confidential, many individuals I speak with around the league are skeptical that Bobrovsky would be traded, even as the Panthers fall out of playoff contention.
It is uncertain if any team is currently seeking a goaltender. The Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes publicly state their satisfaction with their current netminders; privately, some executives believe both teams could be pursuing upgrades.
Everyone desires a right-shot defenseman. Beyond centers, naturally, a right-shot defenseman represents the most sought-after position in the league. Numerous teams are searching. Few are available. One player generating considerable interest is Philadelphia’s Rasmus Ristolainen, who can handle top-four minutes and brings a physical, playoff-ready style of play. Since a team would be acquiring him for two postseason runs, the Flyers have established a high asking price (a first-round draft pick, in addition to further assets). Philadelphia has no reservations about retaining Ristolainen; the Flyers will also require a top-four right-shot defenseman next season.
Being available for trades does not necessarily translate into numerous transactions. Again, many teams are dangling prominent players. The Blues found themselves in a similar situation last season, and nothing materialized from it. They subsequently embarked on a successful run and qualified for the playoffs. General Manager Doug Armstrong is adept at managing external pressures.
The Rangers went so far as to issue a statement outlining their intent to restructure. New York has already parted ways with Artemi Panarin and Carson Soucy, and they are open to discussions regarding many players, but there is no guarantee that the departures will extend beyond that. The most probable player to be moved is Trocheck. The league expects it, and so does the player. There has been significant interest from teams other than Minnesota, whose trade proposal I believe centers around prospect Charlie Stramel and a 2027 first-round draft pick, as well as another player or prospect. Trocheck possesses a 12-team no-trade clause and has indicated that many West Coast teams are on it, due to family considerations. Rangers General Manager Chris Drury has conveyed to his counterparts that because Trocheck is under contract for three additional seasons, he is not obligated to make a move now. This could merely be a negotiating tactic.
Some teams are complete unpredictables. The Penguins entered this season appearing poised for a rebuild. However, General Manager Kyle Dubas and first-year coach Dan Muse have navigated the situation effectively. Even without Sidney Crosby for a month, Pittsburgh possesses sufficient depth to remain firmly in a playoff position. The team has 11 players who will become free agents this summer, with none being more significant than Evgeni Malkin. They are not close to a new contract for Malkin but also have no intention of trading him. Dubas aims to continue his strategy of making hockey trades to bolster the roster with players in their mid-20s, an area where the team is lacking.
The Bruins offloaded talent at last year’s deadline, making difficult and emotionally charged cuts. Yet, they have been one of the league’s early-season surprises, largely due to strong coaching by Marco Sturm. General Manager Don Sweeney stated his players have earned “an enhancement,” though he maintains it will not be excessively aggressive.
Meanwhile, Utah and Seattle have recently pursued significant deals. Both were interested in Panarin. Eventually, they are expected to connect on a transaction.
